The flu will test who we are

"Flu is a highly political issue, to put it mildly," Terry Jones wrote this morning, and that's what I'm going to talk about -- not the science of it. Because science is only part of what we'll be facing in the coming days.

Whether or not history records April 2009 as the genesis of a global pandemic, there are some things we can expect with near certainty: Rumors, reports, controversy, credibility gaps and fear. So please bear these things in mind and, if you agree with these ideas, help spread them. Because fear is a deadly virus, too, and just as networked media can help spread it, network media can also serve as an immune system response to fear IF WE KEEP OUR HEADS AND WORK TOGETHER.

A CRISIS IN A NETWORKED WORLD
Public health officials have long feared that airline travel and global economics would turbocharge any pandemic disease. What would 1918-19 have been like with O'Hare and JFK efficiently routing Spanish influenza around the world? So too will today's government and media institutions worry about "managing" rumors and panics in networked media -- blogs, emails, Twitter, Facebook, etc. The 20th century mass media system was an ocean liner compared to the airliner that is 21st century networked media.

So here's what we must remember: Those of us who are comfortable with evaluating information and experienced in the use of these tools have a special responsibility today to help communicate some basic ideas to the new arrivals, or the people who've never used networked, social media for much beyond entertainment. 

Government leaders will fear these tools, because they cannot control them. But if my time in the military taught me anything, it's that environments that LACK information are the best breeding grounds for rumors and anxieties.  Yes, rumors will spread globally with mind-boggling speed, but if we also use these tools to cooperate, communicate accurate information and act in responsible ways, then we can have unprecedented group power to stave off panic. Panic is not just fear, but the sense that one is isolated and vulnerable.

The best antidote to panic is a cohesive community. Let's be that.

IT'S EVERYONE'S TURN TO USE NEWS JUDGMENT
Mass media journalism operates via the amorphous concept of "news judgment," which I've criticized as flawed after years of practicing it. Yet for all its imperfections, the basic ideas of good news judgment are now a civic responsibility.

• THINK ABOUT THE SOURCE. What do you know about the source? Is it reliable? Does the source have direct access to the information it's providing, or is the information second-hand? Has the source been trustworthy in the past? Does the original source have the expertise necessary to judge the situation competently? Who endorses the source? What pressure is the source under? What biases does the source have? What is the source's personal interest?
• HAS THE INFORMATION BEEN CONFIRMED INDEPENDENTLY? Two independent sources with direct knowledge of the information are better than one. And so on. But don't confuse multiple mentions of an item as being some form of independent sourcing. To independently confirm an existing source, a confirming source must have first-hand knowledge, expertise and a known identity.
• THE MORE UNUSUAL THE STATEMENT, THE MORE CAUTIOUS YOU SHOULD BE: It's a mistake to ignore the unusual, or the story that comes from a surprising place. But the more unusual it is, the higher your standard of confirmation should be. News companies do this to keep from being embarrassed, but in a crisis situation, you should do this to avoid contributing to a misinformation campaign.
• THE BIGGER THE STORY, THE MORE LIKELY THE HOAXES: This is why it's so important in the age of Twitter Search to ask: Who is the person who said this? How can I judge this person's credibility? Bad rumors are generally easy to spot, but a true hoax will look more like the real thing on second glance than it did on the first. There will be flu hoaxes, and let's be blunt: The best defense against them isn't the mass media, but thousands of us working together to expose the hoaxers.
• WHEN IN DOUBT, ASK: You don't have to take the information you receive as you receive it. If you want clarification, ask for it.
• IF YOU HAVE INFORMATION TO REPORT, DO IT RESPONSIBLY: Tell us who, when, what, where and why. Tell us how. Cite your sources. Use your real name. And remember the boy who cried wolf. Ultimately, we have to decide whether we believe YOU. If you want to be trusted when it counts, tend your reputation carefully.
• WORK TOGETHER: A group of people working together will learn more. It will also gain credibility far more quickly. Community and cooperation are humanity's original technologies. Use them. Share what you know, speculate transparently, creatively and constructively, and calm anyone who is struggling. You'll all be better for it.
• IMPROVE THE CREDIBILITY OF YOUR INFORMATION OVER TIME: If you've got something that looks legitimate and you report or re-Tweet it, be sure to continue to look for information that would confirm, reject or expand it. Don't be afraid to say you were wrong, and confirm accurate information without blowing your own horn.

STICK TOGETHER
Even if this flu never becomes a pandemic, our natural fear of infection is likely to disrupt our global systems to some degree. We'll think twice about going out in crowds, or traveling. We may notice masks and other changes that seem odd. We'll be susceptible to anxieties and we will naturally retreat to our homes where we feel safe ... and isolated.

Avoiding infection is good. Isolation is bad. And so I propose we use these online community tools to stick together and cooperate, even if only through the Web.

If this flu situation expands, we'll be facing a perfect storm of circumstances: A public health crisis, a global recession, a declining mass media system at a moment of networked media proliferation. And let's not forget: Twitter's still experiencing The Oprah Effect this week, with enormous swaths of newbies who will turn to networked media for news and guidance for the first time.

We didn't have these networked tools and communities in 2004-05, when H5N1 and SARS scared the pants off us. Let's do better this time. Even if it's just a trial run, let's use this as an opportunity to show what we can do by cooperating and acting like responsible adults. The world will be watching.

SUGGESTED HASHTAG: #SWINEFLU

Comments

[Jeff Tompkins]

I'm firmly in the "relax, wait and see" camp. It's early yet, and there's still time for the 24-hour news channels to find a car chase or a celebrity outburst or some other shiny object to report.

Yesterday afternoon, on a popular political message board, it was reported that Canadian officials were preparing to close their borders and restrict international flights. The source? Some douchebag on Twitter. Thousands of people saw the post on the message board and one can only guess how many times this "breaking story" was relayed to others.

Perhaps this entire story will go the way of previous panics: "summer of the shark" (which turned out to see fewer shark attacks than usual); "summer of kidnappings" (which turned out to see fewer kidnappings than usual); killer bees; a bee shortage; mad cow; SARS; bird flu; Y2K....

[Heather Solos]

I look at these headlines as a fire drill. It's not time to panic, but it's a time to look and see how prepared I am as an individual. If things go bad, then I'll be one less person standing in line if panic sets in. This year, I'll just make sure I'm ready for hurricane season a few weeks earlier than usual.

[Dan]

Well, those media memes have little to do with this one. I'm watching the NFL draft, not the news channels. But I'm reading Effect Measure and following the CDC, and this is a real threat.

There's no doubt we'll have another pandemic. The question is which one will go global.

This one? Who knows?

And the best thing to protect yourself? Wash your hands obsessively. OCD is good for you!

[Jeff Tompkins]

Dan, I'm not dismissing it entirely. I'm just skeptical when these things come up, based on the history of (somewhat) similar stories. Sorry if my comment came across as snarky.

[Dan]

No apology needed whatsoever! Just continuing the discussion. No snark detected or inferred! Thanks for the comments.

[Sue]

"We'll be susceptible to anxieties and we will naturally retreat to our homes where we feel safe ... and isolated."

This is the "polio season" of its decade. Back then, our parents kept us home. We played in the back yard on our swingset. We didn't go to movies or restaurants for the duration. We never felt isolated. And we didn't have the Internet.

I have no problem for those who feel isolated to tweet, blog and interact all they want. Being conscientious with your children and family simply doesn't have to be isolationist.

[Pam]

~35,000 folks die from the 'regular' flu each year...it's always so interesting to see how we fully accept the norm, but can be made to feel fearful so quickly when something like this comes along. As a microbiologist, I respect any flu virus - and this one does look quite contagious - but think about the number of cancer deaths due to poor air or water quality that we accept each year - I don't know, it always bugs me.

[Dan]

That's right. And we accept ~55-60k in car crash fatalities as background noise.

For those of you who've heard me natter on about quorum sensing in the abstract sense, I should point out that quorum sensing is a bacterial behavior and that Pam is the person who taught me the concept. And ever since then I've thought of civilization like a slime mold (and that's not a bad thing, btw).

We live and act in the world in response to stimulus from our environment, just like bacteria do, only instead of receiving our messages via chemical signals, we tend to receive them via media -- particularly mass media. The point of this post is to encourage people to participate in that media ecosystem in a deliberate and useful way.

Part of that is understanding fear, and the way our brains are hardwired to prioritize threat messages. We pay attention to threats, and since mass media is in the business of renting out our attention to advertisers, our mass media has a pro-threat bias.

I watched cable news this morning, and even though there was some good flu information in the segments, the promos -- with dramatic music and ominous montages -- were ALL designed to convey the message that we're under attack and you'd better stay right here if you want to live.

Twitter, being the latest whipping boy of the MSM, is being criticized as a channel for misinformation. I'm more interested in its ability to act as a collective immune system to mass-media fear messages.