Think it's too early to get urgent about crucial personnel decisions on your fantasy team? Don't kid yourself: only NFL coaches should be committed to the players on their rosters in September. Fantasy success is based on making intelligent (or lucky) assessments of NFL situations and talent before those assessments become common knowledge.
Sometimes that assessment wisely tells us to do nothing; other times it tells us to trade a player while he still has value. In any case, what you do should be a decision, not just an accident.
The important (though unofficial) deadlines for making these assessments are Week 3 of the preseason (draft prep), the fourth week of the regular season (roster adjustment) and Thanksgiving, when a lot of leagues set their trade deadlines and fantasy teams that are still in the hunt retool for their stretch drives. This means you're coming up on some make-or-break decisions, and we've got the questions after the jump...
Is Laurence Maroney a No. 1 fantasy RB? The answer after two weeks is, "probably not." In Week 3 we'll find out how the Patriots use him in an advantageous matchup, and if they continue feeding the ball to Sammy Morris at the Buffalo goal line, it's officially time to start looking elsewhere. Maroney is a talent, but unless he's your No. 3, he's killing your chances with his piddling production.
Can I count on Lee Evans or Marshawn Lynch as starters? Buffalo has the league's toughest schedule and quarterback J.P. Losman is struggling, but if you've got these guys it's important that you hold off your decision if they falter this week. The Bills don't catch a decent matchup until Week 4 versus the Jets, and that's the game you need to use as your benchmark.
Is it time to cash out on LaDanian Tomlinson? I doubt it, but it's time to start asking the question. He's faced two top defenses and gets a third one at Lambeau, but Superman is supposed to be able to handle these kinds of situations. Basically, we'll be watching this week to see if Norv Turner can get things going downfield and make the Packers pay for keying on LT. If you look at their schedule, the Chargers don't get many patsy run defenses this year, so Week 3 isn't a bad week to make the call. If he doesn't bust out on the road Sunday, start considering really great offers. While you're at it, make decisions on Vincent Jackson, Nate Kaeding and Philip Rivers in Week 3, too. They're not playing well enough to warrant consideration for your starting squad after the first two weeks.
Is Brett Favre's revived play for real? We should find out against the Chargers. This is a much better team than the two over-rated NFC East opponents he's faced so far, and he's at home so there are no excuses if he doesn't perform. If you're losing because you've got McNabb or Bulger or Brees as your starter and you're looking for an alternative, Favre is one of the QBs you need to be grading right now.
What about Matt Schaub? Obviously, if Schaub throws for 300 yards and leads the Texans to an upset win over the Colts, you move him up a category. But what if that doesn't happen? Scout Schaub carefully this week if the Texans lose. How does he handle an underrated Colts defense? How does he respond to the loss of Andre Johnson? I don't think he's a fantasy starter, but he's on the cusp of being a consideration.
Should you be starting any Jaguars? The best Jaguar from a fantasy perspective this year has been David Garrard, and he's merely backup material. For most of us, the guy that matters is Maurice Jones-Drew, and he's been a flat bust so far. And listen: You simply have to decide whether or not you're going to trust him based on this week's game against Denver, because the Jaguars get Week 4 off. Personally, I've got questions about the Jaguars as a team and consider Jones-Drew a big-time bust candidate right now. Your best-case scenario might be a decent game from the guy against Denver, allowing you to get decent trade value before the bye week. Otherwise you'll be starting Week 5 with an RBBC bust as your No. 1 or No. 2 RB. That's hardly a recipe for success.
Is Jay Cutler a legitimate fantasy starter? This second-year player got drafted relatively high and he's started in just over half of CBS Sportsline's leagues last week. If you're a keeper league, you stick with him one way or the other, but should he be in your lineup? Jacksonville has excellent cornerbacks, so let's consider this a decisive test. If Cutler doesn't put up good fantasy numbers this week, you might want to consider acquiring another QB and moving to a QB platoon system.
Time to panic on LJ? Larry Johnson has a combined yardage total of 174, and based on where you had to pick this guy to get him, that's just not getting it done for your team. Neither of his bad games surprised me, considering the teams he's faced, and he draws another tough assignment against the Vikings in Week 3. Anyway, this is where we'll really learn something. If he doesn't break out now, you'll have a tough decision ahead: keep him and hope, or look for value in a trade. His schedule doesn't get any softer. I've been warning people away from LJ and KC all year, so I hope you've been paying attention.
Is the Vikings' Adrian Peterson a starter in year-to-year leagues? His roster value should be obvious in keeper leagues, but should A.D. be a weekly 2007 starter in fantasy leagues? He had that great opening week (much of his production coming on one freaky play), but came back to earth some in Week 2 as the Vikings sputtered behind a terrible performance by their (now injured) QB. This looks like the pattern for 2007: Peterson plays well, but platooning and poor overall production keep his numbers in iffy range. The Chiefs are a tough draw for running backs at Arrowhead, and have yet to give up a touchdown to opposing RBs. If Peterson gets 100 yards and a touchdown this week, consider that a very strong indicator of future performance.
Did you over-pay to get Vernon Davis? If you drafted him ahead of Chris Cooley, the TE most often grouped in his tier this offseason, then yes, you probably did. No one is questioning Davis' raw talent, but his projections are tied to progress by QB Alex Smith and an offensive scheme that is clearly in turmoil since the departure of Norv Turner. To put it bluntly, the 49er offense has sucked so far, and until it integrates Davis into its flow, it's going to continue to suck. I don't see that changing this week against Pittsburgh, and if he doesn't come up big, you're kinda stuck with him. However, if Davis scores, you've got a dilemma: Deal him, or hope it's a sign of a change and stick with him? My advice: Unless you get a crazy offer for him, hold on. Two of their next three matchups are terrible, but after their Week 6 bye the matchups improve dramatically. And think playoffs: The 49ers' final four games are at home against the Vikings, Bengals and Bucs before going on the road to Cleveland in Week 17. Davis is probably a player to acquire at a discount, rather than a guy to deal away.
How many Lions players are worthy of fantasy consideration? At the moment, the answer is four: Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Jason Hanson. The question marks are Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. This is the first week we'll see Jones, so that should help us set the value of Bell, and Furrey and McDonald have got excellent matchups against the Eagles' weak nickels. Anyway, statistically speaking, this shouldn't be a good week for Kitna, Williams and Johnson, so if they play well, they'll have answered a big question for the 2007.
What the hell is going on with Donovan McNabb? I dunno, but to me the bigger question is, are these the same Eagles we've come to know over the past seven years? Let's make this plain: The Lions are a team the Eagles should beat at home, and if they don't, this could quickly become an extremely unpleasant year in Philadelphia. McNabb's accounted for less than 425 yards, a touchdown and an interception in two weeks, which is just awful for a guy who got drafted in the fourth or fifth round. The other thing is, you can't count of McNabb having all year to get warmed up: Injuries have knocked him out of the last two seasons. If he flops and the Lions win, consider this a sign from God to acquire an undervalued backup, which is why all McNabb owners should be watching the platoon-class of QBs carefully this week.
Is Ronnie Brown going to be worth a shit? As of right now, the answer is a resounding "no," and the answer has at least as much to do with Trent Green and the Dolphins' O-line as Brown and Cam Cameron's budding RBBC with Jesse Chapman. Green seems incapable of throwing the out-route this year, which means DBs are able to cheat up on his receivers and crowd the line. If you're counting on him to be your No. 2 RB, you need to see something this week. He's only been good for 141 yards combined in two games, and that's No. 3 territory.
Should you be starting any Jets? At home against the Dolphins is a good test for this group. Only Laveranues Coles and Thomas Jones belong on your radar, and only Coles has been worth starting (two touchdowns on weak yardage). If Jones is going to be worth anything, we should get a glimpse of it this weekend. Zach Thomas is out, which should make Miami rompable. If Jones finishes the game with his average still below 3 yards per carry, it's time to move on.
Is Marc Bulger trustworthy? Talented? Yes. Gutsy? Sure. But trustworthy? I'm not so sure. He's playing with bad ribs behind a cobbled-together line, and if you've ever had cracked ribs, you know what that means. If Bulger goes down, so do expectations from multiple Rams players, particularly Torry Holt and Steven Jackson. The Rams must keep the Bucs off Bulger in Week 3, and if they don't that's a very bad sign. Most owners know about this problem, which is keeping the value of all three of these players low.
Carnell Williams: Cadillac or Chevy? His yardage totals are pedestrian, but he's crossed the goal line twice. The Rams are exactly the kind of team that should provide him a feast, so if he doesn't go off, I'm inclined to maintain skepticism. He's not the kind of back, in the kind of situation, where you can expect him to play well against quality teams, but the question is whether he can play like a No. 2 starter?
Is Matt Hasselbeck a fantasy starter, and is Shaun Alexander a buy-or-sell commodity? I think this week provides a definitive opportunity to set Hasselbeck's value. If he isn't good for 250 yards and at least two scores against the Bengals, then find another starter immediately. As for Alexander, he's playing good, not great football, and the safe money says he'll stay this way. He's hard to trade, unless you've got a nice RB in reserve and someone is offering a stud-quality WR.
Can the Brownies be fantasy factors? Braylon Edwards was on the bench in 69 percent of leagues (and not even on a roster in 6 percent) when he went for 146 yards and two scores last week. Derrick Anderson wasn't even on a roster in 98 percent of leagues when he threw for five TDs against the Bengals. We could go down the list: Brownies just aren't fantasy considerations. Should they be? Well, Oakland's a good test. Edwards, Jamal Lewis and Kevin Winslow are all potential contributors, but they need to produce more than one fluke game against a soft opponent.
Rex Grossman and Cedric Benson: Players or pretenders? Chicago has worked patiently to develop Rex Grossman into the franchise QB they've lacked since injuries got the better of Jim McMahon in the late 1980s. He finally paid dividends in 2006, but he isn't yet the quarterback around which a championship team can rally, and everyone is waiting to see whether he'll make strides this season toward becoming that player. In the second quarter of the Kansas City game, Grossman made a play that would almost have you believe: caught by a blitz, Rex somehow managed to avoid the sack, roll out of the pocket to his right and find Bernard Berrian digging back upfield to help his QB. But in the second half, Rex unravelled, throwing an interception on a screen pass and then misfiring into single coverage for a second pick. Physically the only question about Rex is his height, but mentally... well, Dallas is another one of those crossroads games for Rex. He passed similar tests last year against the Rams and then later against the Seahawks and Saints, but if he doesn't play well against the Cowboys at home on Sunday night, it could be the difference between a trip to the bench and a year on the free agent market or a new contract and a return to the playoffs. Dallas can be beaten through the air, so the onus is on Grossman to do it. Meanwhile, he sure could benefit from better support from his linemen and his receivers, who dropped at least four first-down passes last week, killing whatever chance the Bears had to get a rhythm going. As for Benson, Chicago is still waiting to see if the former Texas star can become the game-changing, clock-killing star he was in college. He's got a longer leash right now than Grossman does, since the Bears will have to decide soon whether to or not they're going to offer him an in-season contract extension.
What wrong with the Saints? There isn't a Saint worthy of a weekly starting spot on a fantasy roster at the moment, and that squandered potential is killing your chances if you got those guy at their ADP. Well, a couple of things pop out at you: Until somebody starts stretching the field at wide receiver, the offense is going to face a bunch of hunker-down defenses, and until Reggie Bush learns how to set up his blockers, he's not going to be the gamebreaker he should be. He's more a receiver than a runner now, and as everyone who was paying attention knew this summer, his upside is that he's splitting a timeshare with veteran Deuce McAllister. Deuce is a known commodity at this point, but the jury is still very much out on Bush, Colston and Brees. If the team is actually as bad as it appears to be -- and that's entirely possible -- then this might be the time to look into deal one of these "name" players for someone who is actually producing this year. Be sure to watch MNF, and be sure to scout the kinds of players who could be available in trade.
I have LJ, Marc Bulger, Ronnie Brown, and Colston on my team.
I'm holding fast for a little while longer, but I'm going to do some tinkering soon.
Posted by: Vera | September 23, 2007 at 12:52 PM
Just to let you know, I got -2, yes minus 2, points for Bulger this week.
Posted by: Vera | September 24, 2007 at 11:02 PM