Fantasy Mashup

Old predictions, trends

2004 Predictions

NFC
North
Vikings: 12-4 predicted, 8-8 actual, -4 difference, finish 2nd
Packers; 9-7 predicted, 10-6 actual, +1 difference, finish 1st
Bears: 7-9 predicted, 5-11 actual, -2 difference, finish 4th
Lions: 6-10 predicted, 6-10 actual, HIT, finish 3rd

South
Panthers: 9-7 predicted, 7-9 actual, -2 difference, finish 3rd
Saints: 9-7 predicted, 8-8 actual, -1 difference, finish 2nd
Falcons: 7-9 predicted, 11-5 actual, +4 difference, finish 1st
Bucs: 6-10 predicted, 5-11 actual, -1 difference, finish 4th HIT

East (yes)
Eagles: 12-4 predicted, 13-3 actual, +1 difference, finish 1st HIT
Cowboys: 8-8 predicted, 6-10 actual, -2 difference, finish tie 2nd
Redskins: 7-9 predicted, 6-10 actual, -1 difference, finish tie 2nd
Giants: 5-11 predicted, 6-10 actual, +1 difference, finish tie 2nd

West (yes)
Seahawks: 12-4 predicted, 9-7 actual, -3 difference, finish 1st HIT
Rams: 6-10 predicted, 8-8 actual, +2 difference, finish 2nd HIT
Arizona: 4-12 predicted, 6-10 actual, +2 difference, finish 3rd HIT
49ers: 4-12 predicted, 2-14 actual, -2 difference, finish 4th HIT

AFC
North
Ravens: 10-6 predicted, 9-7 actual, -1 difference, finish 2nd
Bengals: 10-6 predicted, 8-8 actual, -2 difference, finish 3rd
Steelers: 7-9 predicted, 15-1 actual, +8 difference, finish 1st
Browns: 4-12 predicted, 4-12 actual, HIT, finish 4th HIT

South
Titans: 10-6 predicted, 5-11 actual, -5 difference, finish 4th
Colts: 10-6 predicted, 12-4 actual, +2 difference, finish 1st
Jaguars: 9-7 predicted, 9-7 actual, HIT, finish 2nd
Houston: 8-8 predicted, 7-9 actual, -1 difference, finish 3rd

East
Jets: 11-5 predicted, 10-6 actual, -1 difference, finish 2nd
Patriots: 10-6 predicted, 14-2 actual, +4 difference, finish 1st
Bills: 6-10 predicted, 9-7 actual, +3 difference, finish 3rd
Dolphins: 3-13 predicted, 4-12 actual, +1 difference, finish 4th HIT

West
Chiefs: 10-6 predicted, 7-9 actual, -3 difference, finish 3rd
Raiders: 8-8 predicted, 5-11 actual, -3 difference, finish 4th
Broncos: 7-9 predicted, 10-6 actual, +3 difference, finish 2nd
Chargers: 2-14 predicted, 12-4 actual, +10 difference, finish 1st

Findings:

1. My average prediction was 2.97 games off, which is to say that my margin of error is roughly 19 percent across a 16-game schedule.
2. Thirteen of my 32 record predictions (40 percent) were within one game of the actual results. Only three were hits.
3. I tended to over-estimate performances. Of the 29 team records that were incorrectly predicted, I projecting extra wins for 16 of them. Despite this optimism, when I missed I missed big, actually registering an under-over ratio of +8 games.
4. I was terrible at picking division winners, picking only two of eight (25 percent) correctly. I was much better at picking 4th-place teams, getting that right in five of the eight divisions.
   
5. I was not good at predicting whether teams would finish with winning or losing records: If you count a hit as a match between a prediction of a winning or a losing season and the actual outcome, I got just 18 (56 percent) correct, just slightly ahead of random chance.
6. I seriously underestimate the performance of eventual division winners, who are about 3.4 games better than I thought they'd be.
7. My predicted division winners are predictably over estimated in terms of wins, requiring an average adjustment of -2.25 games.

Now let's compare that to how I did in 2005...

Steve Smith is dead to me

Actually, I'm just kidding in that headline: Steve Smith is a great player, but I just traded him away in The Manly Football League (a 16-year-old, no-yardage, basic-scoring league) for Javon Walker, Rex Grossman and a 3rd round pick. Everybody says I'm a retard.

But am I?

In the first place, it's all about the wide receivers, and I'm gambling that the difference between Walker's value and production and Smith's will be less than the value of a 3rd round draft choice. Right now, Smith is back strong and looking like the best wideout in the NFL. In two games since returning from his second hamstring injury of the off-season, Smith has produced 17 catches for 199 yards and touchdown. That's great.

Walker, on the other hand, has produced just 11 catches and two scores over three games -- but he's averaging 22.7 yards per reception. Beyond that, one of those games came against an excellent pass defending team (Kansas City) and he's only beginning to get into a rhythm with QB Jake Plummer. He's down on most boards because he lost a year to an ACL, but I suspect he'll put up respectable numbers and finish among the Top 10 in receiving touchdowns. Even if Smith matches his 2005 output (12 TDs), will it be that much more than Walker? Remember, Javon scored 12 times in 2004.

And then there's Grossman. Nobody trusts that a Bears QB can be a fantasy threat, but I remember the last time OC Ron Turner was on the staff in Chi-town: 1995, when Erik Kramer threw for 29 touchdowns and had two 1,000-yard receivers. Grossman has better tools, a better supporting cast and the easiest schedule on the planet. On Aug. 1 I predicted he would throw 20 touchdowns this season, but it may be time for me to upgrade that prediction a bit. Grossman has more touchdown passes this season than Peyton Manning, and while I don't expect that to hold, in this Turner offense he's entirely capable of tallying more than 25 scores.

So, was I smart, or was I stuped?

Week 5 NFL power rankings

1. Indianapolis Colts, 4-0 (Last week: No. 1): If you didn't get to see it, try to catch a replay of the 4th quarter of the Colts-Jets game. On the road, facing off with an aroused, angry New York team, Peyton Manning led his Colts on two late drives to reclaim the lead, then finished it off by bulling his way over the goal line. Everybody runs on these guys right now, because their interior line is nicked up. They're not a complete team, but they don't need to be.

2. Chicago Bears, 4-0 (Last week, No. 3): The Bears beat the defending NFC Champs 37-6, and the game was never that close. That's what we call a "statement game." Madden started the broadcast talking about Rex Grossman in "show-me" terms and wound up comparing Rex to his boyfriend, Brett Favre. DT Tommie Harris is making a case for Defensive Player of the Year through the first month of the season.

3. Baltimore Ravens, 4-0 (Last week, No. 15): McNair's game-winning drive was big-time football. They get a big boost in the intangibles.

4. San Diego Chargers, 2-1, (Last week, No. 6): The Bolts outplayed the Ravens, but their kicker really let them down.

5. Seattle Seahawks, 3-1 (Last week, No.3): That one's going to leave a mark -- a cleat-shaped mark that looks like Chicago DT Tommie Harris' foot on Matt Hasselbeck's rump. The Seahawks get a bye-week to adjust, but here's the good news: They don't have to play the Bears again this year. In the regular season, anyway.

 

2. Chicago Bears, 4-0 (Last week, No. 3): The Bears beat the defending NFC Champs 37-6, and the game was never that close. That's what we call a "statement game." Madden started the broadcast talking about Rex Grossman in "show-me" terms and wound up comparing Rex to his boyfriend, Brett Favre. DT Tommie Harris is making a case for Defensive Player of the Year through the first month of the season.

3. Baltimore Ravens, 4-0 (Last week, No. 15): McNair's game-winning drive was big-time football. They get a big boost in the intangibles.

4. San Diego Chargers, 2-1, (Last week, No. 6): The Bolts outplayed the Ravens, but their kicker really let them down.

5. Seattle Seahawks, 3-1 (Last week, No.3): That one's going to leave a mark -- a cleat-shaped mark that looks like Chicago DT Tommie Harris' foot on Matt Hasselbeck's rump. The Seahawks get a bye-week to adjust, but here's the good news: They don't have to play the Bears again this year. In the regular season, anyway.

2. Chicago Bears, 4-0 (Last week, No. 3): The Bears beat the defending NFC Champs 37-6, and the game was never that close. That's what we call a "statement game." Madden started the broadcast talking about Rex Grossman in "show-me" terms and wound up comparing Rex to his boyfriend, Brett Favre. DT Tommie Harris is making a case for Defensive Player of the Year through the first month of the season.

3. Baltimore Ravens, 4-0 (Last week, No. 15): McNair's game-winning drive was big-time football. They get a big boost in the intangibles.

4. San Diego Chargers, 2-1, (Last week, No. 6): The Bolts outplayed the Ravens, but their kicker really let them down.

5. Seattle Seahawks, 3-1 (Last week, No.3): That one's going to leave a mark -- a cleat-shaped mark that looks like Chicago DT Tommie Harris' foot on Matt Hasselbeck's rump. The Seahawks get a bye-week to adjust, but here's the good news: They don't have to play the Bears again this year. In the regular season, anyway.