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October 07, 2007

Wk 5 sleeper starters

Oct. 8th REVIEW: This week's stealth starters (players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues) went 2-2-2, (Hit, Miss, Draw) and were generally solid plays. Highlights? Pulling Leon Washington off the scrap heap for 7 emergency RB points and leading my benchmark league in defensive scoring with 24 points from the Titans...

Here are the five-week averages:

QB picks:  13.4 ppg

RB  picks:  6.2 ppg

WR picks: 3.6 ppg

TE picks: 2.2 ppg

PK picks: 7.4 ppg

DST picks: 15 ppg

QB: (58 points, 14.5 ppg) Steve McNair. Jason Campbell might be a better play this week, but he's on a roster in 51 percent of leagues and so not available for this spot. Hence, I'm going back to McNair, who threw for more than 300 yards in Week 4 and travels to San Fran in Week 5. Normally I'd consider that a tough matchup, but this week I'm not so sure. The 49er defense is just average at this point, having faded over the past two weeks, and the injury to Alex Smith will put pressure on them in all phases of the game. I don't know that you can count on a second consecutive 16-point week from this elder statesman, but double digits wouldn't surprise me. He's due to get a two-touchdown game. OUTCOME: Well, let's put it this way: If McNair was due for a two-TD outing, he's STILL due for a two-TD outing. He was good for just nine points in Week 5, which isn't very good, but on the flip side, it would have made him the 5th best QB starter in my benchmark league. Let's call this a DRAW.

RB (24 points, 6 ppg): Leon Washington.
I went with Leon last week and it boosted the bottom-line here  nicely. After my first two RB picks combined for just three points, my last two have combined for 21. Washington's ownership number climbed to 47 percent this week, and for good reason: With all those injuries out there, Washington's matchup against the resurgent Giants defense actually looks very nice. Reason: With the Giants sure to pressure Chad Pennington, and with the Jets likely playing from behind, screen passes and draws to Washington will be a great way of slowing down the Giants' pass rush.  Thomas Jones is struggling, Leon chipped in 62 combined yards and a touchdown in Week 4, and it's not asking too much to hope for similar yardage numbers this week. OUTCOME: This is one of those rare plays when your guy is a complete bust but still manages to put up points for you. Washington got those 10 touches I was hoping for (though only one reception, which surprised me), yet they went for just 12 yards. His saving grace? A 98-yard kick return for TD. Seven points from a waiver wire RB is a gift from Gawd, so let's call this a HIT.

WR (13 points, 3.25 ppg): Ike Hilliard. He's owned in just 4 percent of leagues, so why am I suggesting you owners in need of a WR pick him up and start him? Several reasons. First, this is a veteran Tampa receiver going against a Tampa 2 defense. He understands where the seams and holes in this defense are located, and he will keep working to get open and help his quarterback, who just stays alive and completes passes. Ike was good for 114 yards last week, and while I don't see him matching those yardage totals, I suspect he'll continue to be active in the Bucs passing game. He's averaging more than 60 yards per game, and I think he'll finish somewhere near that figure in Week 5. OUTCOME: I wasn't off by much. Hilliard logged 58 yards receiving, good for 5 points. That puts him in pretty good competitive standing, but I'll still call it a DRAW.

TE (8 points, 2 ppg): Eric Johnson. Good news for Saints tight ends: Panthers MLB Dan Morgan is out this week. OUTCOME: Five catches isn't bad. Thirty yards isn't good. Some weeks three points from a TE is acceptable, but tight ends went nuts in Week 5, with multiple guys scoring in double figures and Witten still to go. So I'm marking this a MISS.

PK (31 points, 7.75 ppg): Shaun Suisham. In case you're wondering, he plays for Washington, which plays Detroit. He's a starter in only 7 percent of leagues and owned in just 12, got cut last year by Dallas, and has scored just 23 points over three games. On the other hand, he's kicking for the favorite in a game with an over-under of 46 points. That's tied for the second-highest over-under of the week, and the kickers in those other games are taken. OUTCOME: So much for that approach. Suisham went 1 for 2 and collected three XPs. Six points from a kicker is a MISS.

DST (51 points, 12.75 ppg): Titans.
The New York Giants climbed over 50 percent ownership after last week's jaw-dropping performance, worth 34 fantasty points. If they're available in your league, consider them this week against the Jets, but what about here, where we only recommend players who are available in more than half of leagues? I'm going with the Tennessee Titans (49 percent), who are hosting the Atlanta Falcons. OUTCOME: The Titans roughed up the poor Falcons to the tune of 24 fantasy points, proving once again that playing the waiver wire for team defenses isn't a bad strategy. That scoring would have made the Titans the No. 1 producer in my benchmark league this week. A big HIT.

Comments

I'm playing McNair today. Let's see how it goes....

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