WEEK 14 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 139-71 (.662)
ATS: 9-7 (.562); SEASON: 112-96 (.538)
ATS BEST BETS: NA; SEASON: 20-19 (.513)
Since somebody asked about it last week (and since I happen to be on vacation instead of my usual working-two-jobs and balls-to-the-wall state), I'm filing these picks on Wednesday.
Had another decent week picking winners, and my 9-7 against the spread was a touch better than my season average of .538. Which should tell you something about the tenuous nature of my campaign against the Vegas line: I'm only three games ahead of the .520 profitability threshold.
Confident (Week 13: 6-0 winners, 1.000; 3-2 ATS, 600. Season: 53-13 winners, .803; 38-28 ATS, .575)
Cincinnati at (+8.5) San Francisco (Saturday):NFL football is about quarterbacks, and the 49ers couldn't cobble one together from spare parts this week. Bengals. ATS: Bengals. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Atlanta at (-3.5) Tampa Bay (early): Sheesh. Their coach just quit on them, too. I don't know if things can get much worse for the Falcons. Bucs win. ATS: Bucs. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Baltimore at (+3.5) Miami (early): The Ravens aren't a great football team, but they at least play football. I'm not sure what the 07 Dolphins are playing. ATS: Ravens. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Green Bay at (+9.5) St. Louis (early): Brett Favre and the Packers in a dome? Yes, thank you. ATS: Packers. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Seattle at (+7) Carolina (early): Another team without a QB faces at West Coast unit that's riding high. Seahawks. ATS: Seahawks. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Indianapolis at (10.5) Oakland (late): Oakland got better this year, but they're still looking upward toward mediocrity. Colts. ATS: Colts. OUTCOME: Right on winners, wrong on spread.
Detroit at (-11) San Diego (late): So much for all that talk about going 10-6, eh, Lions? Chargers at home. ATS: Lions. OUTCOME: Right on winners, wrong on spread.
Not Betting the Farm (Week 13: 5-1 winners, .833; 3-3 ATS,.500. Season: 34-18 winners, .654; 28-24 ATS, .538)
N.Y. Jets at (-23.5) New England (early): Yes, I know this is weird, but... well, the Steelers were the last team on the Patriots schedule to look like a threat and people being people sometimes they let up just a bit.... and, and, and... well, the Jets sometimes play the Patriots tough. So I'm taking the Patriots, but I'm not as confident as I usually feel. ATS: Jets. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Tennessee at (+3.5) Kansas City (early): The Titans lost a heartbreaker, but I think they'll snap back in KC. Then again, the Titans have been hard on me this year. ATS: Titans. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Philadelphia at (-10) Dallas (late): Should be the Cowboys all evening long, but it being a divisional game, I'm feeling a bit cautious. ATS: Eagles. OUTCOME: Wrong on winners, right on spread.
Chicago at (-11) Minnesota (MNF): The Vikings should win and I'm taking them, but I don't know what to expect from a Kyle Orton-led Bears team. ATS: Bears. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Just Guessing (Week 13: 2-3 winners, .400; 3-2 ATS, 600. Season: 51-41 winners, .554; 45-50 ATS*, .474 *= 3-GAME CONTINUITY ERROR)
Denver at (+1) Houston (Thursday): I whiffed on the Texans last week, and there's the whole Shanahan/Kubiak thing, but I just kinda like Culter and that crew to take one from Sage Rosenfelds. Broncos. ATS: Broncos. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Arizona at (-3.5) New Orleans (early): As dumb as this may seem, this game just feels like a Cardinals victory. ATS: Cardinals. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Buffalo at (-5.5) Cleveland (early):You'd like to think that the Brownies would walk off with this one, because the Bills really aren't that great, but Dick Jauron teams hang around and occasionally steal a win off the other guy's table. Browns. ATS: Browns. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Jacksonville at (-3.5) Pittsburgh (early): Talk about a tough turnaround: From the Pats to the Jags? Yikes! If the Jags run effectively they'll likely win, but I'm not going to give this to a Florida team on the road in December. Steelers. ATS: Steelers. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Washington at (-4.5) N.Y. Giants (SNF): No way Collins plays that way twice. Right? Giants. ATS: Giants. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
BEST BETS: Buccaneers, Ravens. OUTCOME: Right on Bucs, wrong on Ravens.