This isn't a math-geek site (on average, only 3.59 percent of our waking hours -- or roughly 37 minutes per day, with a margin of error of 5 percent -- are devoted to doing math-related tasks), so we don't typically get all freaky with the statistical stuff.
That said, statistics are the foundation of most fantasy analysis, since the outcomes of our games are based solely on the numbers produced in NFL games, not the non-quantifiable qualities of actual NFL players. We still believe foremost in the human factor, but we're always on the hunt for mathematical insights that give us an edge.
Like this one...
One of the great developments in the Internet Era has been the availability of free mock drafting and mock draft results (we've used Ant Sports for our draft warm-ups for years). While each draft is different and breaking news can dramatically change where players fall, we find that Average Draft Position (ADP) is essential homework for fantasy players. It tells you where players are most likely to be valued in your format, helping you plot a personal draft strategy that truly accounts for available talent in the later rounds.
But this preseason, we're going to be focused on the Standard Deviation scores for players in Ant Sports drafts. Reason? Standard Deviation is a measure of agreement. Studying it tells us which NFL players represent the biggest question marks for fantasy owners. The lower the Standard Deviation, the more agreement there is among the numbers being averaged. The higher the score, the greater the uncertainty involved in producing an average.
So rather than analyze all the players out there, we're going to focus on the players who represent the big decisions. For instance: Do you really need more analysis of LaDanian Tomlinson? The numbers say you don't: He's got an ADP of 1.01 and an SD of 0.24 In fact, the top six running backs in one ADP measure all have SDs below 2.0, an indicator that there's a fairly strong consensus around the value of the first six picks in any fantasy draft (Tomlinson, Jackson, Johnson, Gore, Alexander and Westbrook). After that point, though, the standard deviation starts to fluctuate.
We'll focus on ADP/SD combinations as a way to help you spot opportunities and avoid errors. These are the big decisions of your off-season.
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