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While we don't question the underlying logic of the Stud Running Back Theory, we're on the record as heretics when it comes to the widespread belief that uninspiring RBs should trump quality players at other positions on draft day. But what comes next? What strategy makes sense for 2007?
Well, here goes: Unless you can get Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer or Tom Brady, don't draft a quarterback in the first seven rounds. And no, we're not smoking crack.
Notes from the first practice session of the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2007 training camp:
QUARTERBACKS
The obvious No. 1 issue in Jacksonville is Byron Leftwich, who suffered through injury, inconsistency and management skullduggery in 2006. And perhaps the most telling thing I noticed all day was Leftwich's entrance into the practice area. He walked up the chute from Alltel Stadium beside enormous DT John Henderson, and as they casually sauntered by, the fans shouted "BIG JOHN! BIG JOHN! OVER HERE, BIG JOHN!"
I mentioned this to a Jags fan in the bleachers later. "There are a lot of mixed emotions," he said about the apathy toward Leftwich. No kidding. Backup QB David Garard received a much more enthusiastic fan welcome, both coming and going, and was himself much more gregarious than Leftwich, who struck me as reserved and a little wary.
A reminder about the special "team-game" qualities that make football particularly interesting: The unexpected retirement of Tarik Glenn, the outstanding left tackle for the Indianapolis Colts, could have an immediate and tangible affect on the fantasy stock of every Colt player.
You know the conventional wisdom about offensive linemen (left tackle is the most significant position, guards power the running game, but center is the key to a great unit) so we won't go through the logic in detail. Suffice it to say that Glenn has been the starting left tackle in every single NFL game Peyton Manning has ever played. You don't take away a passer's blindside protector without changing his rhythm. Yada yada yada.
Does that bump Manning from the top of the fantasy QB ratings? No, but it increases his injury risk and decreases expectations for the Colts' overall offensive production. RB Joseph Addai probably takes the biggest hit: fantasy owners like him as much for his role in the traditionally productive Colts offense as they do for his above-average talent, and he's routinely selected in the first half of this summer's first rounds.
There's little doubt that offensive line play is the least-understood component of fantasy football, but if you're looking for evidence of its value, look no farther than Kansas City, where a once-great offensive line is in decline. Here are the key rushing stats for the Chiefs over the past four seasons:
2003: 1,929, 4.3 ypc, 32 TDs;
2004: 2,289, 4.6 ypc, 31 TDs;
2005: 2,382, 4.6 ypc, 26 TDs;
2006: 2,143, 4.2 ypc, 17 TDs.
End of the world? No. But as a fantasy player looking at Larry Johnson's prospects for 2007, I know that Johnson was a better producer in 2005 with Will Shields at guard than he was in 2006 without him. I also know that there's not a Shields-quality guard on the Chiefs' roster for 2007, and I adjust my expectations accordingly.
What fact best predicted a decline in production for Shaun Alexander in 2006? The departure of guard Steve Hutchinson for Minnesota. Offensive line assessments are one reason to be optimistic about Thomas Jones (young Jet linemen improving) and Travis Henry (Denver's blocking scheme is proven). They're also why I'm skeptical about Steven Jackson (Orlando Pace is fading and only RT Alex Barron shows potential) and Rudi Johnson (just lost G Eric Steinbach).
Time to add Addai to that second list as well.
Our culture is loaded with preset ideas about gender and sports. This site, obviously, looks at fantasy football from a male and a female perspective. No doubt some prejudices will rear their ugly heads: I'm certainly aware that some people think gender has a role in determining who is qualified to play/talk about/enjoy sports. More specifically, some believe one sex is superior when it comes to fantasy sports.
I want to be upfront right now: I think men are just as good, even if their ideas on winning, losing and game enjoyment are sometimes skewed. So, if you are looking for a site that bashes men's abilities, look elsewhere. Our motivations and modus operandi might be different, but we can still all get along. At least Tuesday through Saturday. During the regular season. Except not on Thursdays some weeks. And Saturdays in December.
On to fantasy football. You've probably already figured out one of the main differences between my esteemed Mashup colleague and me: He gets into it way before I do. I have not been rolling around in the great, sticky vat of football information yet. Training camps are just beginning, players remain unsigned, I have not yet begun to sort through all the roster changes with due diligence. I will and soon. If you want to approach your draft with any kind of competence, you will too.
Here's a look at some early info gathering ideas ..
Maurice Jones-Drew should be the poster-child for why we love fantasy football. There's always some undrafted (in fantasy drafts, anyway) player who explodes on the scene, upending all sorts of calculations. Fifteen touchdowns and about 1,400 combined yards later, it's up to us to classify his 2006 season and project him into his second year, and his standard deviation in mock drafts suggests that's not an easy task.
The basics: Jones-Drew is a short (under 5-7), thick running back with enormously powerful thighs and 4.4 pop. After starring at UCLA, he was drafted in the second round by the Jacksonville Jaguars as the heir apparent to Fred Taylor in 2006. Though he excelled as a kickoff returner and the oft-injured Taylor stayed healthy, Jones-Drew was too good to keep on the bench. He finished the year with 116 rushing attempts and put up his excellent stats despite having only six games in which he received more than 15 combined rushing/receiving touches.
While I've tended to focus on writing analysis of players with jittery standard deviation numbers in mock drafts, I want to step off that train for a moment and talk about Travis Henry, because he's another player with the potential to make or break your 2007 season.
The basics: Henry was a 2nd round pick by Buffalo in 2001 who broke out in his second campaign to the tune of 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. His third season was marred by injury and the rapid decline of Drew Bledsoe, and in Year 4 Henry was basically benched in favor of Willis McGahee. For two seasons this tough-running little warrior was an NFL outcast, a sign of just how quickly fortunes can change for a running back. But in 2006, Henry revived his career with a 1,200-yard season in Tennessee and got an invitation to play for Mike Shanahan in Denver. He's falling into the early second round in this year's drafts.
Cedric Benson was the second of three running backs draft in the top five picks of the 2005 draft (Ronnie Brown, No. 2; Benson, No. 4; and Carnell Williams, No. 5). All three have flashed potential while posting disappointing performances, and Benson is the least productive of the trio. This year he's finally the clear No. 1 in Chicago, but his questionable pro resume makes him one of the key decisions for fantasy owners in this year's fantasy offseason.
The basics: Benson is a powerful, explosive runner with a better-than-adequate running skills and speed. His between-the-tackles style attracted Bears' scouts because it matched the new offense they were installing for 2005, but Benson missed training camp in a contract holdout, worked his way into the rotation late, brooded, got hurt, spouted off to the press and flirted with the ghost of Curtis Enis. He entered the 2006 season as 1A in the Bears RBBC, but injured his shoulder in training camp and fell back to the second option behind Thomas Jones. In two years he has rushed for 919 yards, though he finished the 2006 season on something of a roll. It ended with his early exit from the Super Bowl due to injury.
I'm from that generation of pre-Internet fantasy players who had to puzzle out the Stud Running Back Theory on our own. People tried all sorts of wild ideas at the top of drafts in the early 1990s, but ever since the rise of the Web and the explosion of professional fantasy pubs and sites, EVERYBODY knows that the key to success is acquiring two stud running backs ASAP.
I see two immediate problems with this development:
First, if everyone has the same strategy, that isn't a strategy anymore -- it's background music. It's the status quo against which you have to develop a new winning strategy.
And second: The Stud RB drafting theory would make a lot more sense if fantasy owners were better at telling the studs from the duds. Consider this "expert" mock draft from a year ago ("these are all fantasy football experts who have played in several leagues per year for at least a decade, so study the picks closely because there is a lot of knowledge here"). Check out how many of the RBs taken in the first and second rounds were either flat-out busts or season-killing under-performers...
Click the image to see larger. And here's a download-and-print version of the card.
It may actually be easier to spot which players are headed for a bad season than the guys who are about to break out. Here's my list of guys to treat skeptically in 2007...
Fantasy Karma!
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