WEEK 12 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 115-61 (.653)
ATS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 98-78 (.557)
ATS BEST BETS: 3-0; SEASON: 20-16 (.555)
Week 12 turned out pretty well around here, but that's because favorites went 12-4 this week (I missed on three of the four upset games). Still and all, successful favorites don't help against the spread, and 12-4 in that category made me very happy indeed.
Of course, history reminds me that what goes up naturally comes down, and I'm due a flop week at any time now. But the good news is I'm finally above the .650 mark -- my season goal for straight-up winners -- and my ATS percentage is about seven games above the 52 percent profitability mark. Not stellar numbers. But OK. Even my Best Bets are finally nearing respectability.
Maybe I should quit while I'm ahead. I probably would if I was actually betting on this stuff. The odds are I won't get much better than this.
There's one early game this week, so I'm going to predict that one now and do the rest of the week's games later.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Yep. If last week's 6-0 record in Confident games tells you anything, it's this: I actually felt confident about six games. This week, not so much -- there's only one game I feel confident about, and yes, it's the Patriots.
This is one of wildest-looking weeks of the season so far, and I'll be happy to break even. BTW, it turns out that I picked five upsets this week, and a couple of picks that I thought would be upsets have proven to be slight favorites. Shows what I know.
My biggest point-spread reach of the week? Giving 20 points to the Ravens and still taking the Patriots.
Not Betting the Farm (Thursday night)
Green Bay at (-7) Dallas: This one is getting attention for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which being it's one of the year's greatest matchups, and 40 percent of Americans won't be able to watch it at home. But forget all that. Both these teams are hot right now, with good defenses and great quarterbacks. Ultimately, though, I'm expecting this one to hinge on the matchup between the Cowboys wide receivers and Green Bay's corners. If Harris and Woodson win those individual battles you might see some cracks in Tony Romo's game. Absent that, however, I think Dallas is too good at home and will eventually force the younger Packers into mistakes. Cowboys win a memorable one. ATS: A touchdown is a lot in this one. Packers. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread. Hey, Favre got injured. What can I say?