Fantasy Mashup

RB Willis McGahee

With an ADP near the bottom of the first round and a late-June Standard Deviation above 5.0,  Willis McGahee represents one of the first big variables in most 2007 drafts. He's clearly a strong No. 2 RB prospect with No. 1 RB potential, but he enters the year as the highest rated enigma among running backs.

The basics: McGahee enters his fifth NFL season (he spent his rookie season rehabbing a horrific knee injury) as a talented but disappointing fantasy player in what most analysts consider to be a vastly improved team situation. McGahee has size (6 feet, 230 pounds) to go with good (but not great) speed. He has averaged just over 1,100 yard for the past three years, but has a ypc average below 4.0. McGahee has scored more than six touchdowns in a season only once (13 in 2004).

Using ADP "standard deviation" to target players

This isn't a math-geek site (on average, only 3.59 percent of our waking hours -- or roughly 37 minutes per day, with a margin of error of 5 percent -- are devoted to doing math-related tasks), so we don't typically get all freaky with the statistical stuff.

That said, statistics are the foundation of most fantasy analysis, since the outcomes of our games are based solely on the numbers produced in NFL games, not the non-quantifiable qualities of actual NFL players. We still believe foremost in the human factor, but we're always on the hunt for mathematical insights that give us an edge.

Like this one...

Jinx? What jinx?

Do not anger the Football Gods

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