Maurice Jones-Drew should be the poster-child for why we love fantasy football. There's always some undrafted (in fantasy drafts, anyway) player who explodes on the scene, upending all sorts of calculations. Fifteen touchdowns and about 1,400 combined yards later, it's up to us to classify his 2006 season and project him into his second year, and his standard deviation in mock drafts suggests that's not an easy task.
The basics: Jones-Drew is a short (under 5-7), thick running back with enormously powerful thighs and 4.4 pop. After starring at UCLA, he was drafted in the second round by the Jacksonville Jaguars as the heir apparent to Fred Taylor in 2006. Though he excelled as a kickoff returner and the oft-injured Taylor stayed healthy, Jones-Drew was too good to keep on the bench. He finished the year with 116 rushing attempts and put up his excellent stats despite having only six games in which he received more than 15 combined rushing/receiving touches.
The bright side: He's young, he's gifted, he plays for a team that runs the ball -- and the kid can clearly play (5.7 ypc in the NFL is nothing to sneeze at). He's also a natural receiver.
The dark side: He's not the most fluid back, he's short, and there are QB/WR/leadership question in Jacksonville this year. Oh, and then there's that whole RBBC issue with Taylor. Plus a long history of disappointing second-year backs. Plus potential goal-line vulture Greg Jones returns to the lineup as a hybrid HB/FB.
Keeper factors: All systems go for this guy if you kept him on your roster.
Other choices: RBs: Willis McGahee, Baltimore; Travis Henry, Denver; Edgerrin James, Arizona; Clinton Portis, Washington; Thomas Jones, Jets; Cedric Benson, Chicago; WRs: Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis; Steve Smith, Carolina; Torry Holt, St. Louis; Terrell Owens, Dallas; QB: Carson Palmer, Cincinatti.
Dan's take: Despite late-season stats that had him scoring fantasy points like a Top-5 player, Jones-Drew has gone into 2007 as a slightly undervalued player with enormous upside (he's the 17th RB in my benchmark and 21st overall, with a Standard Deviation of 5.49, going as high as the late first and as low as the late third). There are several causes (fantasy players fear RBBCs and are biased in favor of good-looking 1st round picks with big endorsement deals), but the most significant reason for caution is none of those things -- it's simply the trend toward promising RBs flopping in their sophomore season.
Honestly, I'm not worried about those things, and the more I look at
this player, the more I like him. He's a driven young man who doesn't
seem to bring much baggage with him -- no attitude problems, no
character problems, no injuries of note. He runs like a bowling ball
bouncing down a mountainside, which means he's
going to dish out as much punishment as he receives, and he's going to get places quickly.
Fred Taylor is everything Jones-Drew isn't -- a first-round throughbred with size, power and elusiveness.When Taylor came into the league he looked like he might become one of the all-time greats. Today he's a 31-year-old veteran who benefited greatly from his committee with Jones-Drew in 2006. Fantasy owners look at his 1,100 rushing yards and downgrade Jones-Drew, assuming that Taylor will continue as option 1A in Jacksonville's rushing attack.
But I'm not so sure. There are times when Jones-Drew runs with a decisive fury that lifts the team. Taylor has finally learned how to stay relatively healthy (he got 15 starts last year), but the cost of that discretion is a tentative, savvy running style that is efficient but hardly inspiring. Whatever the starting rotation, I just find it hard to believe that Jones-Drew will wind up as the change-of-pace/third-down back. I'm predicting the Jones-Drew/Taylor roles from 2006 will be reversed before the end of October.
As a two-down back who gets roughly 15-25 touches a game, Mojo has the skills to put up stellar numbers. Think 1,500 combined yards, plus double-digit touchdowns. Situations and other players could certainly chip away at those figures, but let's be clear: Jones-Drew is a back who will score fantasy points and could put up elite RB statistics. Not bad for a player you can pick up in the late second.
There are going to be fantasy owners who draft Tomlinson No. 1 and come back and find Jones-Drew waiting for them at No. 24, and these are going to be some very, very happy people in 2007. I rank Mojo ahead of Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James and Clinton Portis, all of whom are being drafted ahead, but also slightly higher than Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. His keeper potential makes him a better choice than Travis Henry in leagues that protect players during the offseason. It's tough to take him ahead of Carson Palmer, though.
If you're alert, you'll let Jones-Drew come to you. The first weak spot in this draft occurs between the 9th and 20th picks, with a bunch of RB slop going too high and only one non-RB player worth a no-brainer pick (Peyton Manning). Which means: If you're sitting somewhere in that goo, trade down and nail Jones-Drew/Travis Henry/Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson in the early 20s. You'll wind up with a better player than James, McGahee or Portis, plus a little extra juice for later.
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