Fantasy Mashup

Where have all the RBs gone?

Ask anybody who has ever played fantasy football and they'll tell you that running backs are the kings of the game. This is practically an article of faith, based on decades of statistics and some simple but reliable observations about strategy.  It's the reason that most owners will draft two running backs before they address any other position. It's why an excellent wide reciever can often be had for a mediocre RB in trade.

It's also why your fantasy league has been generating some unexpected winners in 2006. Rushing touchdown production among the league's top ground-gainers is down -- way down -- over the first three weeks of the season. Compared to full-year statistics from 2005, per-game rushing touchdown production among the top 12 NFL rushers (the group fantasy players generally refer to as "No. 1 RBs") is down an eye-popping 36 percent this season.

The top 12 rushers of 2005 generated .69 rushing touchdowns per game. In 2006, that group is producing just .44 touchdowns per game. The rate drops only slightly why we look at the top 24 rushers, who are scoring .41 touchdown per game, adjusted for byes.

The downward trend is less pronounced when the comparison is applied across the league's top 24 rushers, but it doesn't go away. Among these likely starters, rushing TD production is down about 21 percent.

I don't have time to do a full analysis this morning, but look at some quick indicators and you'll spot the outline of a larger trend: After three weeks of play, NFL defenses are stuffing the run in ways that could change fantasy strategy.

• Four of the top five NFL rushers this season have yet to score a rushing touchdown.
• Five of the top 12 rushers have a yards-per-carry average below the magic 4.0 threshold. Last year only one of the top 12 held that dubious distinction.
• The No. 12 rusher in the NFL is a quarterback.
• Six of the top 24 are either backups or members of Running Back By Committee systems.

The big question: Why? Has the current arms race between offensive and defensive strategy made running the ball less effective? Has the evolution of offensive line philosophy emphasized pass protection over run production? Is there less talent? Or was 2005 the anomaly?

In the meantime, fantasy football players should be prepared to adjust their roster philosophy. If the era of the dominant Franchise RB is in decline, then the position might become more like WR, where situational matchups and waiver-wire scouting make up a big part of the game.

Originally posted on Xark! on Sept. 26, 2006.

                

It's also why your fantasy league has been generating some unexpected winners in 2006. Rushing touchdown production among the league's top ground-gainers is down -- way down -- over the first three weeks of the season. Compared to full-year statistics from 2005, per-game rushing touchdown production among the top 12 NFL rushers (the group fantasy players generally refer to as "No. 1 RBs") is down an eye-popping 36 percent this season.

The top 12 rushers of 2005 generated .69 rushing touchdowns per game. In 2006, that group is producing just .44 touchdowns per game. The rate drops only slightly why we look at the top 24 rushers, who are scoring .41 touchdown per game, adjusted for byes.

The downward trend is less pronounced when the comparison is applied across the league's top 24 rushers, but it doesn't go away. Among these likely starters, rushing TD production is down about 21 percent.

I don't have time to do a full analysis this morning, but look at some quick indicators and you'll spot the outline of a larger trend: After three weeks of play, NFL defenses are stuffing the run in ways that could change fantasy strategy.

• Four of the top five NFL rushers this season have yet to score a rushing touchdown.
• Five of the top 12 rushers have a yards-per-carry average below the magic 4.0 threshold. Last year only one of the top 12 held that dubious distinction.
• The No. 12 rusher in the NFL is a quarterback.
• Six of the top 24 are either backups or members of Running Back By Committee systems.

The big question: Why? Has the current arms race between offensive and defensive strategy made running the ball less effective? Has the evolution of offensive line philosophy emphasized pass protection over run production? Is there less talent? Or was 2005 the anomaly?

In the meantime, fantasy football players should be prepared to adjust their roster philosophy. If the era of the dominant Franchise RB is in decline, then the position might become more like WR, where situational matchups and waiver-wire scouting make up a big part of the game.

Originally posted on Xark! on Sept. 26, 2006.

Week 4 NFL Power Rankings

1. Indianapolis Colts, 3-0 (Last week: No. 1): The Colts' victory over the Jaguars was a quality win with a lot at stake. Jacksonville has been building to catch Indianapolis for years, and after a huge victory over a stunned Pittsburgh Steelers team in Week 2, the Jags looked ready to contend. The Colts simply absorbed the Jaguars strongest punches and then calmly, methodically picked their division rivals to bits. It was only one game, but it was a telling game.

2. Seattle Seahawks, 3-0 (Last week, No.6): OK, so at some level, the first half of the Seahawks home game against the Giants was an anomaly. But did you see what the Seahawks can do in a single anomalous half? My God: They dismantled a playoff team in just two quarters. They did it with stifling defense, but here's the headline: They did it with passing. And they're going to have to continue throwing, because Shaun Alexander has a broken bone in his foot. Let me tell you what that feels like: It hurts. A lot. He broke his foot before he broke 100 yards in a game this year, and even when he comes back, it's going to be affecting him.

3. Chicago Bears, 3-0 (Last week, No. 3): Rex Grossman put up gaudy numbers in Week 2, but he progressed farther in Week 3, leading the Bears on two consecutive scoring drives after tossing up a stupid interception near the goal line to give the Vikings the lead. Other defenses will put up better statistics, but this Bears unit is composed of confident defensive playmakers. DT Tommie Harris' 4th-quarter fumble-causing hit on Chester Taylor was simply big-time football, as was Grossman's subsequent game-winning drive. Their win over the Vikings was ugly, but it gives these guys control over their division. Next week's matchup in Chicago against the Seahawks is huge.

4. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-0 (Last week, No. 10): Carson Palmer is on his way to being an MVP candidate and the Bengals are out to a 3-0 start despite one of the toughest schedules in the league.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-1 (Last week, No. 5): I said it before: The Jags are great against physical teams, but they don't match up as well against the intellectual attack of the Indianapolis Colts. This week's loss could be demoralizing, so we'll have to see what happens, but let's give the Jaguars credit, too: They played hard against the best team in football. Most other NFL squads would have melted under the pressure these guys brought.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks, 3-0 (Last week, No.6): OK, so at some level, the first half of the Seahawks home game against the Giants was an anomaly. But did you see what the Seahawks can do in a single anomalous half? My God: They dismantled a playoff team in just two quarters. They did it with stifling defense, but here's the headline: They did it with passing. And they're going to have to continue throwing, because Shaun Alexander has a broken bone in his foot. Let me tell you what that feels like: It hurts. A lot. He broke his foot before he broke 100 yards in a game this year, and even when he comes back, it's going to be affecting him.

3. Chicago Bears, 3-0 (Last week, No. 3): Rex Grossman put up gaudy numbers in Week 2, but he progressed farther in Week 3, leading the Bears on two consecutive scoring drives after tossing up a stupid interception near the goal line to give the Vikings the lead. Other defenses will put up better statistics, but this Bears unit is composed of confident defensive playmakers. DT Tommie Harris' 4th-quarter fumble-causing hit on Chester Taylor was simply big-time football, as was Grossman's subsequent game-winning drive. Their win over the Vikings was ugly, but it gives these guys control over their division. Next week's matchup in Chicago against the Seahawks is huge.

4. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-0 (Last week, No. 10): Carson Palmer is on his way to being an MVP candidate and the Bengals are out to a 3-0 start despite one of the toughest schedules in the league.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-1 (Last week, No. 5): I said it before: The Jags are great against physical teams, but they don't match up as well against the intellectual attack of the Indianapolis Colts. This week's loss could be demoralizing, so we'll have to see what happens, but let's give the Jaguars credit, too: They played hard against the best team in football. Most other NFL squads would have melted under the pressure these guys brought.

Week 3 NFL Power Rankings

1. Indianapolis Colts, 2-0 (Last week: No. 2): The Colts' win over the Houston Texans looked like Notre Dame playing Charleston Southern. I'm still not convinced of their toughness, but their sophistication under Peyton Manning is obvious.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1-1 (Last week: No. 1):That was a classic smash-mouth game the Steelers lost on the road to a fired-up Jacksonville Jaguars team Monday night, but don't write the obit for the Steelers just yet. With its nasty defensive line, Jacksonville matches up well with Pittsburgh's offensive strength (the O-line), and got just enough of an advantage on the champs to take them out of their running game in the second half. Give Roethlisberger another week or two to get back in the groove, and this veteran team will get back to dishing out whuppins.

3. Chicago Bears, 2-0 (Last week, No. 3): Remember in preseason when all those pundits said we'd be seeing Brian Griese under center for the Bears by Week 2? Turns out they were right: Griese replaced Rex Grossman in the fourth quarter with the Bears leading 34-7, after Rex tossed four touchdowns and picked the Lions apart. The Bears have outscored their opponents 60-7 in 2006, and they haven't even gotten their running game going yet.

4. New England Patriots 2-0 (Last week, No. 5): Two weeks, two weak divisional opponents, two ugly wins. Check.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-0 (Last week, No. 16): Even though I like the Jags, Leftwich and their defensive style of play, I've been "a hater" all season. Time for me to give them some love. That was a gutty performance against the Steelers Monday night, strong enough to vault them into the Top 5 this week. What impressed me: An offensive blocking scheme that let Leftwich -- the longest striding QB in the league -- step up and deliver; an enormous and mobile defensive line; physical and aggressive defensive backs, and three young receivers who repeatedly made tough catches. So why not rank them higher? For starters, because I remember how overmatched they looked against New England in the playoffs, but also because I get the sense that the Jaguars caught the Steelers at the perfect time. Finally, I'm still skeptical that this team is built to do the thing it must: beat the Colts.

 

1. Indianapolis Colts, 2-0 (Last week: No. 2): The Colts' win over the Houston Texans looked like Notre Dame playing Charleston Southern. I'm still not convinced of their toughness, but their sophistication under Peyton Manning is obvious.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1-1 (Last week: No. 1):That was a classic smash-mouth game the Steelers lost on the road to a fired-up Jacksonville Jaguars team Monday night, but don't write the obit for the Steelers just yet. With its nasty defensive line, Jacksonville matches up well with Pittsburgh's offensive strength (the O-line), and got just enough of an advantage on the champs to take them out of their running game in the second half. Give Roethlisberger another week or two to get back in the groove, and this veteran team will get back to dishing out whuppins.

3. Chicago Bears, 2-0 (Last week, No. 3): Remember in preseason when all those pundits said we'd be seeing Brian Griese under center for the Bears by Week 2? Turns out they were right: Griese replaced Rex Grossman in the fourth quarter with the Bears leading 34-7, after Rex tossed four touchdowns and picked the Lions apart. The Bears have outscored their opponents 60-7 in 2006, and they haven't even gotten their running game going yet.

4. New England Patriots 2-0 (Last week, No. 5): Two weeks, two weak divisional opponents, two ugly wins. Check.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-0 (Last week, No. 16): Even though I like the Jags, Leftwich and their defensive style of play, I've been "a hater" all season. Time for me to give them some love. That was a gutty performance against the Steelers Monday night, strong enough to vault them into the Top 5 this week. What impressed me: An offensive blocking scheme that let Leftwich -- the longest striding QB in the league -- step up and deliver; an enormous and mobile defensive line; physical and aggressive defensive backs, and three young receivers who repeatedly made tough catches. So why not rank them higher? For starters, because I remember how overmatched they looked against New England in the playoffs, but also because I get the sense that the Jaguars caught the Steelers at the perfect time. Finally, I'm still skeptical that this team is built to do the thing it must: beat the Colts.

Week 2 NFL power rankings

The Carolina Panthers, last week's No. 1 team, tumble out of the Top 5; Green Bay is bad, but no longer the worst team in the NFL. Here are the NFL's 32 teams, in order, and you can take it to the bank, baby...

1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1-0 (Last week: No. 2): How many NFL teams could lose their star quarterback and have their backup signal-caller throw three stellar touchdown passes? The Steelers looked sharp in their marquee opener against Miami, then upgraded their suspect short-yardage game by signing former Packer Najeh Davenport. Davenport has limited skills, but he can do the one thing the Steelers will ask of him.

2. Indianapolis Colts, 1-0 (Last week: No. 4): The running game still looks weak. Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs abused the Colts’ defense. Reggie Wayne hurt his knee. But what are you going to do about Peyton Manning? The other good quarterbacks in this league are doing algebra. Manning is doing advanced calculus. He’s a freak.

3. Chicago Bears, 1-0 (Last week, No. 5): Beating Green Bay was no great feat, but shutting out Brett Favre at Lambeau? That’s gotta count for something. The defense gave up lots of running yardage, but most of those ground numbers were recorded against a second-half scheme that intercepted Favre twice. Chicago hasn’t found its running game yet, but Rex Grossman, Muhsin Muhammand and Dwight Clark looked like they were in midseason form. If the Bears field a balanced offense to go with the best defense in football, watch out.

4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-0 (Last week, No. 6): I didn’t watch much of this one, but I came away with two impressions: Detroit’s defense, which I expected to be good, is still a notch above where I thought it was; the Seahawks found a way to win a dogfight on the road. Winning ugly is a great thing. Also, these guys significantly upgraded their receiver corps by adding Deion Branch on Monday.

5. New England Patriots 1-0 (Last week, No. 3): No disrespect against a Buffalo team that put up a valiant effort, but the Patriots were less than super in their 19-17 win. They’re still habitual winners, but until the wide receivers come up with more than four catches in a game, they’re going to be vulnerable. Doug Gabriel, this means you.

The Carolina Panthers, last week's No. 1 team, tumble out of the Top 5; Green Bay is bad, but no longer the worst team in the NFL. Here are the NFL's 32 teams, in order, and you can take it to the bank, baby...

1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1-0 (Last week: No. 2): How many NFL teams could lose their star quarterback and have their backup signal-caller throw three stellar touchdown passes? The Steelers looked sharp in their marquee opener against Miami, then upgraded their suspect short-yardage game by signing former Packer Najeh Davenport. Davenport has limited skills, but he can do the one thing the Steelers will ask of him.

2. Indianapolis Colts, 1-0 (Last week: No. 4): The running game still looks weak. Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs abused the Colts’ defense. Reggie Wayne hurt his knee. But what are you going to do about Peyton Manning? The other good quarterbacks in this league are doing algebra. Manning is doing advanced calculus. He’s a freak.

3. Chicago Bears, 1-0 (Last week, No. 5): Beating Green Bay was no great feat, but shutting out Brett Favre at Lambeau? That’s gotta count for something. The defense gave up lots of running yardage, but most of those ground numbers were recorded against a second-half scheme that intercepted Favre twice. Chicago hasn’t found its running game yet, but Rex Grossman, Muhsin Muhammand and Dwight Clark looked like they were in midseason form. If the Bears field a balanced offense to go with the best defense in football, watch out.

4. Seattle Seahawks, 1-0 (Last week, No. 6): I didn’t watch much of this one, but I came away with two impressions: Detroit’s defense, which I expected to be good, is still a notch above where I thought it was; the Seahawks found a way to win a dogfight on the road. Winning ugly is a great thing. Also, these guys significantly upgraded their receiver corps by adding Deion Branch on Monday.

5. New England Patriots 1-0 (Last week, No. 3): No disrespect against a Buffalo team that put up a valiant effort, but the Patriots were less than super in their 19-17 win. They’re still habitual winners, but until the wide receivers come up with more than four catches in a game, they’re going to be vulnerable. Doug Gabriel, this means you.

Divisional picks

What do I know about football? I haven't gotten all the games in a single week right since I did it one time in 1986. But what can I say? I like predictions.

 

AFC East: Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Jets
AFC North: Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns
AFC South: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Texans
AFC West: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

NFC East: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Redskins
NFC North: Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers
NFC South: Panthers, Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints
NFC West: Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams, 49ers

AFC wild cards: Chargers, Bengals
NFC wild cards: Buccaneers, Cowboys

AFC playoffs
Wild card: Bengals over Patriots; Pittsburgh over Chargers 
Division: Colts over Pittsburgh; Broncos over Bengals
Championship: Colts over Broncos 

NFC playoffs
Wild card: Eagles over Buccaneers; Panthers over Cowboys
Division: Bears over Panthers; Buccaneers over Eagles
Championship: Bears over Eagles

Super Bowl
Bears over Colts

(Originally posted on Xark! on Sept. 7, 2006)

 

AFC East: Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Jets
AFC North: Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns
AFC South: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Texans
AFC West: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

NFC East: Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Redskins
NFC North: Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers
NFC South: Panthers, Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints
NFC West: Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams, 49ers

AFC wild cards: Chargers, Bengals
NFC wild cards: Buccaneers, Cowboys

AFC playoffs
Wild card: Bengals over Patriots; Pittsburgh over Chargers 
Division: Colts over Pittsburgh; Broncos over Bengals
Championship: Colts over Broncos 

NFC playoffs
Wild card: Eagles over Buccaneers; Panthers over Cowboys
Division: Bears over Panthers; Buccaneers over Eagles
Championship: Bears over Eagles

Super Bowl
Bears over Colts

(Originally posted on Xark! on Sept. 7, 2006)

Xark's NFL preview

Conover's 2006 NFL Pre-Season Power Ratings

1. Carolina Panthers: An excellent team with no obvious holes, the Panthers are good  or better in all three aspects of the game. Their offensive identity may  undergo a bit of a change, as this team was built around a power running game  but lacks that type of talent now. There are playmakers on offense and defense, and Jake Delhomme is a leader who has been to the Super Bowl before, has won on the road in January, and has all the supporting material he needs to make this a memorable year.

2. Pittsburgh  Steelers: The first month of the season might just be the time to catch these guys. With their quarterback recovering from emergency surgery and their running game in transition, they’re vulnerable. I wouldn't want to play these guys in December, though. People wonder who will replace the Bus at the goal line, and I've got the answer: Heath Miller.

3. New England Patriots: The only obvious flaw here remains the oft-belabored wide receiver situation, but with Tom Brady and Ben Watson  available, this shouldn’t be anything more than an annoyance. The defense will be fine, and the offense will get things done without putting up eye-popping stats. This is an under-rated team that some analysts pick to finish second in their division. Don’t believe that until you see it.

4. Indianapolis Colts: A great quarterback and two top-flight receivers, synched to a strong Cover-2 defense should be enough to return to the playoffs, but there seems to have been slippage in this group. With a downgraded running game, the Colts need another MVP year from Manning to make another run at the Super Bowl. Tell-tale sign: Touchdown percentage in the Red Zone. If it drops, and it will, you’ll see the value of having a legitimate running threat.

5. Chicago Bears: Another under-rated team, the Bears brought back all 11 starters  from the best defense in football and then upgraded that unit in the off-season. Analysts tend to doubt Chicago’s offense, but comparing the 2005 attack under rookie Kyle Orton to the 2006  attack under Rex Grossman and/or backup Brian Griese is a fool’s game.  With adequate offensive help and improved special teams play, this is a team that’s ready to make the leap to the elite level. The Bears drew the easiest schedule in the league, and should be the top seed in the NFC playoffs.

   

 

Conover's 2006 NFL Pre-Season Power Ratings

1. Carolina Panthers: An excellent team with no obvious holes, the Panthers are good  or better in all three aspects of the game. Their offensive identity may  undergo a bit of a change, as this team was built around a power running game  but lacks that type of talent now. There are playmakers on offense and defense, and Jake Delhomme is a leader who has been to the Super Bowl before, has won on the road in January, and has all the supporting material he needs to make this a memorable year.

2. Pittsburgh  Steelers: The first month of the season might just be the time to catch these guys. With their quarterback recovering from emergency surgery and their running game in transition, they’re vulnerable. I wouldn't want to play these guys in December, though. People wonder who will replace the Bus at the goal line, and I've got the answer: Heath Miller.

3. New England Patriots: The only obvious flaw here remains the oft-belabored wide receiver situation, but with Tom Brady and Ben Watson  available, this shouldn’t be anything more than an annoyance. The defense will be fine, and the offense will get things done without putting up eye-popping stats. This is an under-rated team that some analysts pick to finish second in their division. Don’t believe that until you see it.

4. Indianapolis Colts: A great quarterback and two top-flight receivers, synched to a strong Cover-2 defense should be enough to return to the playoffs, but there seems to have been slippage in this group. With a downgraded running game, the Colts need another MVP year from Manning to make another run at the Super Bowl. Tell-tale sign: Touchdown percentage in the Red Zone. If it drops, and it will, you’ll see the value of having a legitimate running threat.

5. Chicago Bears: Another under-rated team, the Bears brought back all 11 starters  from the best defense in football and then upgraded that unit in the off-season. Analysts tend to doubt Chicago’s offense, but comparing the 2005 attack under rookie Kyle Orton to the 2006  attack under Rex Grossman and/or backup Brian Griese is a fool’s game.  With adequate offensive help and improved special teams play, this is a team that’s ready to make the leap to the elite level. The Bears drew the easiest schedule in the league, and should be the top seed in the NFC playoffs.