Another disappointing performance in Week 16 puts me right on the edge when it comes to my season goals (+65 percent winners, +52 percent ATS).
I'll do the final computations later. This week all I'm shooting for is one last round of predictions. I want 11-5 on winners and 10-6 spread picks, but let's face it: Week 17 is a crapshoot, and I've been in a slump for two weeks.
My advice: If you don't have to bet this week, just don't.
San Francisco at (-11.5) Cleveland (early): This is a must-win game for Cleveland, and potentially a Chris Weinke game for the 49ers. Browns. ATS: Browns.OUTCOME: Right on both.
Dallas at (-9) Washington (late): The game means everything for the Redskins, who are playing good ball under Todd Collins, and nothing to the Cowboys. ATS: Redskins. OUTCOME: Right on both.
NOT BETTING THE FARM
New England at (+13.5) N.Y. Giants (Saturday): The Patriots win, I think, but there's something about history that gives this one just a little drama. ATS: Patriots. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Cincinnati at (+2.5) Miami (early): The Dolphins are really a mess, so the Bengals save a little face. ATS: Bengals. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Tennessee at (+5.5) Indianapolis (SNF): Another motivation game, since the Titans control their own destiny and the Colts have nothing on the table. ATS: Colts. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Buffalo at (-7.5) Philadelphia (early): Buffalo has to feel good about this season, just as the Eagles have to feel lousy. But I think the Eagles take this one. ATS: Bills. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Carolina at (+2.5) Tampa Bay (early): Again, it depends on who shows up, and there's just no easy way to figure that out. I'm guessing the Panthers. ATS: Panthers. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Detroit at (-4.5) Green Bay (early): The Packers really choked in their game against the Bears and have no motivation to win this game. Again, flip a coin... and it comes up Lions in a crapfest. ATS: Lions. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
New Orleans at (+2) Chicago (early): What a difference a year makes. The Saints are the team with the quarterback, but what the Hell -- I think the Bears go out on a positive note: Their only two-game winning streak of 2007. ATS: Bears. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Seattle at (-1) Atlanta (early): The Seahawks' December slump has been awful, and now they have nothing to play for. Falcons. ATS: Falcons. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Jacksonville at (-6.5) Houston (early): I really don't know. Jacksonville is a serious post-season threat, but I can see a Texans win here real easily. ATS: Houston. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Kansas City at (-6.5) N.Y. Jets (late): Really, who cares? Jets. ATS: Chiefs. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Minnesota at (+2.5) Denver (late): The Vikings kinda have a reason to win, and they're built to win in cold weather. But Denver can run, too, and what's more, Denver can pass. Broncos. ATS: Broncos. OUTCOME: Right on both.
San Diego at (+8.5) Oakland (late): Again, who knows? I'm taking the Chargers. ATS: Raiders. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
St. Louis at (-7) Arizona (late): The Rams usually have their way with the Cardinals. But give me the Cardinals. ATS: Rams. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Pittsburgh at (+3) Baltimore (late): The Steelers can improve their postseason draw with a win and the Ravens are just about finished. Still, the Steelers are beat-up, so it's a toss-up. ATS: Ravens. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.