WEEK 15 REPORT:
WINNERS:8-8 (.500); SEASON: 147-79 (.656)
ATS: 7-9 (.437); SEASON: 119-105(.531)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-1; SEASON: 21-20 (.512)
So Week 15 was a pride smackdown for yours truly: Lots of upsets around the league, and I did a poor job of spotting them.
With two weeks to go, my season goals (above .650 on winners, above 52 percent against the spread) are right on the edge. It could go either way, and with Week 17 always so screwy, I could sure use a good week after last week's disaster.
Confident (Week 13: 4-3 winners, .571; 2-5 ATS, .286. Season: 57-16 winners, .781; 40-33 ATS, .548)
Dallas at (+11) Carolina (Saturday): I didn't see the Panthers beat the Seahawks, and I'm still trying to figure out exactly how it happened. Never mind: I don't see the Panthers winning two straight or the Cowboys losing two in a row. ATS: Cowboys.
Atlanta at (-10) Arizona (late): If you were the Falcons, wouldn't you just play not to get injured? Cardinals to win. ATS: Cardinals.
Oakland at (-13) Jacksonville (early): Jaguars should keep this well in hand. ATS: Jaguars.
Miami at (-22) New England (late): This would be the biggest regular season upset in recent memory. Which is to say it won't happen. Patriots. ATS: Patriots.
N.Y. Jets at (-9.5) Tennessee (late): A tough one, perhaps, but I've got the Titans to win. ATS: Jets.
Not Betting the Farm (Week 13:3-1 winners, .750; 4-0 ATS, 1.000. Season: 37-19 winners, .661; 32-24 ATS, .571)
Pittsburgh at (+7.5) St. Louis (Thursday): I wasn't completely stunned by the Steelers' pratfall last week, but "shocked" wouldn't be too far from accurate. This week's prime time game in St. Louis should be a bounce-back opportunity, and I'm expecting the Steelers to win big against a Rams team that is nevertheless getting healthier as the season winds down That said, it's entirely possible that this is a team on the ropes. We'll find out in a few hours. ATS: Steelers to cover. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Green Bay at (+8.5) Chicago (early): The Packers should waltz, but this is Bears and Packers at Soldier Field, about the closest thing to a college rivalry as you'll find in the NFL. Gives me pause, though not really much hope. ATS: Packers.
Houston at (+7.5) Indianapolis (early): Again, the Colts should roll. But something about that danged Sage Rosenfelds just makes me nervous... ATS: Texans.
Tampa Bay at (+5.5) San Francisco (late): If the Bucs were just a little better I'd be all over this, but they're really only average, with the 49ers making a late push for non-clown status. ATS: 49ers.
Baltimore at (-12) Seattle (late): Their choke against the Dolphins last week should have Ray Lewis shooting laser beams out of his eyes this Sunday. But then again, the Seahawks sucked last week, too, and they're at home. ATS: Ravens.
Just Guessing (Week 13: 1-4 winners, .200; 1-4 ATS, 200. Season: 52-45 winners, .536; 46-54 ATS*, .460 *= 3-GAME CONTINUITY ERROR)
Cleveland at (*3) Cincinnati (early): The Browns have everything to gain... so they'll lose the Battle of Ohio to the Bengals. It's just the Cleveland way. ATS: Bengals.
Kansas City at (-4.5) Detroit (early): Good luck calling this one, folks. I've got the slumping Lions to beat the slumping Chiefs. ATS: Chiefs.
N.Y. Giants at (+3) Buffalo (early): Again, I've got no real reason to say this but... Bills win this one. ATS: Bills.
Philadelphia at (-3) New Orleans (early): Can either one of these teams get on a roll? Not really. Saints. ATS: Eagles.
Washington at (-6.5) Minnesota (SNF): Playoffs are really on the line for both these teams, and the Redskins have been surprisingly tough. I've got the Vikings, though. ATS: Redskins.
Denver at (-9.5) San Diego (MNF): Two very disappointing AFC West teams. Somebody's got to win this divisions, and my guess is the Chargers. ATS: Broncos.