2004 Predictions
NFC
North
Vikings: 12-4 predicted, 8-8 actual, -4 difference, finish 2nd
Packers; 9-7 predicted, 10-6 actual, +1 difference, finish 1st
Bears: 7-9 predicted, 5-11 actual, -2 difference, finish 4th
Lions: 6-10 predicted, 6-10 actual, HIT, finish 3rd
South
Panthers: 9-7 predicted, 7-9 actual, -2 difference, finish 3rd
Saints: 9-7 predicted, 8-8 actual, -1 difference, finish 2nd
Falcons: 7-9 predicted, 11-5 actual, +4 difference, finish 1st
Bucs: 6-10 predicted, 5-11 actual, -1 difference, finish 4th HIT
East (yes)
Eagles: 12-4 predicted, 13-3 actual, +1 difference, finish 1st HIT
Cowboys: 8-8 predicted, 6-10 actual, -2 difference, finish tie 2nd
Redskins: 7-9 predicted, 6-10 actual, -1 difference, finish tie 2nd
Giants: 5-11 predicted, 6-10 actual, +1 difference, finish tie 2nd
West (yes)
Seahawks: 12-4 predicted, 9-7 actual, -3 difference, finish 1st HIT
Rams: 6-10 predicted, 8-8 actual, +2 difference, finish 2nd HIT
Arizona: 4-12 predicted, 6-10 actual, +2 difference, finish 3rd HIT
49ers: 4-12 predicted, 2-14 actual, -2 difference, finish 4th HIT
AFC
North
Ravens: 10-6 predicted, 9-7 actual, -1 difference, finish 2nd
Bengals: 10-6 predicted, 8-8 actual, -2 difference, finish 3rd
Steelers: 7-9 predicted, 15-1 actual, +8 difference, finish 1st
Browns: 4-12 predicted, 4-12 actual, HIT, finish 4th HIT
South
Titans: 10-6 predicted, 5-11 actual, -5 difference, finish 4th
Colts: 10-6 predicted, 12-4 actual, +2 difference, finish 1st
Jaguars: 9-7 predicted, 9-7 actual, HIT, finish 2nd
Houston: 8-8 predicted, 7-9 actual, -1 difference, finish 3rd
East
Jets: 11-5 predicted, 10-6 actual, -1 difference, finish 2nd
Patriots: 10-6 predicted, 14-2 actual, +4 difference, finish 1st
Bills: 6-10 predicted, 9-7 actual, +3 difference, finish 3rd
Dolphins: 3-13 predicted, 4-12 actual, +1 difference, finish 4th HIT
West
Chiefs: 10-6 predicted, 7-9 actual, -3 difference, finish 3rd
Raiders: 8-8 predicted, 5-11 actual, -3 difference, finish 4th
Broncos: 7-9 predicted, 10-6 actual, +3 difference, finish 2nd
Chargers: 2-14 predicted, 12-4 actual, +10 difference, finish 1st
Findings:
- My average prediction was 2.97 games off, which is to say that my margin of error is roughly 19 percent across a 16-game schedule.
- Thirteen of my 32 record predictions (40 percent) were within one game of the actual results. Only three were hits.
- I tended to over-estimate performances. Of the 29 team records that were incorrectly predicted, I projecting extra wins for 16 of them. Despite this optimism, when I missed I missed big, actually registering an under-over ratio of +8 games.
- I was terrible at picking division winners, picking only two of eight (25 percent) correctly. I was much better at picking 4th-place teams, getting that right in five of the eight divisions.
- I was not good at predicting whether teams would finish with winning or losing records: If you count a hit as a match between a prediction of a winning or a losing season and the actual outcome, I got just 18 (56 percent) correct, just slightly ahead of random chance.
- I seriously underestimate the performance of eventual division winners, who are about 3.4 games better than I thought they'd be.
- My predicted division winners are predictably over estimated in terms of wins, requiring an average adjustment of -2.25 games.
Now let's compare that to how I did in 2005...
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