I've been tracking sleepers and busts in a variety of ways over the past month, but with the final round of drafts upon us, here's a look at under-valued players based on what you can expect from them, where you can find them, and what kind of use they might have. Remember: the point of identifying sleepers isn't that you strike it rich (although that does happen); it's really that you're getting equivalent production at one position that allows you to draft a difference-maker at another position earlier.
QUARTERBACKS
As our regular readers know, I'm the originator of the QB Platoon Theory, which suggests that a thoughtful rotation of three guys you can get after Round 7 will produce overall QB scoring in line with a single high-quality starter. The five quarterbacks on this list all fall into that platoon-QB category, but here's something to remember: When Tony Romo (ADP in the late 5th round) dropped into the middle of the 7th, I took him; When Jon Kitna inexplicably fell past the 9th round, I traded up to draft him early in the 10th. Never let a basic plan blind you to opportunity.
8th - 10th rounders
Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben is generally getting drafted as a backup by owners who took someone like Donovan McNabb in the 4th or 5th. He doesn't have a splashy reputation, but I think most people in fantasy see him as a solid backup with limited downside. I actually think he's got the stuff to produce like a legit fantasy starter in 2007, although I'm happier with him in a QB platoon.
Alex Smith: This is why ADP can be deceiving. Smith typically goes in the 10th round, but he was still there when I made my final pick of the draft in Round 11 (I filled my roster three rounds early). I expect good things from him this season, but I recognize that he's going to be inconsistent. The problem I have with Smith is that he's getting drafted ahead of players like Grossman and Schaub, which makes him a questionable choice. One upside? He'll score some on the ground, too.
11th and down
Rex Grossman: When I picked him in Round 10 (I didn't want to take a chance of waiting for his ADP, which should tell you something about what I think about his fantasy prospects) the guy next to me said "I can't believe he got drafted!" Which is the great thing about Grossman from a fantasy standpoint: He's such a media whipping boy that weak fantasy owners avoid him -- despite the fact that he had a productive 2006 fantasy season (8th overall in formats that don't penalize for interceptions) and shows signs that he'll progress in 2007. Grossman will almost certainly produce at a level that would make him a legitimate low-end fantasy starter, and if you're nabbing your starting QB in the 11th round, you've had 10 rounds to really beef up elsewhere. Just waiting on Grossman until the 11th could mean nabbing sleeper talent like WR Santonio Holmes in the 10th, or Joey Galloway in the 9th.
Matt Schaub: My impression of this guy only improves. I expect we'll see him produce on an Alex Smith kind of level -- maybe 20 TDs, with more than 3,000 yards passing -- but the good news is that he'll be cheaper.
JP Losman: I'm surprised at how far Losman has been falling in drafts this summer. He wasn't even picked in the MFL (although that was quickly remedied with a waiver-wire pickup), and even though his ADP is similar to Grossman's he's just a lower profile player who can be overlooked because he isn't a media topic. I like his chances in 2007, but I think his production will be on par with Smith and Schaub.
RUNNING BACKS
I'm going to avoid writing about the top running backs here, simply because there's so much out there. Needless to say, if your league requires two RBs each week, you've likely acquired a couple of them by the end of the 4th round. Instead, I'm going to talk about guys who should be on your list as No. 3s, plus some players who'll be worth a roster spot as a No. 4 with serious upside.
5th to 6th rounders
Adrian Peterson (Minn.): This probably won't hold true in keeper leagues, where A.D. tends to go in the 3rd or 4th rounds, but the Vikings rookie is a steal as a No. 3 RB. Yes, I acknowledge some risk here -- he could wind up as the junior man in a low-scoring RBBC -- but I think his upside makes him well worth the risk. All too often we let situation dictate a player's draft position, but what do you say about a rookie with this kind of rare talent? If he stays healthy and plays the way he's capable, Peterson is one of the few players with an ADP below the 4th round with the potential to put up No. 1 numbers. And here's the really sick part: He's falling in a position that's perfect for owners who pick first in a 12-team league. If your first pick is LT and your 5th pick is A.D., you're going to be better than OK.
Ahman Green: Green's ADP is virtually tied with Peterson, and you can make an argument that Green is the better one-season choice. I'm not buying that. In fact, I didn't really start paying attention to his value until he almost dropped out of the 7th round in the MFL draft last week. Green in the 4th seemed a stretch. Green in the 6th? Now you're talking. I think if you're looking for a No. 3 who'll produce like a solid No. 2 and you're willing to gamble on him, Green's a good candidate.
Jamal Lewis: Another old guy makes my list, but without a lot of enthusiasm. He's got an ADP in the middle of the 5th, and that's probably about right. But I've got one player on my board I think will score at least as well as Lewis, and he's not getting drafted until late in the 7th (Lamont Jordan). This is a solid No. 3 who will be a reliable backup and fill-in, but don't draft him expecting more, and don't panic on filling the slot in the 5th if Jordan, DeShaun Foster, Fred Taylor and Ladell Betts are still available.
7th and down
Ladell Betts: If you can get him in the mid-to-late 7th, consider it a fair deal. If you've thinking about buying him earlier -- well, just don't. Betts went in the bottom of the 5th last week, and that's plain silly. It's not that I think he'll be less productive than his running mate, the over-valued Clinton Portis; rather, I'm concerned that Washington backs as a group could underwhelm this year. Don't take him if Lamont Jordan is available, unless you've got the picks to get both.
Lamont Jordan: This might wind up being one of the best opportunities on this year's board. Jordan's value is depressed because of fantasy psychology: He was over-hyped in 2006 and the Raiders sucked, so that's two strikes against him coming into 2007. But the Raiders are going to be more competent this year, and Jordan looks aggressive and strong again. Even when Domanic Rhodes returns from his suspension, expect Jordan to play and produce like a No. 2 RB. Six or seven TDs and 1,100 yards are not unrealistic for him, and that's great for a player who is going to be available in the 7th round of most drafts.
Fred Taylor: I passed on Ahman Green last week in the 7th round to take the plummeting Tony Romo, but I did so with Jordan and Taylor in mind. After trying to trade up to draft either one of them in the 8th (Jordan went with the 12th pick), Taylor wound up falling to me quite naturally in the early 9th. I don't see him as a fantasy starter, but he's still a thousand-yard rusher who can be counted on for a half-dozen scores. Again, it's not those numbers that make him so valuable -- it's that knowing I could gamble on him gave me the freedom to pick up a falling star two rounds earlier.
DeShaun Foster: So long as Foster keeps dropping into the middle of the 8th, I'll keep recommending him. He went a lot higher when I drafted in Spartanburg, SC (home to the Panthers' training camp) last week, but that was to be expected. The guys there had seen him play and practice and understood that it's Foster, not trendy pick DeAngelo Williams (ADP 4.11), who's had the better camp and preseason. You don't want to rely on him, but he's a good No. 3 and a fantastic No. 4 if you can get him that late.
Adrian Peterson (Chi.): I'm a Bears fan, so take it from me: The original Adrian Peterson is going to play in 2007, and if Cedric Benson gets hurt, he's going to play a lot. If you play in a league where handcuffs make sense, then Benson owners should handcuff Peterson. Personally I'm not much for handcuffs on draft day, but Peterson isn't an awful No. 4 prospect. He's getting drafted in the 13th round.
Tony Hunt: Never heard of him? Don't feel bad. Just remember him this way: he's Brian Westbrook's goal-line stunt double.
Brian Leonard: I can't say enough about this player, and I've been that way ever since I watched him carve up my Tar Heels last season. He's getting drafted at the end of the 14th round, which means he's just a flier for most owners. My advice? Target him, particularly if you're wondering what to do near the end of a keeper league draft.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The evolution of the flex lineup has gone a long way toward boosting the value of the WR in fantasy football, particularly if you play in a league that doesn't require a TE. These ADPs, however, are based on a "normal lineup" with a mandatory TE, so keep that in mind.
My problem with most WRs is that there are just so many of them who fall into the middle of the bell curve in terms of actual production, and it's not that unusual for a No. 3 WR on a passing team to out-score the No. 1 WR on a team with a lousy QB. Consequently, the players I've ranked here are the guys who are being drafted after the first 24 WRs, but who I think stand a decent chance of breaking out of the pack.
Vincent Jackson (7.12): I really love this guy as a prospect, even though conventional wisdom says he'll lose too many chances to LT and Antonio Gates. Well, I'm not so sure about that. I had him down the stretch in 2006 and Jackson was money. Just be prepared to take him higher than his ADP. He went with the 4th pick in the 7th in my draft last week, with me sitting at the 5th pick ready to write his name down. I think he'll produce at a strong No. 2 WR level.
Joey Galloway (8.05): No, I'm not crazy about him -- the bastard cost me a ring with a three-TD game in Week 17 back in the 1990s, and I've never forgiven him for that. But you've got to like the situation, the experience and the draft position.
Santonio Holmes (9.05): I might be over-reacting to him, but I've just noticed something in his game that makes me pay attention. He's not a burner, not a big guy, not even the No. 1 receiver on a team with a bunch of guys who are going to get the ball (Nate Washington and Cedric Wilson among them). Again, this is me promoting a guy solely because of talent. He really picked up at the end of his rookie season and he seems like he's ahead of the development curve. If his chemistry with Roethlisberger is as real as it looks, I think you'll see Holmes producing numbers that will rival Hines Ward's -- and Ward is the 18th WR overall.
Devin Hester (14.11): This second-year star is everybody's Mr. Irrelevant. "I don't know how he'll do, but I'll take him with my last pick if he's there." Well, there's a reason for that: Hester is a rare talent with the ball in his hands, and he shocked Bears' camp observers with his rapid progress in learning the wide receiver position. Expect the Bears to target him at least five times a game. Combine that production with his kick return scores and you're looking at four to seven touchdowns and some yardage. If you can get that from your final pick, you're feeling pretty good about it. It's the prospect of the return scores that really elevates him.
Bobby Wade (NOT DRAFTED): Write this one down: Bobby Wade is going to get at least 70 catches and 750 yards in 2007, along with the occasional random touchdown. Great stats? Nope. But that's a consistent three or four points per game from your No. 4 WR, and that makes him a nice backup. I remember him from his early years in Chicago, when he was an exciting prospect who lost his roster spot due to a mental meltdown month in 2004 when he simply couldn't field a punt cleanly. After two forgettable years in Tennessee, Wade has resurfaced in Minnesota as Tarvaris Jackson's only reliable veteran pass-catcher. He's small and lacks deep speed, but Wade is sneaky-quick with great open-field moves, and he's become adept at working seams and running sharp routes. Consider him a solid No. 3 who can be had for free, basically.
Jacoby Jones (NOT DRAFTED): OK, I'm not buying the "next Marques Colston: hype, but like Colston, Jones is an unheralded rookie from a small school who earned a starting job in training camp. The Texans are -- dare I say it? -- poised to improve, and Jones should benefit. He's a good player for dynasty league owners to stash away, and he might even produce some big weeks. But consider him a true No. 4 prospect, not an undervalued No. 3 WR.
TIGHT ENDS
If you play in a tight-end optional league, there's only one TE who even qualifies as a sure-thing as a No. 2 receiver (Antonio Gates, who has the potential to score like a low No. 1). Beyond that, most of the top tight ends are borderline No. 2-No. 3s.
Things really get interesting, though, when you play with a mandatory TE slot. Reason: Top TEs are so rare that acquiring one is almost an unfair advantage on the rest of the league. No TE scored 10 or more TDs in 2006; only three scored more than six. But 13 players scored between six and four touchdowns. In other words, there's the top, and then there's everybody else.
The key to drafting tight ends in TE-mandatory leagues? Either target a guy you really think could break the bank (Gates goes in the 3rd round, other top prospects typically in the 6th) or wait to see whether some player with potential drops to the end of the draft. Then cross your fingers. But whatever you do, don't go drafting the fifth or sixth tight end in the 8th or 9th round. It just doesn't make sense.
The usual suspects: Gates (3.07); Tony Gonzalez (6.01); Todd Heap (6.01); Jeremy Shockey (6.10); Vernon Davis (6.11); Kellen Winslow (7.09); Chris Cooley (7.10); Jason Witten (8.07).
And my pick from this group?
Vernon Davis: Not only was this my pick in Round 5 last week, it was the first pick of the draft to piss somebody off. Apparently there were at least three owners waiting to nab Davis in the 6th, a round where I didn't have a pick, forcing me to take him higher than his ADP indicated. By the way, Davis's draft position has been rising all month, and he's currently the fantasy coverboy at CBS Sportsline, which has a way of boosting a player's ADP when the feature treatment takes place on the eve of your draft. Bear that in mind if you want him and plan on taking him in the 5th if you want to be sure of getting him.
Why Davis? Because of talent, health and situation. No player at his position has Davis' raw physical talent (he famously ran a 4.36 at the 2006 Combine); he's healthy again; he played well down the stretch (boosting Janet to her league's championship game); the 49ers are improved; and Davis is in line to be Alex Smith's No. 1 receiver, much like the situation that benefits Gates in San Diego and helped Alge Crumpler in Atlanta for the past five years. I think he's a lock for 700 yards and six TDs, but I drafted him high because his ceiling looks like 1,000 yards and 10 scores.
And the other guys? Well, bad vibes in Kansas City are keeping me away from Gonzo, and both Heap and Shockey strike me as known commodities at this point in their careers. Sure, either could post an anomalous 10-TD year, but the most likely outcome is that they'll be about what they've always been. That's nice, but it won't give you a competitive advantage.
Kellen Winslow is actually an interesting prospect (he led all TEs in catches last year with 89), but I stay away from him on principle. The guy I like better is Chris Cooley, who is just a bit cheaper than Winslow, without being such a flaming asshole. Still, the odds are that when a dime will probably cover the spread between TE No. 4 and TE No. 17. Which means that playing weekly TE matchups off the waiver wire becomes much more important than drafting one average TE.
There are also a couple of late guys I want to talk about, particularly if you're drafting a second TE or waiting to the bitter end to pick your starter. The first one is Owen Daniels of the Texans (13.09). He was a waiver-wire find in 2006 and I saw something in the preseason this year that made me take note: In Week 2 or 3, Owen took a vicious hit from a linebacker -- I'm talking NFL Films quality here, folks -- and held on to the ball.
But what made it really stand out was what happened after the catch. The linebacker was bouncing around celebrating and roaring about his big hit, but Daniels popped up, jawing with the nearest defender, then seeking out the celebrating linebacker for an in-your-face reminder. His obvious message? You're going to have to be tougher than that, you moron, because I STILL CAUGHT THE DAMN BALL! That's the spirit you like to see in your tight end. Oh, and on the next play? They threw it right back to Daniels, for another catch, in just about the same spot.
A player like that could be special.
The second late guy to discuss is Greg Olsen (12.11), the Bears' rookie. He's undergoing an MRI on his knee right now, so check the results before you draft. And don't expect Olsen to score like a No. 1 TE even if he's healthy -- he's splitting time with Desmond Clark. But recognize this: Olsen has been a training camp star; he's the second fastest TE behind Davis; and he's likely to be the kind of player who could help you in stretches of the season.
KICKERS
The value of the kicker varies from league to league because of the way scoring rules shape the market. At any rate, you already know that kickers aren't supposed to be drafted early, and you're probably going to wait on one unless you've decided to go for one of the top guys. So I'm just going to talk about three that I think should be on your radar.
Nate Kaeding (11.10): Only fantasy geeks know this, but Kaeding finished second to Robbie Gould in kicker scoring -- and did this despite finishing 13th in field goal attempts (he was 26 of 29). Had LT been merely great in 2006, scoring only 20 TDs instead of 30, the resulting field goal attempts would have pushed Kaeding's score up to 154, the best kicker-scoring mark since two players topped that level in 2003. Oh, and by the way? Kaeding currently leads all scorers in preseason, not that it matters.
Neil Rackers (14.02): He was awful in 2006 after being outrageously good in 2005. Signs are he's coming back strong for 2007, and the Cardinals are ... oh forget it, I'm not going to say the Cardinals look improved again, not until they start playing real games.
Jason Hanson (16.05): This is my sneaky kicker pick, so don't get too excited about it, but Hanson kicks for a high-powered but flawed offense, plays in a dome, and doesn't even get drafted in most leagues despite the fact that he finished 6th in kicker scoring last season. Now let's be blunt: There's really no difference between the 6th kicker and 12th kicker, but if you've missed out on the top prospects and it's your final pick, Hanson's a nice option -- particularly because of the dome.
DEFENSES AND SPECIAL TEAMS
Man, it's just about impossible to evaluate these units because the scoring systems are so variable. But I do have one sleeper pick I want to talk about: The San Diego Chargers (8.08). They're the 4th defense off the board, but I'm boosting them a bit ahead of the Baltimore Ravens for a couple of reasons. First, the Chargers are going to be playing with a lead an awful lot, and that tends to produce turnovers. Second, KR Darren Sproles is back from the broken leg that took his rookie season, and he's nothing short of sensational. If your league gives big bonuses for points-allowed you go with a Baltimore or a Jacksonville, but if touchdowns and turnovers are the big points producers, you've gotta like the Chargers this year.
Good luck at your draft this weekend, and let us know how it turns out.
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