Ranks based on recent Average Draft Position results...
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego. His numbers could go down by a third and LT would still be the No. 1 player in fantasy. That's just sick.
2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis. He deserves this ranking, but he's nowhere close to Tomlinson and probably won't produce like last year's No. 2.
3. Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City. I expect a big decline here: Kansas City is rebuilding, the O-line is cheesecloth, the QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle, and LJ, coming off another punishing year, is holding out of training camp. He's already dropping in recent expert drafts and that trend could continue.
4. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco. The situation is great, the player had a breakout year in 2006 ... and something about this scares me. Gore is playing on rebuilt bionic knees and just broke his hand, which means he'll enter September a little rusty. Again, not specific -- just a bad feeling.
5. Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle. If I can get him at six, seven or eight, I'd feel pretty good about the value. Alexander is in decline, but he can still be good in spurts, and he's reported to camp in great shape.
6. Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis. He's got the tools, plays in a great offense, and should get the dome boost. Still, I'm tempering my enthusiasm just a bit because I think the Colts will struggle a little in 2007
7. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia. The knock on Westbrook is durability, but I like his chances of producing Top 5 RB numbers. If you're in a PPC league, he's already Top 3 on your board.
8. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh. I never like to hear about any kind of nagging injury in training camp, and Parker's got one. Still, I consider him a good risk.
9. Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati. Rudi's been the most consistent player in fantasy for the past three seasons. This is the year his numbers dip. Expect more of a contribution from Bengals rookie Kenny Irons, with Johnson becoming a member of an RBBC. Losing G Eric Steinbach hurts him a lot.
10. Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans. A great talent who should be miles ahead of his early rookie season, yes. But a breakout fantasy start in Year 2? No. This is an RBBC. Bush is hyper valuable in PPC leagues, but other than that, he's a serviceable No. 2.
11. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis. Expect the same as last year.
12. Travis Henry, RB, Denver. Free agents typically disappoint. Henry won't. He'll be a star for the first time since his third year in Buffalo.
13. Laurence Maroney, RB, New England. Maroney has franchise-back skills but enormous durability questions. The Patriots seem to understand how to use him, though, and that will be key. If they use him as a pound-the-ground sustaining runner, a la Corey Dillon, he'll fall apart. If they use him properly, look out.
14. Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore. I'm on the record as saying McGahee will be a September all-star and a November also-ran.
15. Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami. No offensive line, no offense. The most over-rated player of 2007.
16. Steve Smith, WR, Carolina. He should rebound nicely from last year's disappointment, but he won't be the No. 1 player at his position.
17. Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati. That's because Ocho Cinco will be the No. 1 WR.
18. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington. A flop in the making. Avoid him like bad clams.
19. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville. The Jaguars will post two 1,000-yard runners this year, and Jones-Drew will be goal-line option No. 1 until FB/HB Greg Jones demonstrates otherwise.
20. Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona. Unless Russ Grimm plans to suit up instead of just coach, I'm skeptical of the Cardinals' running game.
21. Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis. He's steady and great with zero flash.
22. Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis. He regressed in 2006, but I'm cautiously optimistic that arthroscopy and a second year in the new system will be what he needs. Should match last year's stats.
23. Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets. Jones has never scored more than 9 TDs in a season. Good player, but a disappointment for fantasy owners. If you can live with a 1,200-yard, 10-TD ceiling, then Jones is a great option.
24. Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago. The Bears will be explosive this year, but Benson could go either way. He's a personality time-bomb with durability issues, but there is no other unproven RB in 2007 with this mixture of top-drawer skills and great team situation. He should score like a No. 1 fantasy back this year.
25. Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas. As much as I dislike the man, he should be better than OK this season... until he gets looney again.
26. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis. Great upside, minimal risk.
27. Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati. Could easily outscore Manning this year.
28. Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants. The team lost Tiki and the O-line took a hit, so color me highly skeptical. I think the Giants are in retrograde and made a mistake by bringing Coughlin back for one more try.
29. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona. Until the Cardinals show their true 2007 colors, all their players come with question marks. Consider him one of a large number of WRs who will flash potential but score in the middle of the No.2-No. 3 WR bell curve.
30. Roy Williams, WR, Detroit. Williams is a great talent but he prepares poorly. He should have good season, but he'll be losing out to Calvin Johnson in increments.
31. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego. He's so far above the other TEs he might as well be his own position..
32. Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona. I'm biased toward players who score touchdowns, and Boldin never has. I don't see that changing.
33. Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa. There's reason to be optimistic about the Bucs' line again, but I'm down on their whole program. Williams could be a low-end No. 2, but I'd be happier if he was my RB depth.
34. Tom Brady, QB, New England. I've got him ranked third on my QB board because his he had nothing going for him last year and still put up decent numbers. The risk associated with Brady is practically nil, and the weapons they've assembled around him are impressive. So yeah, take him.
35. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston. Fantasy Nation has been anticipating his breakout season since 2004, and the wait goes on. I expect slight statistical improvement but not the full realization of his Top 3 potential.
36. Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans. A slight decline is likely, but he'll still score at a reliable No. 2 RB level.
37. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans. Some people have him at No. 3, but I want a second year of success in New Orleans before I invest a third or fourth rounder in a smallish-QB with an injury history.
38. TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati. Solid floor, uninspiring ceiling. I like No. 1 WRs with a little more potential, even if there's some risk involved.
39. Javon Walker, WR, Denver. I feel real good about Walker. Watch him outscore Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Boldin, Andre Johnson and Houshmandzadeh.
40. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo. The Bills have a killer schedule and a weakened defense. That's not a great situation for a rookie RB in a mini-RBBC. He's worth a pick, but recognize that he's a developmental prospect, not a first-year stud.
41. Randy Moss, WR, New England. I don't want anything to do with him. And let's not forget that he's in an WR committee in Foxboro, too.
42. Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans. He'll regress a bit this year now that he's the clear No. 1 on opening day.
43. Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis. His blindside protector is aging and declining, and Bulger looks about as robust as a Christmas tree ornament.
44. Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay. The Brett Favre situation is so bad I'm avoiding the Packers just on principle. Oh, and Driver's injured.
45. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina. He'll benefit from a healthy offensive line and should get better in his second season. But he's still an RBBC guy.
46. Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo. The same things that hurt Lynch help Evans and QB JP Losman. Bad defense and tough opponents mean plenty of passes, and Evans is a steal this late.
47. Ahman Green, RB, Houston. Old guy, bad team, no offensive line. Do the math.
48. Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia. It's the injuries, pure and simple. I won't draft him this high no matter how good he is.
49. Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland. The improving offensive line and the Quinn holdout both improve Lewis' chances of surprising a lot of fantasy players this year. At the 49th pick you're looking at a No. 3 RB, and that's actually appropriate for Lewis at this stage. Which means if you manage your expectations and treat him as a situational backup instead of full-time starter, you can be happy with him.
50. Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Giants. The Giants are going to struggle, and Burress doesn't strike me as the kind of guy I want to rely on when things get tough.
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