Fantasy Mashup

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB

Maurice Jones-Drew should be the poster-child for why we love fantasy football. There's always some undrafted (in fantasy drafts, anyway) player who explodes on the scene, upending all sorts of calculations. Fifteen touchdowns and about 1,400 combined yards later, it's up to us to classify his 2006 season and project him into his second year, and his standard deviation in mock drafts suggests that's not an easy task.

The basics: Jones-Drew is a short (under 5-7), thick running back with enormously powerful thighs and 4.4 pop. After starring at UCLA, he was drafted in the second round by the Jacksonville Jaguars as the heir apparent to Fred Taylor in 2006. Though he excelled as a kickoff returner and the oft-injured Taylor stayed healthy, Jones-Drew was too good to keep on the bench. He finished the year with 116 rushing attempts and put up his excellent stats despite having only six games in which he received more than 15 combined rushing/receiving touches.

"Stud RB" Theory, RIP

I'm from that generation of pre-Internet fantasy players who had to puzzle out the Stud Running Back Theory on our own. People tried all sorts of wild ideas at the top of drafts in the early 1990s, but ever since the rise of the Web and the explosion of professional fantasy pubs and sites, EVERYBODY knows that the key to success is acquiring two stud running backs ASAP.

I see two immediate problems with this development:

First, if everyone has the same strategy, that isn't a strategy anymore -- it's background music. It's the status quo against which you have to develop a new winning strategy.

And second: The Stud RB drafting theory would make a lot more sense if fantasy owners were better at telling the studs from the duds. Consider this "expert" mock draft from a year ago ("these are all fantasy football experts who have played in several leagues per year for at least a decade, so study the picks closely because there is a lot of knowledge here"). Check out how many of the RBs taken in the first and second rounds were either flat-out busts or season-killing under-performers...

Where have all the RBs gone?

Ask anybody who has ever played fantasy football and they'll tell you that running backs are the kings of the game. This is practically an article of faith, based on decades of statistics and some simple but reliable observations about strategy.  It's the reason that most owners will draft two running backs before they address any other position. It's why an excellent wide reciever can often be had for a mediocre RB in trade.

It's also why your fantasy league has been generating some unexpected winners in 2006. Rushing touchdown production among the league's top ground-gainers is down -- way down -- over the first three weeks of the season. Compared to full-year statistics from 2005, per-game rushing touchdown production among the top 12 NFL rushers (the group fantasy players generally refer to as "No. 1 RBs") is down an eye-popping 36 percent this season.

The top 12 rushers of 2005 generated .69 rushing touchdowns per game. In 2006, that group is producing just .44 touchdowns per game. The rate drops only slightly why we look at the top 24 rushers, who are scoring .41 touchdown per game, adjusted for byes.

The downward trend is less pronounced when the comparison is applied across the league's top 24 rushers, but it doesn't go away. Among these likely starters, rushing TD production is down about 21 percent.

I don't have time to do a full analysis this morning, but look at some quick indicators and you'll spot the outline of a larger trend: After three weeks of play, NFL defenses are stuffing the run in ways that could change fantasy strategy.

• Four of the top five NFL rushers this season have yet to score a rushing touchdown.
• Five of the top 12 rushers have a yards-per-carry average below the magic 4.0 threshold. Last year only one of the top 12 held that dubious distinction.
• The No. 12 rusher in the NFL is a quarterback.
• Six of the top 24 are either backups or members of Running Back By Committee systems.

The big question: Why? Has the current arms race between offensive and defensive strategy made running the ball less effective? Has the evolution of offensive line philosophy emphasized pass protection over run production? Is there less talent? Or was 2005 the anomaly?

In the meantime, fantasy football players should be prepared to adjust their roster philosophy. If the era of the dominant Franchise RB is in decline, then the position might become more like WR, where situational matchups and waiver-wire scouting make up a big part of the game.

Originally posted on Xark! on Sept. 26, 2006.

                

It's also why your fantasy league has been generating some unexpected winners in 2006. Rushing touchdown production among the league's top ground-gainers is down -- way down -- over the first three weeks of the season. Compared to full-year statistics from 2005, per-game rushing touchdown production among the top 12 NFL rushers (the group fantasy players generally refer to as "No. 1 RBs") is down an eye-popping 36 percent this season.

The top 12 rushers of 2005 generated .69 rushing touchdowns per game. In 2006, that group is producing just .44 touchdowns per game. The rate drops only slightly why we look at the top 24 rushers, who are scoring .41 touchdown per game, adjusted for byes.

The downward trend is less pronounced when the comparison is applied across the league's top 24 rushers, but it doesn't go away. Among these likely starters, rushing TD production is down about 21 percent.

I don't have time to do a full analysis this morning, but look at some quick indicators and you'll spot the outline of a larger trend: After three weeks of play, NFL defenses are stuffing the run in ways that could change fantasy strategy.

• Four of the top five NFL rushers this season have yet to score a rushing touchdown.
• Five of the top 12 rushers have a yards-per-carry average below the magic 4.0 threshold. Last year only one of the top 12 held that dubious distinction.
• The No. 12 rusher in the NFL is a quarterback.
• Six of the top 24 are either backups or members of Running Back By Committee systems.

The big question: Why? Has the current arms race between offensive and defensive strategy made running the ball less effective? Has the evolution of offensive line philosophy emphasized pass protection over run production? Is there less talent? Or was 2005 the anomaly?

In the meantime, fantasy football players should be prepared to adjust their roster philosophy. If the era of the dominant Franchise RB is in decline, then the position might become more like WR, where situational matchups and waiver-wire scouting make up a big part of the game.

Originally posted on Xark! on Sept. 26, 2006.