It may actually be easier to spot which players are headed for a bad season than the guys who are about to break out. Here's my list of guys to treat skeptically in 2007...
QUARTERBACKS
BUSTS
Eli Manning, Giants. Peyton's little brother simply isn't the man his older sibling is (hell, who is?), and as it becomes increasingly clear that his intangibles will never match Peyton's, his measurables are going to suffer as well. He's in the media capital of the world, and they're going to chew him up and spit him out this season, along with the entire Giants organization. Not firing Coughlin was a huge mistake, and leaving your franchise QB in the hands of certified disaster Kevin Gilbride is just insane.
Michael Vick, Falcons. He's one headline away from a season-long suspension, he's playing for a bad team that's implementing a significant offensive makeover by a coach who's entering his first NFL season, and there are a lot of people giving Mike Vick their last bit of faith. He remains the most talented athlete in the league, but you get the sense it could all go south in a hurry for this immature young star.
Vince Young, Titans. Young made huge plays in 2006 and has all the physical tools. This year he'll have to make strides as the coaching staff feeds him more of Norm Chow's offense, and the pressure will be on when Young goes through the kinds of struggles all talented young QBs face. His receiving corps is one of the worst on the planet, and the best running back on the roster is Chris Brown, who barely got off the bench in 2006. It all adds up to a frustrating campaign for the Rookie of the Year. Oh, and did I mention a little thing called THE MADDEN CURSE?
OVER-VALUED
Tony Romo, Dallas. I think Romo is going to be a good NFL quarterback, but he's going way too high in this season's mock drafts (No. 8 among QBs, picked at the bottom of the fifth, top of the sixth rounds). He's worth having, but better fantasy quarterbacks will be drafted in the 11th and 12th rounds.
RISKY
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia. He was tearing up fantasy leagues last fall before he suffered yet another season-ending injury. I like McNabb a lot as a player, but he's too good and too famous to be drafted where he would make sense in terms of his injury risk. He's worth maybe a 5th round selection, and certainly sixth, but he's off the board before the end of the fourth according to his ADP.
Marc Bulger, Rams. He's got talent and guts, but he looks like The Little Match Girl back there in the pocket. Whoever drafts him could get lucky and receive a full 16 games from him, but my faith in the Rams this season is extremely weak.
RUNNING BACKS
BUSTS
Larry Johnson, Kansas City. He's going to have a new quarterback, and it could well be the quarterback of the future, not the veteran who rallied the team last year. His once-great OL is in full-scale retreat. He still doesn't have a real wide receiver to keep defenses honest, and future HOP tight end Tony Gonzalez is showing his age. And that's the good news for LJ. He's carried 752 times in the past two seasons, the club spent the offseason trying to trade him for a 3rd round pick, and now he says he's going to hold out if he doesn't get "LT money." Is this the guy you want to draft with the No. 3 pick? Two words: TRADE DOWN.
OVER-VALUED
Willis McGahee, Baltimore. Despite the hype that surrounded his entry into the NFL, McGahee produced journeyman numbers in improving Buffalo and is now being drafted as a No. 1 RB since his arrival in declining Baltimore. He's not a good guy for your locker room, and his production is likely to be in line with more affordable RBs such as Travis Henry and Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
Clinton Portis, Washington. It's not clear what the Redskins are going to be, but all indications suggest their halfback position is going to be a group effort. That would make Portis the second RBBC player off the board (the first being Reggie Bush, who is probably overvalued but is awfully hard to knock). Eighteenth overall? Not if I'm picking.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants. Jacobs is a physical freak, a tall, punishing running with speed and acceptable foot quickness. Unfortunately for him, he also plays for the Giants, and I have zero faith in their ability to progress this season. If the team stagnates or implodes, Jacobs could be little more than a solid No. 3 in flex leagues.
RISKY
Cedric Benson, Chicago. You watch him run and you look at his supporting cast and you think, "This guy could be 1,400 yards and 17 touchdowns." Then he opens his mouth and you think, "This guy might not make it through the season without requiring therapy." There's a brooding vulnerability to Benson that has nothing to do with his physical talent, but might be his defining characteristic. Or he could be great. He's going as early as 13th overall and as late as the late fourth. I wouldn't take him earlier than the middle of the third, and even then it would be with some trepidation.
Lawrence Maroney, New England. A flashy young back in a great offensive situation gets to take up the production of the less-talented (and now retired) veteran Corey Dillon. If everything clicks, he's a superstar. But if his nagging injuries from 2006 carry over, he could be a distinct flop, and there's just no way of knowing until the regular season starts. He's generally being drafted as an early No. 2 RB, but he's going near the top of the first in some drafts. If you draft in the Top 5 and want the guy, don't take him there. Trade down and use the extra pickage to draft some insurance.
WIDE RECEIVERS
OVER-VALUED
Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis. Harrison isn't the top fantasy receiving threat on his team, much less in the NFL, but fantasy owners appear to be drafting him that way out of sheer habit. Don't pick him if Reggie Wayne is still available.
TIGHT ENDS
BUSTS
Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City. Gonzo is 31 years old. He's entering his 11th season and headed for the Hall of Fame as the greatest tight end of his era. But this season he's the one fixed star in a Kansas City offense that could be in turmoil all year. Gonzalez hasn't suffered any catastrophic injuries, but if you've been following him you know that he collects a lot of wear-and-tear, and that kind of damage tends to have a cumulative effect on finely tuned athletes. With Brodie Croyle at QB and Larry Johnson threatening a holdout, the pressure on Gonzalez could be more than his body can handle.
OVER-VALUED
Kellan Winslow, Cleveland. The Chosen One put up good numbers in 2006, but he's being drafted ahead of both Vernon Davis and Alge Crumpler. In a word? Don't.
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