Thomas Jones was a former first-round bust until he showed up in Chicago three years ago. Today, 4,212 combined yards later, Jones is a Super Bowl veteran with a revived career. The trade that brought him to the Jets could make him the focal point of the New York offense and the immediate heir-apparent to the Curtis Martin era... but the questions that surround him give Jones only scatter-shot value in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.
The basics: Jones is a tough, veteran runner with decent speed, good work ethic and impressive clubhouse presence. Despite his age (29 when the season starts), Jones has had relatively few NFL carries and should have plenty left in the tank for 2007-08. In 2006, Jones rushed for 1,200 yards despite sharing the position with former No. 4 pick overall Cedric Benson.
The bright side: Jones is a smart player and a leader who should fit in well with Eric Mangini's
band of over-achievers. He'll be the clear No. 1 on a team with
competent quarterbacking, a combination of situations that Jones has
never experienced (Jones shared the ball in both Arizona and Tampa, and
was in an RBBC in Chicago in 2006; in 2004-05 he was the clear No. 1,
but the Bears suffered through horrendous QB play that allowed defenses
to load up to stop Jones). The Jets offense, which has been designed
around Chad Pennington's unique style of play, should benefit
Jones as well -- particularly as a check-down receiver. The Jets OL is
packed with developing young talent.
The dark side: Not once in his career has Jones ever scored more than nine touchdowns. Though he flashed ability as a receiver in 2004, he has not been a consistent pass-catching threat out of the backfield. His running skills are above-average, but his big-play production declined in 2006 and he no longer appears to be the game-breaking threat he was in 2004-05. Young Leon Washington will push for playing time.
Keeper factors: Jones is a low-mileage veteran who could be a consideration for at least one more off-season, but he's no longer a long-term keeper prospect.
Other choices: RBs: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville; Cedric Benson, Chicago. QBs: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati; Tom Brady, New England. WRs: Torry Holt, St. Louis; Terrell Owens, Dallas; Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona; Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis; Roy Williams, Detroit. TEs: Antonio Gates.
Dan's take: Jones is best viewed as a low-risk No. 2 RB at the very end of the second round, and he's a good fit for someone who drafted early in Round 1 and has another pick coming up at the top of Round 3. The optimistic take on Jones would be a solid 1,400 combined yards and 11 touchdowns, with a downside of 1,100 and six scores -- decent numbers, but not the kind of production that would inspire me to pass on QB Carson Palmer, WR Reggie Wayne or TE Antonio Gates (in TE-required leagues).
Drafting Jones near the top of the second, where younger backs with greater keeper potential can be found, is probably a reach, and the late second and early third are great value spots for WRs. But if you take the risk on him slipping into the middle of the third (as he has in some drafts) and he falls to you, you thank the Football Gods and take him.
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