OK, so maybe "bust" is the wrong word for some of these guys. But here are some drafting situations you need to watch carefully this weekend:
QUARTERBACKS
I already warned you about Michael Vick. But what about the other guys?
Vince Young (6.05): Young QB, weak RB corps, no experienced WRs to help him out, and his picture's on the cover of Madden 2008. Go ahead: Draft him, punk. It's your funeral.
Eli Manning (9.02): The rest of the world is getting this message, and with Manning's formerly inflated ADP down in QB Platoon territory, it's hard to call him a bust. The reason I mention him is that he's in a position to kind of implode in the New York media, and that could be ugly. On the one hand, Tiki Barber's televised comments were a good thing for Manning, because it gave him some starch and caused his teammates to rally around him. I expect him to start the season fairly strong. The issue? The situation in New York is bad, with Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride acting as the "adults" that Eli's supposed to be serving. Think about that. Jesus, the kid is just SCREWED.
RUNNING BACKS
Larry Johnson (1.03): I don't think he's a bust -- I just think that one or more players below him on draft day will produce better numbers. I'm keeping my previous advice: If you've got the third pick and you can get a decent trade-down for it (optimal would be picks 5-to-7 in the first, plus equalizers), do it. Everything in Kansas City feels suspect this summer.
Willis McGahee (2.02): His ADP has dropped about four or five slots since the beginning of the month, which means he's now dropped behind Peyton Manning and Laurence Maroney on most boards. That's about right. The thing to watch for is that old nemesis: The Fantasy Mag Cheat Sheet. Some asshole in your league is going to pick him in the Top 10 because that's where he was ranked in May or June. Don't be that asshole.
Ronnie Brown (2.04): He's a good, not great player, in a rotten, not just bad, situation. A lousy offensive line and an aging QB. You're much better off taking Maurice Jones-Drew or Cedric Benson at this spot, and both are usually available.
Edgerrin James (2.08): It's not that I'm all that high on Cedric Benson, but the fact that James is going four slots ahead of him is just a bit nutty. There are better options in the middle of the second.
Clinton Portis (2.12): His ADP is falling, but not fast enough to match reality. He's supposed to be back for the opener, but he's an RBBC player on a team with issues.
Brandon Jacobs (3.06): If the Giants get him lots and lots of goal-line plunges, Jacobs will be great. That's a big if. It wouldn't surprise me if Ahman Green or Lamont Jordan outscored Jacobs in 2007.
Marshawn Lynch (3.11): A popular player with keeper leaguers, Lynch will probably be an OK pro. But there's no doubt that the entire Buffalo running game is struggling right now, and he'll probably be in an RBBC with thunder-plodder Anthony Thomas now. The third round is just too early.
Brandon Jackson (7.01): Not an awful position for a rookie starter, but something about the Green Bay RB situation seems fundamentally bogus. I suspect the start will go to whichever back pass-blocks best for Favre.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The one guy I want to really pick on is Plaxico Burress (5.03). He's going as a top No. 2 WR, and that's a mistake. Better players will be drafted two rounds later.
TIGHT ENDS
Tony Gonzales (6.01): Again, more bad vibes around a team, more prospects with good vibes available later. Gonzo has been a great pro for 13 years. This one isn't going to be his most fondly remembered one. My advice? Take Vernon Davis instead.
Alge Crumpler (8.10): His star has fallen along with Michael Vick's, but this is just a reminder to everyone out there. If you're drafting with a cheat sheat from an early summer fantasy mag, don't screw up and draft Crumpler early. He's been a special tight end so long as Vick was under center, but now he's just another face in a crowded room.
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