WEEK 9 REPORT:
WINNERS: 9-5 (.643); SEASON: 84-46 (.646)
ATS: 4-10 (.286); SEASON: 65-65 (.500)
ATS BEST BETS: 2-2; SEASON: 14-15 (.483)
Last week was my worst of the season at picking against the spread, dropping me down to .500 and reminding me to appreciate anything that stays above .520, the profitable percentage.
The strange part? A week after noticing that my combined ATS percentage between the Confident and NBTF categories was starting to look good, I picked a surprising number of NBTF games (seven) and missed the point-spread-pick on every single one of them.
Confident (Week 8: 2-1 winners, .667; 2-1 ATS, .667. Season: 36-10 winners, .783; 25-21 ATS, .543)
Philadelphia at (-2.5) Washington (early): The Eagles looked like roadkill against the Cowboys at home. Now they're on the road to a Redskins team that's winning ugly games. Skins win ugly again. ATS: Redskins cover. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Chicago at (+3.5) Oakland (late): The Bears really needed that bye week, and the Raiders appear to be coming apart a bit. ATS: That said, I'm not convinced this Bears team is ready to beat anybody big. I'm taking the Raiders against the spread. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Indianapolis at (+3.5) San Diego (SNL): On paper the Chargers have the talent to win this. I'd be shocked if the Colts lost. ATS: This feels close, but I've just got a lot of confidence in the Colts this week. OUTCOME: Wow. Adam chokes? That's a first. Wrong on both.
Not Betting the Farm (Week 8: 4-3 winners, .571; 0-7 ATS, .000. Season: 19-13 winners, .594; 15-17 ATS, .469)
Cleveland at (-10) Pittsburgh (early): The Steelers really should win, but the Browns are on a roll since getting their clocks cleaned by Pittsburgh in Week 1. I'm taking the Steelers, but I expect a good game. ATS: Brownies. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Jacksonville at (-4.5)Tennessee (early): David Garrard might be back, which would help, and these teams have traditionally played each other tough. But I like the Titans just a little more right now. ATS: Close game. Jaguars. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Dallas at (+1.5) N.Y. Giants (late): The Cowboys are really playing pretty good ball right now. Lots of points in this one. ATS: Cowboys.OUTCOME: Right on both.
Just Guessing (Week 6: 3-1 winners, .750; 2-2 ATS, .500. Season: 29-24 winners, .547; 23-30 ATS, .434)
Buffalo at (+3) Miami (early): This should be one of those games where the Bills roll over a lesser opponent. My gut says otherwise. Miami finally wins one. ATS: I'm picking the upset, so Dolphins. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Atlanta at (-3.5) Carolina (early): The Panthers are terrible at home and they're back to Vinny this week. Both teams stink, but give me the Falcons to win their second in a row. ATS: Falcons. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Minnesota at (-5.5) Green Bay (early): Adrian Peterson single-handedly beat the Chargers, but that's tough to do two weeks in a row. Is he up to it? More likely the Vikings QB situation sinks them and the Packers stay hot. ATS: Packers. OUTCOME: Right on both.
St. Louis at (-10.5) New Orleans (early): I think the Rams give the Saints a good game, but the Saints are getting it going, and the Rams are still a patchwork mess. ATS: Picking the Rams to cover is usually a mistake, so even though I want to ... aw, hell, I'll take the Rams anyway. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Denver at (-3) Kansas City (early): So, which team is worse off: Denver without Cutler or KC without LJ? I hate picking this game, but... KC. ATS: Chiefs. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Detroit at (-1.5) Arizona (late): If the Lions win this they're for real as a playoff contender. If they lose, the jury remains out. I think they lose. Cardinals. ATS: How do the Cardinals wind up the favorite in this game? Looks like I'm taking them. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Cincinnati at (-3.5) Baltimore (late): Another tough pick. Both teams are playing poorly in different ways. Bengals upset them early, and I'll take them to sweep. ATS: Bengals in the upset. OUTCOME: Right on both.
San Francisco at (-9.5) Seattle (MNF): The 49ers did well against the Seahawks in 2006 and desperately need a win. But this has been an extremely disappointing year for the 49ers, and I expect that to continue. Seahawks. ATS: Seahawks throw the ball, cover. OUTCOME: Right on both.