After the jump: 16 games in order of confidence...
(Two-week record: 7-1)
Baltimore (6-2) at Tennessee (2-6): Baltimore. This should be a good week to play Jamal Lewis in your fantasy league.
Buffalo (3-5) at Indianapolis (8-0): Indianapolis. Unless this turns into a reprise of the Chicago v. Miami game last week, the Colts should handle the Bills pretty easily. If Anthony Thomas is going to have a 100-yard game, this would be the week.
Cleveland (2-5) at Atlanta (5-3): Atlanta. Cleveland is improving and Atlanta is only so-so, but the Falcons had their "bad" game last week, and therefore are in line to have two "good" games. This should be a big week for the Falcons.
Houston (2-6) at Jacksonville (5-3) : Jacksonville. Remember a few weeks ago when the Jaguars stunk up the joint in Houston? The Jaguars do, and they're on a mini-roll with David Garrard at QB.
NY Jets (4-4) at New England (6-2): New England. I'm sticking with the notion that the Jets beat mediocre teams but don't hold up well against good teams. New England is a better-than-good team coming off a disappointing loss. Not even divisional familiarity saves the Jets here.
Denver (6-2) at Oakland (2-6): Denver. The good news for Oakland? The Raiders play pretty good defense. The bad news? So do the Broncos. A relatively close score wouldn't shock me, but the Broncos should dominate.
Dallas (4-4) at Arizona (1-7): Dallas. The Cardinals tend to get up for the Cowboys, and they showed us against the Bears what they can do when they're focused. But I'm still confident that Dallas will finally finish a game this week. They've been playing well and still losing. I like what Tony Romo is doing, by the way.
Washington (3-5) at Philadelphia (4-4): Philadelphia. The Eagles are one of the two most disappointing teams in the league by record, and yet you watch them play and you don't get the sense that they're performing that poorly. Washington, on the other hand, is a disaster. They got a gift from God last week, and I just don't see that continuing.
Not betting the farm
(Two-week record: 6-4)
Kansas City (5-3) at Miami (2-6): Miami. This is an upset special, and I base it on a gut feeling. Kansas City is a good team on a roll, but the Dolphins play excellent defense and finally figured out how to get Ronnie Brown into their attack last week. They're at home, and K.C. is ready for a one-week letdown.
San Diego (5-2) at Cincinnati (4-4). Cincinnati. I'm a big Chargers fan this year, but Cincinnati has been stuck in reverse and the pressure is really on Marvin Lewis to make these guys produce at home. There's enough talent on both sides of the ball for the Bengals to pull the upset, and San Diego is another team due for a letdown. Upset special No. 2.
St. Louis (4-4) at Seattle (5-3): Seattle. It looks like a shootout, and the Rams bring more weapons. Why pick the still-depleted Seahawks over a Rams team that packs Pro Bowl players at halfback and wide receiver? Because I have a lot of respect for the Seahawks defenders and the hostility of that stadium environment.
(Two week record: 4-6)
Green Bay (3-5) at Minnesota (4-4): Green Bay. Both these teams were pretty awful last week, so I'm taking the younger of the two starting quarterbacks for his youthful vigor. Seriously: Brad Johnson looked to be moving in slow-motion last week. The spark that marked his 2005 run has just gone out, and there's no one in the wings to replace him.
San Francisco (3-5) at Detroit (2-6). Detroit. I like the progress Alex Smith is making in his second year, but I'm not convinced he can win consistently on the road. This would be a huge win for the rebuilding 49ers, but I get the sense they may fall just short. This notion is based on the idea that the Lions will feature the running of Kevin Jones for the second consecutive week.
New Orleans (6-2) at Pittsburgh (2-6). Pittsburgh. Another upset pick. I was wrong about both of these teams earlier this year, but I'm taking the Steelers over the pretty-damned-good Saints because I think the Steelers are now this year's top spoiler. They're not making the playoffs. The pressure is off. Watch them finish strong.
Chicago (7-1) at NY Giants (6-2). Chicago. The Bears have played six very good offensive games and two truly horrible ones. This should be a tough spot for them, but I get the sense that it's an even tougher play for the injury-depleted Giants. Here's a sleeper to watch for: Injured wide receiver Bernard Berrian won his starting job in camp by surpassing injured second-year man Mark Bradley, who is still coming back from an ACL. With the Bears in need of someone to stretch the field against some very beatable Giant corners, Bradley could get the opportunity to change the game. But then I'm biased.
Tampa Bay (2-6) at Carolina (4-4): Carolina. This one should be an easy call, but I can't see it that way. Both of these teams are disappointed with their records, and even though the Panthers should be the obvious pick at home, they've had letdowns in Charlotte, too. The Bucs have a hard time limiting their mistakes and don't play well from behind. The Panthers just can't seem to close out games. I'm taking the Panthers based on homefield and a more experienced QB, but that's it.
Last week: Confident predictions, 3-1; Not-Betting-The-Farm predictions, 4-1; Just-Guessing, 2-3. Total for the week: 9-5.
Season record: 87-41 (.679 winning percentage)