Fantasy Mashup

Wk 8 picks

WEEK 6 REPORT:
WINNERS: 11-3 (.786); SEASON: 68-35 (.660)
ATS: 5-9 (.357); SEASON: 54-49 (.524)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-0 (NA); SEASON: 10-11 (.476)

The Football Gods giveth, and the Football Gods taketh away -- like a bunch of spoiled, overgrown babies.

So, yes: I had my best week of picking winners, but I also took a drubbing on my ATS picks.

As for my "Best Bets," well, they just didn't happen, thanks to my participation in the ConvergeSouth tech/media/user conference in Greensboro, NC. I was kinda busy.

But let's put this in perspective: I had a good week because NFL favorites finally had a good week. Favorites went 10-4. with only the Steelers (road), Ravens (road), Raiders (home) and Eagles (home) choking on their opportunities.

And I expected to do well: I ranked seven games as Confident, the highest number I've ranked that securely all season. Six of those games came through for me. Meanwhile, my guesses finally nudged over the .500 mark, thanks to a 4-0 turn in the Just Guessing category.

This week I'm not so confident: Only four games get my Confident label, while seven fall under that Just Guessing header.

Wk 7 game picks

WEEK 6 REPORT:
WINNERS: 10-3 (.769); SEASON: 57-32 (.640)
ATS: 5-8 (.385); SEASON: 49-40 (.579)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-2 (.000); SEASON: 9-10 (.474)

Last week was something of a return to normalcy, as the wild upsets took a hiatus. I'm actually expecting more of the same this week for some reason, which is probably why I've got more confident picks on this week's list. Oddly enough, my Just Guessing picks finally came over to my side (6-1) last week.

My ATS picks hinged on a couple of spread-ties, so it could have gone the other way. As for my best-bets, I'm back below .500 again, dammit. Why is this so difficult for me to get right?

Pats will go undefeated

Time to go out on a limb and make an outrageous prediction: The Patriots are a cold-blooded bunch of assassins, and I don't think they're going to lose in 2007.

That is to say: Barring outrageous misfortune and injury, they'll go undefeated and win the Super Bowl.

They've got a Hall of Fame quarterback, the best receivers, a veteran defensive unit, a stellar offensive line, good special teams and a methodical, supremely confident style. They beat the NFC's best team today by 21 points, their narrowest margin of victory in 2007 is 17 points and the really scary thing is, the numbers lie: None of those games were actually that close.

Our best chances of stopping them -- and by "our" I mean "the rest of the world" -- are Nov. 4 at Indianapolis and the Steelers' Dec. 9 visit to Foxboro. If that doesn't get it done, we're down to the New York Giants in Week 17, playing against a New England team that will have sewn up its playoff seeding. And that's it. Nobody else has a shot.

Yes, it's ridiculously early to say this, but I don't believe this team is going to lose. It's been 35 years since a pro football team went undefeated, but that's not to say it's never going to happen again.

In fact, it's going to happen in 2007. This is the greatest team since the 1985 Bears,  and they're en route to laying claim to the title: Greatest of  All Time.

Wk 6 sleepers

In trouble and looking for a last-minute starter on this nastiest of bye weeks? We've got you covered. Each of these players is owned in less than 50 percent of CBS Sports online leagues, and each has a decent shot at being productive this week:

QB: Damon Huard. It looks like he's healthy, and he's available in 65 percent of leagues. Keep your expectations in check, since I expect the Chiefs to feed LJ the ball against that banged-up Bengals LB corps, but consider him a decent play if you're in a jam.

RB: Aaron Stecker. How slim are these pickings? Jason Wright, Cleveland's backup RB, is STARTING in 56 percet of leagues this week. I'm offering up Stecker because he's... well, because he's available in 81 percent of leagues, and I think Reggie Bush needs to have a guy in rotation. Plus he had a TD called back last week, and I think he's a decent player.

WR: Bryant Johnson. This guy has quietly become a solid No.3 for the Cardinals, and he flies under the radar because the starters are such big names. This week he gets the start (for Boldin), and I think he's got a chance to put up numbers. He's owned in 26 percent of leagues.

TE: Eric Johnson. I'm going back to the well with Johnson (35 percent ownership) just because he's getting so many looks. They haven't turned into TDs yet, but Brees keeps looking for him, and frankly, there's not much else available.

PK: Rob Bironas. This big-legged guy (19 percent ownership) looks like he could get a few FG chances against Tampa.

DST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're available in about 70 percent of leagues. I don't see them dominating the Titans, but I won't be surprised if the game is relatively low-scoring and includes a few Tennessee turnovers.

Wk 6 Game picks

WEEK 5 REPORT:
WINNERS: 9-5 (.562); SEASON: 47-29 (.618)
ATS: 6-8 (.428); SEASON: 44-32 (.579)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-3 (.250); SEASON: 9-8 (.529)

I fell a game short of my 10-win goal, and my ATS picks came back to Earth after a weirdly successful Week 4. This week has fewer high-confidence picks than any week this season, and there's plenty of guessing. But at least I tell you that, right?

Wk 5: I want my mommy

This is fantasy football:

So I'm playing the guy who is a game ahead in our division in the Manly Football League, a holdover from the pre-Web era that STILL counts only TDs, FGs, safties and XPs (with 4 points for a TD pass and 1 point for a 2-point conversion pass). I'm up 36-32 going into a Monday night duel between Tony Romo and Cowboys kicker Nick Folk.

Here's how I lost:

After taking a 40-33 lead on Romo's first TD pass (and Folk's XP), Folk's field goals pushed my opponent to a 42-40 lead. But I came storming back behind Romo's late TD drive to take a 44-42 lead with less than 30 seconds remaining. Romo's pass for the two-point conversion would have made the score 45-42 and closed out the week, but Terrell Owens dropped it.

The Cowboys recovered the ensuing onside kick and then began toying with me. Romo's completion on first down put Folk in field goal range, but it was reviewed and reversed. Romo's second completion put the Cowboys in range for a 63-yarder. With 7 seconds remaining, Romo's pass on third down moved them in close enough for a 53-yard kick.

Folk hit it, only to have it waved off by a Dick Jauron time out. This trick has worked in two previous games this season, as kickers choked when asked to hit long field goals twice in a row. But Folk didn't. He lined up and punched it right through. I know this because Mike Tirico told me. I had my shirt pulled over my face for both attempts.

I lost 45-44.

And the worst part?

I started the wrong kicker. Neil Rackers scored 10 points, but Nate Kaeding scored 11 on my bench. Had I gone the other way in setting my lineup, I'd have won on tiebreaker points and I'd be in control of the division this morning.

Instead, I am a bitter, bitter man.

I love this game.

Wk 6 Power rankings

Another topsy-turvy week in the NFL... once you get down past the top two teams. I reward the Steelers for their dominant win, and punish the Cowboys despite their 4th-quarter heroics on Monday night. And the Chargers and Bears are back from the dead...

Wk 5 sleeper starters

Oct. 8th REVIEW: This week's stealth starters (players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues) went 2-2-2, (Hit, Miss, Draw) and were generally solid plays. Highlights? Pulling Leon Washington off the scrap heap for 7 emergency RB points and leading my benchmark league in defensive scoring with 24 points from the Titans...

Here are the five-week averages:

QB picks:  13.4 ppg

RB  picks:  6.2 ppg

WR picks: 3.6 ppg

TE picks: 2.2 ppg

PK picks: 7.4 ppg

DST picks: 15 ppg

Wk 5 game picks

--THURSDAY UPDATE: POINT-SPREAD PICKS FILED--

WEEK 4 REPORT:
WINNERS: 6-8 (.428); SEASON: 38-24 (.613)
ATS: 11-3 (.786); SEASON: 38-24 (.613)
ATS BEST BETS: 4-0 (1.000); SEASON: 8-5 (.615)

I never thought I'd feel good about going 6-8 for a weekend, but considering the fact that Vegas' favorites went a combined 5-9 (that's a .357 winning percentage) and most everybody took a bath, I'm calling 6-8 a respectable week.

Also heartening: My "Confident" and "Not Betting the Farm" categories went a combined 6-3, maintaining their statistical strength (for the first month of the season, my straight-up picks in these categories have a .722 winning percentage and an Against-the-Spread winning percentage of .694) in what was otherwise a slaughterhouse week. So I'm doing a pretty good job of handicapping the games themselves, if not the winners of those games. In other words, when I tell you I'm just guessing, there's a reason, and when I tell you I'm not just guessing, it's because I see something.

Also brightening the picture for me was my Against-the-Spread list, which went a combined 11-3. Again, my benchmark for success is a .520 winning percentage, which is supposedly what you have to win to make money betting on football games. After a month I'm six games above that threshold.

And my Best Bets? After three weeks of failing to break .500, I finally went undefeated, this time with four selected games. That helps the seasonal average considerably, finally putting it up with my overall ATS percentage. Now we'll see if I can improve on that.

My seasonal straight-up average isn't where I want it to be (.650 or above), but a 10-win weekend would put me back in striking distance. Maybe I'll get lucky.

Wk5 power rankings

It was a week of upsets, which has a way of scrambling a power ranking. A fun week, really.