How I figured this list: A lot of analysts confuse undervalued players with sleepers, so let's clear that up first. A sleeper is a player who:
- Isn't generally ranked as a legitimate fantasy starter;
- Can typically be found in the second half of a fantasy draft;
- Shows potential to become a significant fantasy contributor at some point in the upcoming season, producing numbers that will compare favorably to "consensus" starters.
(Players like San Diego's Vincent Jackson don't appear on this list because they've already been identified by most analysts as legitimate 2007 fantasy starters, thereby raising their draft status.)
On to the list...
QUARTERBACKS
Thirty-two quarterbacks start NFL games every non-bye week, meaning that there's usually an NFL starter available on your league's waiver wire. And since there are only a handful of "sure things" at the position (Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady make up my list), there's a great argument for passing on the "Top 12" quarterbacks and loading up on several interesting prospects in the mid-to-late rounds.
Reason? Because matchups, situations and health have so much to do with fantasy QB success. You could spend your first nine picks on other positions, draft three of these sleepers in rounds 10-12, and (if you play your weekly matchups wisely), still milk stud-level production out of the position by playing QBC (Quarterback-by -Committee).
I think QB is the primary position for finding starter quality talent in the late rounds. Drafting QBs late carries a risk, but the rewards are rather seductive.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. Big Ben's 2006 season was nothing short
of a train wreck. I expect that the Steelers will take a step backward
-- the team is probably entering a rebuilding mode this year -- while
Roethlisberger's statistics take a significant forward leap. Ben lacks
the GQ looks of a Tom Brady, but he's is a tough, physical playmaker
with the tools and supporting cast to put up Top 10 numbers. It's hard
to imagine him throwing for Top 5 numbers, but there's just no real
risk to drafting him. Worst-case scenario? Ben is a solid backup and spot-starter,
available late in your draft.
J.P. Losman, Buffalo. Whether or not Losman could be an NFL starter was
an open-ended question in the summer of 2006. Having knocked that one
down, this year's question about Losman is whether he can join the
upper tier of signal callers. Losman has all the physical gifts you'd
like to see, an improved offensive line, and a true No. 1 wideout in
Lee Evans. I think he'll progress again, with the Bills ridiculously
tough schedule padding his passing stats as Losman plays catchup late
in games. Twenty-five touchdowns and 3,400 yards are not outrageous
expectations -- but beware if your league subtracts points for interceptions. He could collect a few of those, too.
Rex Grossman, Chicago. The Bears' quarterback became a punchline last year for
his inconsistent performances and mental breakdowns. Lost in all that
scrutiny were these numbers: 3,200 yards and 23 touchdowns -- a Top 10
quarterback performance in most fantasy formats. Grossman's job was
never really in jeopardy last season, but he'll be under greater
pressure this year from backup Brian Griese, which adds an additional
risk in his fantasy portfolio. Still, he's an under-rated fantasy performer who added
two big weapons to the passing game in the off-season (TE Greg Olsen
and RB/WR/KR Devin Hester). If he continues to progress -- and he
should -- Grossman is actually positioned to be one of the biggest sleepers of
the season. I've ranked him below Big Ben and Losman because there's added risk that accompanies his Top 5 potential.
Alex Smith, San Francisco. Some scouts consider him an NFL journeyman
who got drafted too high. I think he's got the potential to be a Pro
Bowl quarterback in the NFC very soon.
RUNNING BACKS
Running back sleepers tend to be harder to spot than QB sleepers. I
went looking for players who have something special about them and play
for teams with the potential to showcase those talents, and I left off
guys like Michael Turner, who will be drafted much higher than a backup
should because of his value in keeper leagues.
Ladell Betts, Washington. Betts outplayed Clinton Portis in 2006, plain and simple. Portis backers noted that the star RB battled injuries all season, and they're right. But at a minimum, Betts played his way into a legit RBBC role, and with Portis looking increasing flakey as his career winds on, Betts has a chance to move from 1B to 1A. Not only is he a savvy, under-rated runner, Betts is a fine receiver. Consider him a strong No. 3 who is an injury away from playing like a capable No. 2.
Chris Brown, Tennessee. Brown isn't a great player, even though he flashes game-breaking ability. He isn't a tough, hungry runner; he lacks the durability to be an every-down back; and he plays for a team that I think is due to regress in 2007. So why is he listed here? Because Lendale White looks like a terrible bust, leaving Brown in position to get plenty of quality touches this season. He's a potential 900-yard rusher who is routinely available in the 9th and 10th rounds.
Vernand Morency, Green Bay. Rookie Brandon Jackson keeps going higher in mock drafts, but Jackson was a draft-day reach by the Packers and Morency is the more complete player. If Jackson suffers routine rookie problems, Morency becomes the Packer's No. 1A runner, a position that could easily be worth 1,000 yards and six to eight touchdowns.
*Musa Smith, Baltimore. Willis McGahee has the tools to be a legit No. 2 RB, but Smith has a special skill set that might make him hard to keep on the bench, particularly on third downs. If McGahee falls short of expectations or gets nicked up, watch out for Smith. He's a true gamebreaker. He's not worth drafting, but he'll be a great free agent pickup in September.
*Tony Hunt, Philadelphia. I'm not a Correll Buckhalter fan, and that means I keep expecting someone to replace him as the primary backup to fantasy star Brian Westbrook. Hunt looks like the kind of player who could be a consistent, journeyman RB -- and a decent change-of-pace to Westbrook's waterbug style. I see him as the No. 2 RB in Philly, with the potential to get some starts if Westbrook's famously weak ankles start acting up in December.
*Brian Leonard, St. Louis. I thought this guy was great in college, and I expect the Rams will find ways to get him on the field his rookie season. One other reason for listing him: Steven Jackson's running style. Yes, Jackson is this year's consensus No. 2 behind LT, but no running back absorbs more punishment than SJ. If Jackson misses any time in 2007, Leonard could be a golden boy.
WIDE RECEIVERS
D.J. Hackett, Seattle. Deion Branch may have the name
recognition, but Hackett was the eye-opener in 2006. Most fantasy
owners seem to expect that Branch (ADP 5.08) will be the beneficiary of
the Darrell Jackson departure, but I wouldn't be surprised to see
Hackett (ADP 9.10) put up better numbers.
Brandon Jones, Tennessee. Well, somebody has to catch the ball in Tennessee. He's lasting until the 11th round in mock drafts this summer. That's way too late.
Bernard Berrian, Chicago. Here's a young wide receiver with deep speed playing for a team that could very well open up its offense another notch in 2007. Expect Berrian to move into the primary receiver role, supplanting Muhsin Muhammad, with 1,000 yards receiving and six or seven touchdowns.
Troy Williamson, Minnesota. There isn't a single fantasy prospect in Minneapolis without a question mark this season, and Williamson's is bright red and flashing. Is this guy even an NFL receiver? Will there even be any passes for Williamson to catch with sophomore starter Tavaris Jackson at QB? Can he catch the damn ball? Williamson will be given every chance to win the starting job, and if his drops were the result of poor vision, rather than just lousy coordination, then the physically gifted Williamson is positioned for a breakout year in his third season. He's lasting past the 13th round in off-season drafts.
Matt Jones, Jacksonville. He's got size, speed, smarts and situation, but Jones has yet to demonstrate NFL toughness and durability. I think he's another 3rd year receiver on the brink of putting up starter quality numbers. Jones is an athlete, and he's entirely capable of becoming Byron Leftwich's No. 1 target... if he can stay on the field.
Devin Hester, Chicago. Hester is the biggest enigma in fantasy this season, and it's not even clear whether he'll be designated an RB or a WR in his move to the offensive side. I think he's best suited to WR, and the tape out of Chicago's minicamp was nothing short of stunning. Hester ran sharp routes, adjusted to the ball on the fly and put moves of DBs that would make their mothers cry. Chicago has a lot of offensive weapons, and it's entirely possible that Hester's production will be too inconsistent for fantasy use. But he's a great final-pick flier.
TIGHT ENDS
Many leagues no longer require them, and the drop-off from the elite tier to the second tier is so severe that it's not even worth picking sleepers at this position. If you can get Vernon Davis in a value round (seventh or lower), then draft him. Otherwise, look for players with upside in decent situations late in the draft and then play the weekly matchups off the waiver wire.
* ASTERISK INDICATES PLAYER IS AN ATTRACTIVE WAIVER-WIRE PICKUP SLEEPER, NOT A TRUE DRAFT-DAY PROSPECT.
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