Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

This week wasn't quite as wild as some others, but several respectable teams wound up pratfalling. And don't look now, but the Steelers are back from the dead...

1. San Diego Chargers, 12-2 (last week, No. 1): They've been atop this ranking now for more than a month, and I don't think there's anyone in the football universe who really disagrees with that ranking now. Granted, Philip Rivers had a mediocre outing against the Chiefs, but as we've established in the past, young quarterbacks have bad games. Come to think of it, veteran quarterbacks have bad games, too. Two things to ponder: 1. Not only is LT playing legendary football at the moment, he's getting his yards and touchdowns without getting punished for them (no small consideration when you think about the way Shaun Alexander ran last year and the way he's played since); 2. The Chargers are just getting warmed up on defense.

2. Baltimore Ravens, 11-3 (Last week, No. 2): Here's how good this team is: they can win with Kyle Boller at QB. I'm always tempted to downgrade the Ravens because they're not particularly exciting, but this veteran team is quietly getting it done week after week. 

3. Chicago Bears, 12-2 (last week, No. 3): Last week I pointed out that the Bears' defense is in decline. On Sunday afternoon, greybeards Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard illustrated my point, scoring on long pass plays from journeyman QB Tim Rattay in the Bucs' near-upset. I'm not panicking, though: The Bears' mission right now is staying sharp while getting healthy for the playoffs and with nothing left to achieve in the NFC, they're essentially headed into their second of three "playoff preseason" games. In the coming weeks they'll get back safety Todd Johnson and Pro Bowl cornerback Nathan Vasher, which should dramatically improve their run and pass defensive stats, respectively. If there's a problem, it's at DT. Over on offense, Rex Grossman had his second straight 100+ passer rating day (against the 8th best pass defense in the league), while the RBBC cranked out effective yardage on the ground. One cautionary note: Devin Hester didn't handle his MNF success very well, show-boating on kick returns and coughing up the ball twice.

Good teams
4. Dallas Cowboys, 9-5 (Last week, No. 6): The Atlanta win wasn't a masterpiece, but it showed how resilient this bunch can be. That's the main thing you want going into the playoffs, too -- the ability to remain focused, to regain lost momentum, to rebound from a bad play. The 'Boys could have easily dropped their second in a row, but instead wound up making a statement.

5. New England Patriots, 10-4 (last week, No. 7): I'd rank them above Dallas except for the fact that they're only 4-3 in the past seven weeks and are just a week removed from being shut out by the Dolphins (who were themselves shut out on Sunday -- go figure). Houston found out what several previous Pats opponents could have told them on the phone: It's hard to pass against these guys. Getting back Lawrence Maroney should give them a nice offensive jolt, not that they really need one.

6. Indianapolis Colts, 11-3 (last week, No. 5): Would they have come apart, their season psychologically damaged, had they been unable to staunch the bleeding against the Bengals? Three losses in a row at this point in the season could have unraveled this team, but look at them now: They're 11-3, champs in the AFC South, with remaining games against Houston and Miami. The most impressive part of the Colts victory was the fact that Marvin Lewis came out with a game plan to pound the Colts into submission with the powerful Rudy Johnson, and the Colts fought back on the line of scrimmage and won. The problems remain, but they're still alive and still contending.

7. New Orleans Saints, 9-5 (Last week, No. 4): This is the most overlooked trend in pro football: Team gets emotion win one week, comes back and lays an egg the next. I pointed out in last week's picks that I kept looking for something -- anything -- that would indicate an upset against the Redskins but couldn't find it. I shouldn't have looked any farther than what I wrote about the players pouring Gatorade on Sean Payton after the Dallas win. In retrospect, that was the story of their bizarre loss to the Skins -- the Saints came out and played like entitled punks. They didn't demonstrate the passion and pride that marked their earlier work. I don't think they'll play like that again, but who knows?

8. Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-7 (Last week: No. 12): Can they make the playoffs? I suppose it's possible, but regardless of the tiebreakers and all that other arcane shit, the Steelers are playing like a post-season team. Too bad they waited so long to start their season, eh?

9. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-6 (Last week, No. 8): They gave it a good run, but when they failed to take control of the rushing game in the first half of the Colts game, all the momentum from their past month dissipated into the processed air of the RCA Dome. Now their margin of error for an AFC wild card slot is practically nil, and their remaining games are against the Broncos and Steelers. Ouch.

10. Denver Broncos, 8-6 (last week, No. 14): No, it isn't a great year in Denver, but when the Broncos play like they're capable they're a significant team.

11. New York Jets, 8-6 (Last week, No. 15): Up until the Bills game two weeks ago, the Jets were the kind of team who won the games they were expected to win and occasionally pulled the upset. Losing to the Bills at the Meadowlands was the kind of game that made you question this program, and I doubted them going up against a tough Vikings defense in Minnesota. So what happened? Well, facing a defense that was daring him to throw, Chad Pennington threw all day and won an enormous road game that might just have salvaged the Jets' season.

12. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-6 (Last week No. 20). Jeff Garcia is back from the dead and so are the Eagles. This week's must-win game is the Cowboys and I don't think they'll win, but who knows? This is one of the most annoying and unpredictable teams in the NFL.

The Middle Muddle
13. Buffalo Bills, 7-7 (Last week, No. 17): J.P. Losman is the difference-maker on this team, which doesn't really excel at any phase of the game. Put it all together with a rising young QB, though, and the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. Lee Evans is a receiving machine even in terrible weather, but what the Bills really need is more production out of Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-6 (Last week, No. 14): The Jaguars are the football version of that smart kid from your graduating class who kept getting sent to rehab. They simply cannot handle success. There's really nothing wrong with them except for the fact that they're mentally broken and can't win three games in a row.

15. Seattle Seahawks, 8-6 (Last week, No. 9). With the chance to clinch their division two weeks in a row, the Seahawks keep stumbling to lesser teams -- first the Cardinals, then the 49ers in Seattle. So they're not horrible, but they're not going anywhere this season, even if they make the playoffs.

16. Tennessee Titans, 7-7 (Last week, No. 11):  That had to be one of the worst winning performances I've ever seen, and in this case it's really true to say that the Titans didn't so much beat the Jags as they just accepted a charitable donation. But you gotta respect the streak, and the Titans are finding ways to win.

17. Kansas City Chiefs, 7-7 (Last week, No. 16): You wanna know something scary? The last team to beat the Chargers were these Chiefs -- that was eight games ago, and the Chiefs were simply outclassed by the division leaders when they played in San Diego Sunday night. I don't know how they'll bounce back, but that was a painful and destructive loss. The Chiefs are a team at a crossroads, and I get the sense that they've overachieved a bit this season. They've got to look hard at the foundations of this unit in the offseason, but there are talented young players on this roster that could be built around.

18. San Francisco 49ers, 6-8 (Last week, No. 24): Who would have believed that the 49ers would sweep the Seahawks in 2006? Certainly not me. They're at least mathematically in the playoff hunt (along with just about everybody else in the NFC), but I think the most reasonable thing to expect from this group is a final-stretch split, a 7-8 record and lots of experience to build on for 2007, when they should win the NFC West outright. The Niners have the makings of a classic young offensive trio in Smith, Gore and rookie Vernon Davis, and coach Mike Nolan looks significantly better in a suit and tie than, say, Jack Del Rio.

19. Atlanta Falcons, 7-7 (Last week, No. 18): We have reached the point where Michael Vick can play like gangbusters and the Falcons lose anyway. It used to be that when Vick played that way the team usually won. Whatever they tried to do in Atlanta with Jim Mora hasn't worked, isn't showing signs of working, and may never work. So who do you bring in to right this ship? And if the Falcons dump Mora, how long before his daddy starts talking about how he was right about Vick being a coach-killer?

20. New York Giants, 7-7 (Last week, No. 13): So maybe they'll make the playoffs? If so, who cares? This really isn't a good team, and Coughlin needs to be accountable for that. I'm sick of their shtick.

Upward to Mediocrity!

21. Minnesota Vikings, 6-8 (Last week, No. 21): Does anybody else have the sense that the Vikings just went into rebuilding mode in their loss to the Jets? Tavaris Jackson may be the Vikings' player of the future, but he doesn't look to improve their chances of winning games at the end of 2006.

22. St. Louis Rams, 6-8 (Last week, No. 22): That game against the Raiders has the shape of the future imprinted on it. Ball-control isn't a Rams-like concept, but it will cover up for all sorts of short-comings on defense, and with this team, they're legion.

23. Miami Dolphins, 6-8 (Last week, No. 19): Typical: Saban's Dolphins follow-up their best performance of the year with a wet-weather shut-out in Buffalo. It's like they made a beautiful snow angel and then pissed all over it. Off-season questions loom for this team.

24. Carolina Panthers, 6-8 (Last week, No. 23): Last week I wrote this about the Panthers: "These guys stink. What the hell went wrong with the Panthers?" And this week, I merely repeat it. What, indeed? They're just getting worse.

25. Green Bay Packers, 6-8 (Last week, No. 26): Their win against the Lions was basically a gift, and Brett Favre played like he wanted to return it.

26. Washington Redskins, 5-9 (Last week, No. 27): So here's the thing: Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts give the Redskins a better chance to win games than do Clinton Portis and anybody else on their squad. Makes you wonder: Could this team be good if they weren't coached by the committee from Hell?

Their mothers are embarrassed
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-11 (Last week, No. 30): Give the Bucs some credit. They caught the Bears' flatfooted in the second half and almost pulled off a season-making upset. They didn't, but on the bright side, they're going to get a very good player in the draft.

28. Cleveland Browns, 4-10 (Last week, No. 25): I've been giving the Brownies too much love and respect. They're just another crappy team at this point, even if they did show signs of life against the McNair-less Ravens.

29. Arizona Cardinals, 4-10 (Last week, No. 28): Apparently the Broncos did something that the Seahawks didn't two weeks ago: They played pass defense. Matt Leinart and Co. had their chances, but who are we kidding? This is Denny Green and the Cardinals, and The Cardinals Are Who We Thought They Were.

30. Houston Texans, 4-10 (Last week, No. 29): Eeew. That was awful. And here's the worst part: The Texans have invested years in David Carr, but with the way he's been beaten down, he's never going to succeed there. The best thing that can happen is an amicable off-season trade. Both sides need a fresh start.

31. Detroit Lions, 2-12 (Last week, No. 32): No, the Lions didn't get better. The Raiders just got worse again.

32. Oakland Raiders, 2-12 (Last week, No. 31): The most amazing thing I saw all week last week was the Vegas line that made the Raiders a favorite at home against the Rams. What were those idiots thinking? Years of Bears' teams notwithstanding, you just can't win football games by playing good defense and awful offense. Not only is this team clueless, it's hopeless. Blow it up.

1. San Diego Chargers, 12-2 (last week, No. 1): They've been atop this ranking now for more than a month, and I don't think there's anyone in the football universe who really disagrees with that ranking now. Granted, Philip Rivers had a mediocre outing against the Chiefs, but as we've established in the past, young quarterbacks have bad games. Come to think of it, veteran quarterbacks have bad games, too. Two things to ponder: 1. Not only is LT playing legendary football at the moment, he's getting his yards and touchdowns without getting punished for them (no small consideration when you think about the way Shaun Alexander ran last year and the way he's played since); 2. The Chargers are just getting warmed up on defense.

2. Baltimore Ravens, 11-3 (Last week, No. 2): Here's how good this team is: they can win with Kyle Boller at QB. I'm always tempted to downgrade the Ravens because they're not particularly exciting, but this veteran team is quietly getting it done week after week. 

3. Chicago Bears, 12-2 (last week, No. 3): Last week I pointed out that the Bears' defense is in decline. On Sunday afternoon, greybeards Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard illustrated my point, scoring on long pass plays from journeyman QB Tim Rattay in the Bucs' near-upset. I'm not panicking, though: The Bears' mission right now is staying sharp while getting healthy for the playoffs and with nothing left to achieve in the NFC, they're essentially headed into their second of three "playoff preseason" games. In the coming weeks they'll get back safety Todd Johnson and Pro Bowl cornerback Nathan Vasher, which should dramatically improve their run and pass defensive stats, respectively. If there's a problem, it's at DT. Over on offense, Rex Grossman had his second straight 100+ passer rating day (against the 8th best pass defense in the league), while the RBBC cranked out effective yardage on the ground. One cautionary note: Devin Hester didn't handle his MNF success very well, show-boating on kick returns and coughing up the ball twice.

Good teams
4. Dallas Cowboys, 9-5 (Last week, No. 6): The Atlanta win wasn't a masterpiece, but it showed how resilient this bunch can be. That's the main thing you want going into the playoffs, too -- the ability to remain focused, to regain lost momentum, to rebound from a bad play. The 'Boys could have easily dropped their second in a row, but instead wound up making a statement.

5. New England Patriots, 10-4 (last week, No. 7): I'd rank them above Dallas except for the fact that they're only 4-3 in the past seven weeks and are just a week removed from being shut out by the Dolphins (who were themselves shut out on Sunday -- go figure). Houston found out what several previous Pats opponents could have told them on the phone: It's hard to pass against these guys. Getting back Lawrence Maroney should give them a nice offensive jolt, not that they really need one.

6. Indianapolis Colts, 11-3 (last week, No. 5): Would they have come apart, their season psychologically damaged, had they been unable to staunch the bleeding against the Bengals? Three losses in a row at this point in the season could have unraveled this team, but look at them now: They're 11-3, champs in the AFC South, with remaining games against Houston and Miami. The most impressive part of the Colts victory was the fact that Marvin Lewis came out with a game plan to pound the Colts into submission with the powerful Rudy Johnson, and the Colts fought back on the line of scrimmage and won. The problems remain, but they're still alive and still contending.

7. New Orleans Saints, 9-5 (Last week, No. 4): This is the most overlooked trend in pro football: Team gets emotion win one week, comes back and lays an egg the next. I pointed out in last week's picks that I kept looking for something -- anything -- that would indicate an upset against the Redskins but couldn't find it. I shouldn't have looked any farther than what I wrote about the players pouring Gatorade on Sean Payton after the Dallas win. In retrospect, that was the story of their bizarre loss to the Skins -- the Saints came out and played like entitled punks. They didn't demonstrate the passion and pride that marked their earlier work. I don't think they'll play like that again, but who knows?

8. Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-7 (Last week: No. 12): Can they make the playoffs? I suppose it's possible, but regardless of the tiebreakers and all that other arcane shit, the Steelers are playing like a post-season team. Too bad they waited so long to start their season, eh?

9. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-6 (Last week, No. 8): They gave it a good run, but when they failed to take control of the rushing game in the first half of the Colts game, all the momentum from their past month dissipated into the processed air of the RCA Dome. Now their margin of error for an AFC wild card slot is practically nil, and their remaining games are against the Broncos and Steelers. Ouch.

10. Denver Broncos, 8-6 (last week, No. 14): No, it isn't a great year in Denver, but when the Broncos play like they're capable they're a significant team.

11. New York Jets, 8-6 (Last week, No. 15): Up until the Bills game two weeks ago, the Jets were the kind of team who won the games they were expected to win and occasionally pulled the upset. Losing to the Bills at the Meadowlands was the kind of game that made you question this program, and I doubted them going up against a tough Vikings defense in Minnesota. So what happened? Well, facing a defense that was daring him to throw, Chad Pennington threw all day and won an enormous road game that might just have salvaged the Jets' season.

12. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-6 (Last week No. 20). Jeff Garcia is back from the dead and so are the Eagles. This week's must-win game is the Cowboys and I don't think they'll win, but who knows? This is one of the most annoying and unpredictable teams in the NFL.

The Middle Muddle
13. Buffalo Bills, 7-7 (Last week, No. 17): J.P. Losman is the difference-maker on this team, which doesn't really excel at any phase of the game. Put it all together with a rising young QB, though, and the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. Lee Evans is a receiving machine even in terrible weather, but what the Bills really need is more production out of Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-6 (Last week, No. 14): The Jaguars are the football version of that smart kid from your graduating class who kept getting sent to rehab. They simply cannot handle success. There's really nothing wrong with them except for the fact that they're mentally broken and can't win three games in a row.

15. Seattle Seahawks, 8-6 (Last week, No. 9). With the chance to clinch their division two weeks in a row, the Seahawks keep stumbling to lesser teams -- first the Cardinals, then the 49ers in Seattle. So they're not horrible, but they're not going anywhere this season, even if they make the playoffs.

16. Tennessee Titans, 7-7 (Last week, No. 11):  That had to be one of the worst winning performances I've ever seen, and in this case it's really true to say that the Titans didn't so much beat the Jags as they just accepted a charitable donation. But you gotta respect the streak, and the Titans are finding ways to win.

17. Kansas City Chiefs, 7-7 (Last week, No. 16): You wanna know something scary? The last team to beat the Chargers were these Chiefs -- that was eight games ago, and the Chiefs were simply outclassed by the division leaders when they played in San Diego Sunday night. I don't know how they'll bounce back, but that was a painful and destructive loss. The Chiefs are a team at a crossroads, and I get the sense that they've overachieved a bit this season. They've got to look hard at the foundations of this unit in the offseason, but there are talented young players on this roster that could be built around.

18. San Francisco 49ers, 6-8 (Last week, No. 24): Who would have believed that the 49ers would sweep the Seahawks in 2006? Certainly not me. They're at least mathematically in the playoff hunt (along with just about everybody else in the NFC), but I think the most reasonable thing to expect from this group is a final-stretch split, a 7-8 record and lots of experience to build on for 2007, when they should win the NFC West outright. The Niners have the makings of a classic young offensive trio in Smith, Gore and rookie Vernon Davis, and coach Mike Nolan looks significantly better in a suit and tie than, say, Jack Del Rio.

19. Atlanta Falcons, 7-7 (Last week, No. 18): We have reached the point where Michael Vick can play like gangbusters and the Falcons lose anyway. It used to be that when Vick played that way the team usually won. Whatever they tried to do in Atlanta with Jim Mora hasn't worked, isn't showing signs of working, and may never work. So who do you bring in to right this ship? And if the Falcons dump Mora, how long before his daddy starts talking about how he was right about Vick being a coach-killer?

20. New York Giants, 7-7 (Last week, No. 13): So maybe they'll make the playoffs? If so, who cares? This really isn't a good team, and Coughlin needs to be accountable for that. I'm sick of their shtick.

Upward to Mediocrity!

21. Minnesota Vikings, 6-8 (Last week, No. 21): Does anybody else have the sense that the Vikings just went into rebuilding mode in their loss to the Jets? Tavaris Jackson may be the Vikings' player of the future, but he doesn't look to improve their chances of winning games at the end of 2006.

22. St. Louis Rams, 6-8 (Last week, No. 22): That game against the Raiders has the shape of the future imprinted on it. Ball-control isn't a Rams-like concept, but it will cover up for all sorts of short-comings on defense, and with this team, they're legion.

23. Miami Dolphins, 6-8 (Last week, No. 19): Typical: Saban's Dolphins follow-up their best performance of the year with a wet-weather shut-out in Buffalo. It's like they made a beautiful snow angel and then pissed all over it. Off-season questions loom for this team.

24. Carolina Panthers, 6-8 (Last week, No. 23): Last week I wrote this about the Panthers: "These guys stink. What the hell went wrong with the Panthers?" And this week, I merely repeat it. What, indeed? They're just getting worse.

25. Green Bay Packers, 6-8 (Last week, No. 26): Their win against the Lions was basically a gift, and Brett Favre played like he wanted to return it.

26. Washington Redskins, 5-9 (Last week, No. 27): So here's the thing: Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts give the Redskins a better chance to win games than do Clinton Portis and anybody else on their squad. Makes you wonder: Could this team be good if they weren't coached by the committee from Hell?

Their mothers are embarrassed
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3-11 (Last week, No. 30): Give the Bucs some credit. They caught the Bears' flatfooted in the second half and almost pulled off a season-making upset. They didn't, but on the bright side, they're going to get a very good player in the draft.

28. Cleveland Browns, 4-10 (Last week, No. 25): I've been giving the Brownies too much love and respect. They're just another crappy team at this point, even if they did show signs of life against the McNair-less Ravens.

29. Arizona Cardinals, 4-10 (Last week, No. 28): Apparently the Broncos did something that the Seahawks didn't two weeks ago: They played pass defense. Matt Leinart and Co. had their chances, but who are we kidding? This is Denny Green and the Cardinals, and The Cardinals Are Who We Thought They Were.

30. Houston Texans, 4-10 (Last week, No. 29): Eeew. That was awful. And here's the worst part: The Texans have invested years in David Carr, but with the way he's been beaten down, he's never going to succeed there. The best thing that can happen is an amicable off-season trade. Both sides need a fresh start.

31. Detroit Lions, 2-12 (Last week, No. 32): No, the Lions didn't get better. The Raiders just got worse again.

32. Oakland Raiders, 2-12 (Last week, No. 31): The most amazing thing I saw all week last week was the Vegas line that made the Raiders a favorite at home against the Rams. What were those idiots thinking? Years of Bears' teams notwithstanding, you just can't win football games by playing good defense and awful offense. Not only is this team clueless, it's hopeless. Blow it up.