« August 2007 | Main | October 2007 »

September 2007

September 30, 2007

Wk4 sleeper starters

Been so busy with the other jobs that I haven't had much time to devote to fantasy football this week, but if you're in a bind (and with the first bye week and all the injuries out there right now, who isn't?) here are your last-minute sleeper starters for Week 4 (and remember: I only tell you about players who are available in more than 50 percent of CBS Sportsline leagues):

QB: (42 points, 14 ppg) Steve McNair. His injuries have dropped him below the 50 percent ownership threshold (42 percent), and this week he's probable against a Cleveland defense that's given up 11 touchdown passes in three weeks. If your guy is out, grab him. OUTCOME: 307 yards passing, one Pa TD, one INT, two yards rushing, 16 fantasy points. We'll call that a HIT, as it was better than five of the starters in my random CBS Sportsline league.

RB (13 points, 4.33 ppg): Leon Washington.
There isn't a good RB option available on the waiver wire this week, so you'd have to be pretty desperate (say, you have Steven Jackson and Ahman Green as your starters) to go this route. Here's the argument: For a non-starter, Washington (44 percent ownership) has value because he a factor in three phases of the game: running, passing and returning; he's a gamebreaker who at least has an opportunity to pick up long yards if he slips the first tackler; he's a threat to score every time he's on the field. But I feel really bad for you if you're down to this. OUTCOME: 24 rushing yards, 38 passing yards, one touchdown, 11 fantasy points. That's better than 16 of the 24 RB starters in my benchmark league, so mark that a HIT.

WR (12 points, 4 ppg): Brandon Stokely. He's always been a good little receiver, but injuries have dogged him. This week he's back healthy against his old team and should get more playing time with No. 1 WR Javon Walker hobbled by knee issues. OUTCOME: Two receptions, 20 yards, 1 fantasy point. MISS.

TE (8 points, 2.67 ppg): Greg Olsen.
He's in a tight-end committee, which is hard to get excited about, but in his first NFL action last week the Bears' rookie looked really good. I think the Bears will wind up having to throw more than they'd like to this week, and Olsen (44 percent) is a good threat to score even though he's not the starter. Besides, the obvious choices are owned right now, and the Lions are a good matchup for receivers. OUTCOME: I only saw him line up on a couple of series and Griese never looked his way once. Desmond Clark, meanwhile, hauled in seven for 44 and a score. MISS.

PK (21 points, 7 ppg): Kris Brown. The Houston kicker isn't exactly tearing up the pea patch, but Brown's (14 percent ownership) 24 points in three games is significantly better than "studs" like Nate Kaeding or Robbie Gould. He's indoors at Atlanta, where the Falcons aren't giving up huge points. Still and all, this could be one of those kicker duels, so I like his chances here. OUTCOME: 10 points. HIT.

DST (45 points, 15 ppg): 49ers.
You can pick up the San Francisco defense in 52 percent of leagues, and if you're stuck with a team like Chicago this week, it's time to consider making a switch. I know the Seahawks scored big last week, but I suspect the first team to 17 points wins this matchup by the Bay, and the 49ers are a greatly improved unit. OUTCOME: Six fantasy points. Losing Alex Smith in the first quarter killed this pick. MISS.

Good luck this week!

Editor's note: I'll add the percentages and history later.

September 28, 2007

Favorites & underdogs

Some stats that might interest y'all:

  • Based on the lines that I've cited here, favorites have a .645 winning percentage in straight-up games this year.
  • Favorites are just .333 when it comes to beating the spread.
  • Underdogs? They've beaten the spread .562 percent of the time.
  • Ten percent of the first 48 games (5) hit the spread exactly, with the house keeping all the money.

I was happy with my 32-16 record, but that's only a game ahead of where I'd be if I mindlessly bet every favorite this year.

I think I only picked a couple of upsets and seven dogs this week. Maybe I'm being too conservative...

September 26, 2007

Wk4 game picks

***THURSDAY UPDATE: Point-spread picks added.***

WEEK 3 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 32-16 (.667)
ATS: 9-7 (.562); SEASON: 27-21 (.562)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-1 (.500); SEASON: 4-5 (.444)

In my book, 10-6 is a good week and anything above 11-5 is a gift from Gawd. So to be sitting at at .667 after three weeks is something I can feel thankful about.

My expectations are a little different when it comes to point spreads. A guy who used to pick games for a living told Janet that you make money when you can get the spread right 52 percent of the time, and I'm barely above that after three weeks. Can I keep it going? Can I ever have a winning week on my "Best Bets?"

Stay tuned...

OUTCOME: 6-8 on winners, 11-3 against the spread, 4-0 Best Bets.

Continue reading "Wk4 game picks" »

September 24, 2007

Wk4: Rankings shakedown

The Patriots are so strong it's freaky, and the Colts just keep winning. But the movement is at the next few spots, where the Steelers and the Cowboys are in a virtual dead heat, the Packers are making big noise, and the Chicago Bears dropped right out of the Top 20.

Continue reading "Wk4: Rankings shakedown" »

September 22, 2007

Wk3: Big questions, big games

Think it's too early to get urgent about crucial personnel decisions on your fantasy team? Don't kid yourself: only NFL coaches should be committed to the players on their rosters in September. Fantasy success is based on making intelligent (or lucky) assessments of NFL situations and talent before those assessments become common knowledge.

Sometimes that assessment wisely tells us to do nothing; other times it tells us to trade a player while he still has value. In any case, what you do should be a decision, not just an accident.

The important (though unofficial) deadlines for making these assessments are Week 3 of the preseason (draft prep), the fourth week of the regular season (roster adjustment) and Thanksgiving, when a lot of leagues set their trade deadlines and fantasy teams that are still in the hunt retool for their stretch drives. This means you're coming up on some make-or-break decisions, and we've got the questions after the jump...

Continue reading "Wk3: Big questions, big games" »

September 21, 2007

Sleeper Starters No. 3

For those of you just joining us, here are the rules: I pick one player per week at each position so that there's something for anyone in search of an emergency starter   

The kicker? I limit my pool of available players to players that are owned in less than 50 percent of CBS Sportsline leagues. That makes it tricky, but that's what you're looking at with your team. Which is why we're here.

Continue reading "Sleeper Starters No. 3" »

September 19, 2007

Wk3 office pool picks

***FRIDAY SEPT.21 UPDATE: ALL POINT-SPREAD PICKS NOW FILED.***

WEEK 2 REPORT:
WINNERS: 10-6 (.625); SEASON: 20-12 (.625)
ATS: 10-6 (.625); SEASON: 18-14 (.562)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-2 (.333); SEASON: 3-4 (.428)

Now that we're past the first week, I'm happy when I can finish above .600 in any category. I did that -- barely -- in two of my three categories last week, but for some reason I just haven't found the knack for identifying good point-spread opportunities. I was SURE the Bengals would beat the woeful Browns by a touchdown, and how were the Buccaneers going to stay within a field goal in their game against the Saints?

If you're looking for a betting trend over two weeks, it's my ATS picks in the Not Betting the Farm category. They've gone 6-1 (.857).

So the winner picks are up, with the Against The Spread update to follow later in the week...

(OUTCOME: 12-4 winners, 9-7 ATS)

Continue reading "Wk3 office pool picks" »

September 17, 2007

Wk3 power rankings

The Patriots rewrote these rankings this week with a dominant performance. It's early yet, but it wouldn't me surprise if they maintained this ranking for the rest of the season.

Continue reading "Wk3 power rankings" »

September 16, 2007

The best show on TV

Looking for an advantage? You ought to be watching Sterling Sharpe's Playbook on NFL Network. He and Brian Baldinger simply kick ass when it comes to analyzing tendencies and trends. Zero happy-talk bullshit, 100 percent gridiron-geekiness. Thursday and Friday at 8, Sunday at 11 a.m.

The next best thing (but only if you've got Tivo): Sunday Ticket's premium package with Short Cuts. Every game boiled down to 30 minutes. The problem is, it's poorly timed and hard to watch. To get the value out of this series, you really need a stop-rewind control and the ability to spread out your video work over the full week.

September 14, 2007

First Quiz

72499084 The shrine to the football gods paid off for Dan and the Charleston Snobs, but the Claymores lost by 3 measly $^#&$*%&) points thanks to Arizona, who couldn't even get close enough for Neil Rackers to try a 50+ goal. Oh and Reggie Bush, whose commercial face time greatly exceeded his actual yardage. Awesome. I"m 0-1, dashing my hopes of an unprecedented undefeated season. Damn IT...

Well, enough of THAT. Score yourself on our Fantasy Football Owner Quiz ... Are you game?

Continue reading "First Quiz" »

FFB GEAR

Tip Jar

Fantasy Karma!

Tip Jar