Fantasy Mashup

Guys I like: Quarterbacks

One thing we've learned about drafting: There are always going to be guys on your board that you wouldn't mind drafting, and if they fall into a value spot, maybe you'll take 'em.

But want really counts -- if you've been keeping up with your off-season homework -- are the guys who have a nice aura around them whenever your thoughts turn their way. The guys you like, not only to be OK, but to really help your team.

Here's my list of the guys I feel good about this offseason, along with a list of guys who I'd like to feel good about (my "Want To Like," or WTL, players), only my head keeps intervening...

(Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Rex Grossman, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Matt Schaub,  WTL: Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, Philip Rivers, JP Losman, Daunte Culpepper)

4 backup QB surprises

It's always nice to have an ace up your sleeve. Here are four stealthy, backup QB aces for you to keep hidden -- right up until the moment when you spring a brilliant roster move on your unsuspecting league.

The QB Platoon Theory

While we don't question the underlying logic of the Stud Running Back Theory, we're on the record as heretics when it comes to the widespread belief that uninspiring RBs should trump quality players at other positions on draft day. But what comes next? What strategy makes sense for 2007?

Well, here goes: Unless you can get Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer or Tom Brady, don't draft a quarterback in the first seven rounds. And no, we're not smoking crack.

"Stud RB" Theory, RIP

I'm from that generation of pre-Internet fantasy players who had to puzzle out the Stud Running Back Theory on our own. People tried all sorts of wild ideas at the top of drafts in the early 1990s, but ever since the rise of the Web and the explosion of professional fantasy pubs and sites, EVERYBODY knows that the key to success is acquiring two stud running backs ASAP.

I see two immediate problems with this development:

First, if everyone has the same strategy, that isn't a strategy anymore -- it's background music. It's the status quo against which you have to develop a new winning strategy.

And second: The Stud RB drafting theory would make a lot more sense if fantasy owners were better at telling the studs from the duds. Consider this "expert" mock draft from a year ago ("these are all fantasy football experts who have played in several leagues per year for at least a decade, so study the picks closely because there is a lot of knowledge here"). Check out how many of the RBs taken in the first and second rounds were either flat-out busts or season-killing under-performers...

2007 Busts

It may actually be easier to spot which players are headed for a bad season than the guys who are about to break out. Here's my list of guys to treat skeptically in 2007...

2007 Fantasy Sleepers

How I figured this list: A lot of analysts confuse undervalued players with sleepers, so let's clear that up first. A sleeper is a player who:

1. Isn't generally ranked as a legitimate fantasy starter;
2. Can typically be found in the second half of a fantasy draft;
3. Shows potential to become a significant fantasy contributor at some point in the upcoming season, producing numbers that will compare favorably to "consensus" starters.

(Players like San Diego's Vincent Jackson don't appear on this list because they've already been identified by most analysts as legitimate 2007 fantasy starters, thereby raising their draft status.)

On to the list...