WEEK 5 REPORT:
WINNERS: 9-5 (.562); SEASON: 47-29 (.618)
ATS: 6-8 (.428); SEASON: 44-32 (.579)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-3 (.250); SEASON: 9-8 (.529)
I fell a game short of my 10-win goal, and my ATS picks came back to Earth after a weirdly successful Week 4. This week has fewer high-confidence picks than any week this season, and there's plenty of guessing. But at least I tell you that, right?
Confident (Week 5: 5-0 winners, 1.000; 3-2 ATS, .600. Season: 21-7 winners, .750; 18-10 ATS, .643)
St. Louis at (-10) Baltimore (early): Baltimore doesn't have much of an offense and the Rams showed a pulse last week with Gus Ferrotte under center, but that's not enough to make this competitive. Ravens win. ATS: To win by 10 you've got to score at least 9 points, and that's no sure bet with the Ravens. Rams.
Oakland at (-10) San Diego (late): This year's Oakland is an improved model, and San Diego has been craptastic three weeks out of five. But I'm going with the Chargers because of talent and the evidence that they're finally getting their act together. ATS: But I don't think they're 10 points better than the Raiders.
N.Y. Giants at (+3.5) Atlanta (Monday): I'm a little surprised to be writing this, after the way I've slagged the Giants since last season, but they're playing good ball at the moment and Atlanta is suffering. They lost two more offensive linemen over the past week. ATS: Always go with the home dog, right? Wrong. Giants.
New England at (+7) Dallas (late): The best team from the AFC travels to face the best team from the NFC... and this is a confident pick? Absolutely. The Patriots are as dominant a team as I've seen in years. ATS: Dominant doesn't always mean blowouts. I think the Cowboys push them.
Not Betting The Farm (Week 5: 3-1 winners, .750; 2-2 ATS, .500. Season: 13-4 winners, .765; 12-5 ATS, .706)
Minnesota at (-6.5) Chicago (early): It's hard to put too much faith in the Bears right now, but they're getting healthier and they showed signs of settling down last week against the Packers. Plus I think the Vikings are going to become less competitive now that Tarvaris Jackson is healthy and Kelly Holcomb is going back to the bench. Listen, Holcomb wasn't so bad the past couple of weeks, and Jackson -- though a great athlete -- has a long way to go before anyone mistakes him for a fully functional QB. Anyway, I think the Bears win here, but there aren't strong trends. ATS: Vikings keep it on the ground, keep it close.
Carolina at (-4.5) Arizona (late): Carolina has other problems, but quarterback overshadows everything. Still, neither of these teams is a lock down favorite to me. I've got the Cardinals.ATS: Cardinals.
Just Guessing (Week 5: 1-4 winners, .200; 1-4ATS, .200. Season: 13-18 winners, .419; 13-18 ATS, .419)
Cincinnati at (+3) Kansas City (early): Maybe this will be a mild surprise, but I'm picking the Chiefs. Damon Huard is going to play, and the Bengals are down to junior varsity linebackers. Granted, the Bengals offense is so strong they can almost go without a defense, but... ATS: Chiefs.
Houston at (-7) Jacksonville (early): Houston gives Jacksonville fits, so why not? Texans. ATS: Houston.
Miami at (-4.5) Cleveland (early): Miami's got to win sometime, right? But maybe not this weekend. I'm digging on the Browns. ATS: Dolphins.
Philadelphia at (+3.5) N.Y. Jets (early): The Jets are awful, the Eagles inconsistent. I think the Eagles win. ATS: But not by that much. Jets.
Tennessee at (-3) Tampa Bay (early): Tampa is an underrated team, Tennessee is a group that just finds ways to to win. Put 'em both in a jar, shake 'em up and it comes out ... Tampa. ATS: I was surprised to see that Tampa was the favorite. So gimme Tennessee.
Washington at (-3) Green Bay (early): Green Bay fell from the undefeated ranks. Washington got on something of a roll. I think the Packers have more staying power. ATS: Jason Campbell is going to have to throw against the Packers corners, and they're a savvy pair that could eat him alive. Packers.
New Orleans at (-7) Seattle (Sunday night): The obvious time for the Saints to win was last week, and the week before. But ... damned if the Seahawks didn't suck last week. Saints win their first. ATS: How do you watch last week's game and make the Seahawks a TD favorite over anybody? Saints.
BEST BETS: Houston and Tennessee.
Open date: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco.
Dan,
As usual, I'm in agreement with most of these. You surely give a great analysis of each match-up.
We have four differences this week. I'm taking the Bengals, Jags, Titans and Seahawks.
One note on the Seahawks: they looked bad last week because the Steelers are very good and the Seahawks are leaders in the weakest division in the NFL.
Posted by: Rockwell | October 12, 2007 at 11:25 PM