***THURSDAY UPDATE: Point-spread picks added.***
WEEK 3 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 32-16 (.667)
ATS: 9-7 (.562); SEASON: 27-21 (.562)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-1 (.500); SEASON: 4-5 (.444)
In my book, 10-6 is a good week and anything above 11-5 is a gift from Gawd. So to be sitting at at .667 after three weeks is something I can feel thankful about.
My expectations are a little different when it comes to point spreads. A guy who used to pick games for a living told Janet that you make money when you can get the spread right 52 percent of the time, and I'm barely above that after three weeks. Can I keep it going? Can I ever have a winning week on my "Best Bets?"
Stay tuned...
OUTCOME: 6-8 on winners, 11-3 against the spread, 4-0 Best Bets.
Confident (Week 3: 3-2 winners, .600; 2-3 ATS, .400. Season: 12-5 winners, .706; 9-8 ATS, .529)
Baltimore (2-1) at (+6) Cleveland (1-2) (1 pm): Think Jamal Lewis will be motivated for this one? Yep. Think the Brownies are going to pull the upset? Nope. It's the Ravens on the road. ATS: Six is the most generous line, with some books as tight as 4 points. I like the Browns to keep it kind of close, so if I can get six, I'm happy. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
St. Louis (0-3) at (-12.5) Dallas (3-0) (1 pm): The Scott Linehan Era in St. Louis is off to a disastrous start after only 20 games. The Rams are a team in absolute crisis and the Cowboys are going to roll big-time. ATS: Give the points, take the Cowboys. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Kansas City (1-2) at (-13.5) San Diego (1-2) (late): Damon Huard is 10-0 as a starter at Arrowhead, but the Chiefs are on the road at the talented but troubled Chargers' house. I call these "get-well games," because they're just what the doctor ordered when you're looking to turn around a program. Rivers and Tomlinson need to get a rhythm going this week, and Ted Cottrell needs to get his unit to stop sucking. ATS: Call me crazy, but I just don't think the Chargers are going to beat the Chiefs by two touchdowns this week. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Green Bay (3-0) at (+1) Minnesota (1-2) (1 pm): They looked similar a few weeks ago, but Green Bay is on another planet this September. A loss by the Packers here would be a shock, and it isn't likely. ATS: Green Bay is only a one or two point favorite this week, and I like them to win. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Chicago (1-2) at (+3.5) Detroit (2-1) (1 pm): This looked like a gimme three weeks ago, but in Week 4 the Bears are the hunted, not the hunters. As bad as the Lions were in Week 3, the should be -- pardon the pun -- loaded for bear against a defense that lost BOTH its starting cornerbacks in the Sunday night game against Dallas. I'm taking the Lions to go pass-happy-nuts against my beloved team, and unless Brian Griese is also going to play corner, I don't see the quarterback change affecting that. ATS: Detroit as a home dog against a reeling Chicago team? Yeah, I know Detroit was awful last week, but... this isn't Chicago's year. Lions, please. OUTCOME: Right on both.
New England (3-0 ) at (+7) Cincinnati (1-2) (MNF): This could be a shooting gallery, with Tom Brady padding his already gaudy stats. Patriots in a high-scoring game. ATS: What? You think the Patriots are going to let the Bengals stay within a touchdown? Have you actually seen these teams play this year? Patriots win by at least a couple of scores, methinks. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Not Betting The Farm (Week 3: 3-0 winners, 1.000; 2-1 ATS, .667. Season: 8-2 winners, .800; 8-2 ATS, .800)
Houston (2-1) at (+3) Atlanta (0-3) (1 pm): Texans, but I sense some upset potential here. ATS: Considering that spidey-sense tingling, I'll take the Falcons to keep it close. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Denver (2-1) at (-11) Indianapolis (3-0) (late): The Colts should win, but it's close. ATS: With the Colts installed as an 11-point favorite, I don't feel too bad about picking the Broncos. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Pittsburgh (3-0) at (+6) Arizona (1-2) (late): Wisenhunt should have the Cardinals ready for this one. I know this is an unusual pick, and I'm not down on the Steelers, but ... well, just don't call it a hunch. I had a "hunch" last week on the Lions, and you saw what the Eagles did to them. ATS: Picking the underdog Cardinals at home with six points doesn't seem quite as crazy. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Just Guessing (Week 3: 6-2 winners, .750; 5-3 ATS, .625. Season: 12-9 winners, .571; 9-12 ATS, .428)
N.Y. Jets (1-2) at (+3.5) Buffalo (0-3) (1 pm): It should tell you something that the Bills played better with a rookie under center than they did with the demoralized and bewildered looking J.P. Losman. Chad Pennington is playing with fiery will. Jets get back to .500 here. ATS: I think the Jets win by a touchdown. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Oakland (1-2) at (-4.5) Miami (0-3) (1 pm): Too many variables to feel confident here, but a Dolphins win seems about right. They're due. ATS: OK, granted, I picked them to win. But let's face it: Vegas is offering 4.5 points on what amounts to a coin flip. I'll take the Raiders to beat the spread. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Tampa Bay (2-1) at (-3) Carolina (2-1) (late): Panthers. I'm worried about inconsistency and the QB starter. ATS: Tampa still has a quarterback in one piece and could easily pull the upset, so I'll take the Bucs against the spread. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Seattle (2-1) at (+2) San Francisco (2-1) (late): Huge game, and I don't know what to expect. I'm going to pick the 49ers at home, but you know: flip a coin. ATS: Getting a couple of points makes me feel better about that coin flip, so I'll take the 49ers. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Philadelphia (1-2) at (+3) N.Y. Giants (1-2) (SNF): It should be the Eagles, but history plays a hand in these games, and it's in the Meadowlands on national TV. I'm going to pick the Eagles here because of defense, but I'm never surprised when Philadelphia comes up small in winnable games. ATS: Maybe the Giants keep it close. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
BEST BETS (Week 3: 1-1, .500; Season: 4-5, .444): Packers, Lions, Patriots, Raiders. OUTCOME: 4-0.
Point spreads via USATODAY.
As usual, Dan, very well reasoned.
I agree that the Giants/Eagles match, the Raiders/Dolphins match, and 49ers/Seahawks could go either way. I went the other way on all these games... but the game in San Fran is my game of the week because I think it will be gripping... and the Giants are my upset special because I think that's a possibility given the inconsistencies of both clubs.
Who knows on the Raiders/Dolphins game, really?
And if the Bears lose... they really will be in a tailspin.
Posted by: Rockwell | September 30, 2007 at 12:30 PM