Wide receivers are plentiful, which means there's always SOMEONE on the waiver wire with a decent matchup. Of course, spotting that free agent player each week is a bit of a psychic trick.
My approach this year? I'm focusing on the receivers that are available in the first four rounds, and I want at least two of them. A nice third receiver would be a bonus, but beyond that? They're mostly roster fillers, to be swapped out with waiver-wire pickups as the season progresses.
Running backs are generally considered the Kings of Fantasy Football, which is nice for them, since with the pounding they take, your average fruit fly has a longer career. But there's a flip side: With the emphasis on acquiring RBs, their draft price stays extremely high in most leagues. Which means you'll be tempted to over-pay for them, and a flop can be extremely costly.
One thing we've learned about drafting: There are always going to be guys on your board that you wouldn't mind drafting, and if they fall into a value spot, maybe you'll take 'em.
But want really counts -- if you've been keeping up with your off-season homework -- are the guys who have a nice aura around them whenever your thoughts turn their way. The guys you like, not only to be OK, but to really help your team.
Here's my list of the guys I feel good about this offseason, along with a list of guys who I'd like to feel good about (my "Want To Like," or WTL, players), only my head keeps intervening...
(Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Rex Grossman, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Matt Schaub, WTL: Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, Philip Rivers, JP Losman, Daunte Culpepper)
I wrote my first post on this year's potential sleeper picks back on July 1, before the start of training camp. How are those picks holding up after the first week of preseason games?
Each pick is rated an "up," "down," "hold" or "out." I've also added a couple of new players to the list.
It's always nice to have an ace up your sleeve. Here are four stealthy, backup QB aces for you to keep hidden -- right up until the moment when you spring a brilliant roster move on your unsuspecting league.
Ranks based on recent Average Draft Position results...
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego. His numbers could go down by a third and LT would still be the No. 1 player in fantasy. That's just sick.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis. He deserves this ranking, but he's nowhere close to Tomlinson and probably won't produce like last year's No. 2.
3. Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City. I expect a big decline here: Kansas City is rebuilding, the O-line is cheesecloth, the QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle, and LJ, coming off another punishing year, is holding out of training camp. He's already dropping in recent expert drafts and that trend could continue.
4. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco. The situation is great, the player had a breakout year in 2006 ... and something about this scares me. Gore is playing on rebuilt bionic knees and just broke his hand, which means he'll enter September a little rusty. Again, not specific -- just a bad feeling.
5. Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle. If I can get him at six, seven or eight, I'd feel pretty good about the value. Alexander is in decline, but he can still be good in spurts, and he's reported to camp in great shape.
While we don't question the underlying logic of the Stud Running Back Theory, we're on the record as heretics when it comes to the widespread belief that uninspiring RBs should trump quality players at other positions on draft day. But what comes next? What strategy makes sense for 2007?
Well, here goes: Unless you can get Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer or Tom Brady, don't draft a quarterback in the first seven rounds. And no, we're not smoking crack.
A reminder about the special "team-game" qualities that make football particularly interesting: The unexpected retirement of Tarik Glenn, the outstanding left tackle for the Indianapolis Colts, could have an immediate and tangible affect on the fantasy stock of every Colt player.
You know the conventional wisdom about offensive linemen (left tackle is the most significant position, guards power the running game, but center is the key to a great unit) so we won't go through the logic in detail. Suffice it to say that Glenn has been the starting left tackle in every single NFL game Peyton Manning has ever played. You don't take away a passer's blindside protector without changing his rhythm. Yada yada yada.
Does that bump Manning from the top of the fantasy QB ratings? No, but it increases his injury risk and decreases expectations for the Colts' overall offensive production. RB Joseph Addai probably takes the biggest hit: fantasy owners like him as much for his role in the traditionally productive Colts offense as they do for his above-average talent, and he's routinely selected in the first half of this summer's first rounds.
There's little doubt that offensive line play is the least-understood component of fantasy football, but if you're looking for evidence of its value, look no farther than Kansas City, where a once-great offensive line is in decline. Here are the key rushing stats for the Chiefs over the past four seasons:
2003: 1,929, 4.3 ypc, 32 TDs;
2004: 2,289, 4.6 ypc, 31 TDs;
2005: 2,382, 4.6 ypc, 26 TDs;
2006: 2,143, 4.2 ypc, 17 TDs.
End of the world? No. But as a fantasy player looking at Larry Johnson's prospects for 2007, I know that Johnson was a better producer in 2005 with Will Shields at guard than he was in 2006 without him. I also know that there's not a Shields-quality guard on the Chiefs' roster for 2007, and I adjust my expectations accordingly.
What fact best predicted a decline in production for Shaun Alexander in 2006? The departure of guard Steve Hutchinson for Minnesota. Offensive line assessments are one reason to be optimistic about Thomas Jones (young Jet linemen improving) and Travis Henry (Denver's blocking scheme is proven). They're also why I'm skeptical about Steven Jackson (Orlando Pace is fading and only RT Alex Barron shows potential) and Rudi Johnson (just lost G Eric Steinbach).
Time to add Addai to that second list as well.
Maurice Jones-Drew should be the poster-child for why we love fantasy football. There's always some undrafted (in fantasy drafts, anyway) player who explodes on the scene, upending all sorts of calculations. Fifteen touchdowns and about 1,400 combined yards later, it's up to us to classify his 2006 season and project him into his second year, and his standard deviation in mock drafts suggests that's not an easy task.
The basics: Jones-Drew is a short (under 5-7), thick running back with enormously powerful thighs and 4.4 pop. After starring at UCLA, he was drafted in the second round by the Jacksonville Jaguars as the heir apparent to Fred Taylor in 2006. Though he excelled as a kickoff returner and the oft-injured Taylor stayed healthy, Jones-Drew was too good to keep on the bench. He finished the year with 116 rushing attempts and put up his excellent stats despite having only six games in which he received more than 15 combined rushing/receiving touches.
While I've tended to focus on writing analysis of players with jittery standard deviation numbers in mock drafts, I want to step off that train for a moment and talk about Travis Henry, because he's another player with the potential to make or break your 2007 season.
The basics: Henry was a 2nd round pick by Buffalo in 2001 who broke out in his second campaign to the tune of 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. His third season was marred by injury and the rapid decline of Drew Bledsoe, and in Year 4 Henry was basically benched in favor of Willis McGahee. For two seasons this tough-running little warrior was an NFL outcast, a sign of just how quickly fortunes can change for a running back. But in 2006, Henry revived his career with a 1,200-yard season in Tennessee and got an invitation to play for Mike Shanahan in Denver. He's falling into the early second round in this year's drafts.
Fantasy Karma!
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