Weekly sleeper starts

October 14, 2007

Wk 6 sleepers

In trouble and looking for a last-minute starter on this nastiest of bye weeks? We've got you covered. Each of these players is owned in less than 50 percent of CBS Sports online leagues, and each has a decent shot at being productive this week:

QB: Damon Huard. It looks like he's healthy, and he's available in 65 percent of leagues. Keep your expectations in check, since I expect the Chiefs to feed LJ the ball against that banged-up Bengals LB corps, but consider him a decent play if you're in a jam.

RB: Aaron Stecker. How slim are these pickings? Jason Wright, Cleveland's backup RB, is STARTING in 56 percet of leagues this week. I'm offering up Stecker because he's... well, because he's available in 81 percent of leagues, and I think Reggie Bush needs to have a guy in rotation. Plus he had a TD called back last week, and I think he's a decent player.

WR: Bryant Johnson. This guy has quietly become a solid No.3 for the Cardinals, and he flies under the radar because the starters are such big names. This week he gets the start (for Boldin), and I think he's got a chance to put up numbers. He's owned in 26 percent of leagues.

TE: Eric Johnson. I'm going back to the well with Johnson (35 percent ownership) just because he's getting so many looks. They haven't turned into TDs yet, but Brees keeps looking for him, and frankly, there's not much else available.

PK: Rob Bironas. This big-legged guy (19 percent ownership) looks like he could get a few FG chances against Tampa.

DST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're available in about 70 percent of leagues. I don't see them dominating the Titans, but I won't be surprised if the game is relatively low-scoring and includes a few Tennessee turnovers.

October 07, 2007

Wk 5 sleeper starters

Oct. 8th REVIEW: This week's stealth starters (players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues) went 2-2-2, (Hit, Miss, Draw) and were generally solid plays. Highlights? Pulling Leon Washington off the scrap heap for 7 emergency RB points and leading my benchmark league in defensive scoring with 24 points from the Titans...

Here are the five-week averages:

QB picks:  13.4 ppg

RB  picks:  6.2 ppg

WR picks: 3.6 ppg

TE picks: 2.2 ppg

PK picks: 7.4 ppg

DST picks: 15 ppg

Continue reading "Wk 5 sleeper starters" »

September 30, 2007

Wk4 sleeper starters

Been so busy with the other jobs that I haven't had much time to devote to fantasy football this week, but if you're in a bind (and with the first bye week and all the injuries out there right now, who isn't?) here are your last-minute sleeper starters for Week 4 (and remember: I only tell you about players who are available in more than 50 percent of CBS Sportsline leagues):

QB: (42 points, 14 ppg) Steve McNair. His injuries have dropped him below the 50 percent ownership threshold (42 percent), and this week he's probable against a Cleveland defense that's given up 11 touchdown passes in three weeks. If your guy is out, grab him. OUTCOME: 307 yards passing, one Pa TD, one INT, two yards rushing, 16 fantasy points. We'll call that a HIT, as it was better than five of the starters in my random CBS Sportsline league.

RB (13 points, 4.33 ppg): Leon Washington.
There isn't a good RB option available on the waiver wire this week, so you'd have to be pretty desperate (say, you have Steven Jackson and Ahman Green as your starters) to go this route. Here's the argument: For a non-starter, Washington (44 percent ownership) has value because he a factor in three phases of the game: running, passing and returning; he's a gamebreaker who at least has an opportunity to pick up long yards if he slips the first tackler; he's a threat to score every time he's on the field. But I feel really bad for you if you're down to this. OUTCOME: 24 rushing yards, 38 passing yards, one touchdown, 11 fantasy points. That's better than 16 of the 24 RB starters in my benchmark league, so mark that a HIT.

WR (12 points, 4 ppg): Brandon Stokely. He's always been a good little receiver, but injuries have dogged him. This week he's back healthy against his old team and should get more playing time with No. 1 WR Javon Walker hobbled by knee issues. OUTCOME: Two receptions, 20 yards, 1 fantasy point. MISS.

TE (8 points, 2.67 ppg): Greg Olsen.
He's in a tight-end committee, which is hard to get excited about, but in his first NFL action last week the Bears' rookie looked really good. I think the Bears will wind up having to throw more than they'd like to this week, and Olsen (44 percent) is a good threat to score even though he's not the starter. Besides, the obvious choices are owned right now, and the Lions are a good matchup for receivers. OUTCOME: I only saw him line up on a couple of series and Griese never looked his way once. Desmond Clark, meanwhile, hauled in seven for 44 and a score. MISS.

PK (21 points, 7 ppg): Kris Brown. The Houston kicker isn't exactly tearing up the pea patch, but Brown's (14 percent ownership) 24 points in three games is significantly better than "studs" like Nate Kaeding or Robbie Gould. He's indoors at Atlanta, where the Falcons aren't giving up huge points. Still and all, this could be one of those kicker duels, so I like his chances here. OUTCOME: 10 points. HIT.

DST (45 points, 15 ppg): 49ers.
You can pick up the San Francisco defense in 52 percent of leagues, and if you're stuck with a team like Chicago this week, it's time to consider making a switch. I know the Seahawks scored big last week, but I suspect the first team to 17 points wins this matchup by the Bay, and the 49ers are a greatly improved unit. OUTCOME: Six fantasy points. Losing Alex Smith in the first quarter killed this pick. MISS.

Good luck this week!

Editor's note: I'll add the percentages and history later.

September 21, 2007

Sleeper Starters No. 3

For those of you just joining us, here are the rules: I pick one player per week at each position so that there's something for anyone in search of an emergency starter   

The kicker? I limit my pool of available players to players that are owned in less than 50 percent of CBS Sportsline leagues. That makes it tricky, but that's what you're looking at with your team. Which is why we're here.

Continue reading "Sleeper Starters No. 3" »

September 14, 2007

Stealth Starters No. 2

Texans_d Last week's installment of "HELP! I NEED A PLAYER!" got us off to a decent start at QB (16 points), TE (3 points), WR (5 points) and PK (9 points). The week's big hit? Picking the Houston Texans (23 points) to beat up on the Chiefs. The week's bust: Packers RB Deshawn Wynn (1 point). Not much surprise there -- picking RBs off the wire is like looking for pearls in a bucket of chitlins.

Continue reading "Stealth Starters No. 2" »

September 09, 2007

Week 1: Sleeper starters

Every now and then one of your regular starters gets hurt or runs up against a tough matchup and you just need a one-week starter. Here's a feature I developed three years ago for a newspaper, suggesting one emergency starter per week. This year I'm expanding it here and keeping records.

The rules: I suggest only players who are available in 50 percent or more of CBSSportsline fantasy leagues.

QB: There aren't any significant QB injuries this week, and there are few regular starters I'd recommend benching because of matchup issues (with the possible exception of Jon Kitna versus the under-rated Oakland secondary), but if you're looking for that surprise starter, consider Jaguars signal-caller David Garrard (34 percent owned). He doesn't have much in the way of receivers, but he'll tuck it and run when his stiffs don't get open. Plus the Titans DBs don't look that threatening on paper. STAT UPDATE: Garrard's mediocre game (204 yards passing, 1 passing TD, 24 yards rushing) worked out to 16 points in CBS Sportsline's standard system... which happens to be more points than Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Brees or Donovan McNabb put up this week.  Hit.

RB: These are always the hardest to spot, since fantasy owners stock up on RBs the way survivalists stock up on ammo and MREs, but the Packers' big rookie Deshawn Wynn (0 percent ownership) looks like he'll get some playing time, and the Eagles could be a bit vulnerable against the run. I'm not sold on him, of course, but if you're desperate, he's my suggestion. STAT UPDATE: He didn't play as much as I thought he would and finished with 8 yards rushing and 18 yards receiving, good for 1 point. A miss.

WR: I really like this one, actually. With Mark Clayton still coming back from injury, Demetrius Williams (6 percent ownership) of the Ravens could easily become Steve McNair's top target. He's got T.O.-type potential and a matchup against a Bengals squad that seems to consider defense an option rather than a requirement. STAT UPDATE: Three receptions, 55 yards, equals 5 points in our scoring system. That's not going to feed the bulldog, but it's better than quite a few "studs" put up. We'll call it a tie Or maybe a tie-miss.

TE: Chicago tight end Desmond Clark (26 percent ownership) got little little fantasy love last year despite racking up six TDs and an outstanding 13.9 yard average. The arrival of Greg Olsen kept his value depressed in this year's drafts, too, but with Olsen out and Rex Grossman facing a fearsome Chargers pass rush, don't be surprised if Clark has a busy day. Yes, he could wind up pass blocking more than usual, but Clark is a nine-year veteran who knows how to help out a QB in need of a blitz outlet. STAT UPDATE: Three catches, 38 yards, 3 points, which isn't going to win you any games. On the other hand, it  was more than golden boys like Tony Gonzalez and Chris Cooley scored. Call it a tie.

PK: Nick Folk (10 percent ownership) is the guy listed in most preseason fantasy magazines as "Cowboys Kicker." He could suck, but I like his situation this week at home against the Giants. STAT UPDATE: He only got to attempt one field goal, hit it, and racked up six extra points. That tied him for 5th among the Sunday kickers. That's a hit.

DST: The Colts are going to surprise everybody this year, and they'll start tonight by preventing the Saints from scoring an offensive touchdown... Oh, wait, that already happened. In that case, my hunch pick of the week is the Houston Texans (7 percent ownership), largely because of their matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. STAT UPDATE: The Texans held the Chiefs to three points, brought back two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, notched three sacks and allowed just 219 total yards. Total damage: 23 points. That tied the Texans with the Chargers for the third-best defensive score of the week behind the Vikings and the Steelers. A big hit.

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