WEEK 6 REPORT:
WINNERS: 10-3 (.769); SEASON: 57-32 (.640)
ATS: 5-8 (.385); SEASON: 49-40 (.579)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-2 (.000); SEASON: 9-10 (.474)
Last week was something of a return to normalcy, as the wild upsets took a hiatus. I'm actually expecting more of the same this week for some reason, which is probably why I've got more confident picks on this week's list. Oddly enough, my Just Guessing picks finally came over to my side (6-1) last week.
My ATS picks hinged on a couple of spread-ties, so it could have gone the other way. As for my best-bets, I'm back below .500 again, dammit. Why is this so difficult for me to get right?
Confident (Week 5: 4-0 winners, 1.000; 1-3 ATS, .250. Season: 25-7 winners, .781; 19-13 ATS, .594)
Arizona at (-8.5) Washington (early): Before both Leinart and Warner went down, this game would have been a toss up. As it is, I suspect Washington will be able to keep the Cardinals caged up. There's some chance Warner will play, but even if he does, he's not going to be full-speed in what's become a tough matchup. Redskins win. ATS: It's all about the quarterback, really.Warner is going to play, though he's not 100 percent. I think he's enough to keep this one closer, though. So Cardinals. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Atlanta at New (-8) Orleans (early): Saints win their second in a row. ATS: By eight points? Well... yes. The Falcons are starting over with Byron Leftwich, and I'm not sure he's ready to improve their performance. So Saints. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
New England at (16) Miami (early): I know the 2006 Dolphins knocked off the Bears when they were hot, but this isn't 2006. And the Patriots are from another planet.ATS: The narrowest Patriot margin of victory is 17 points. I'm going to stick with that until it changes. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Minnesota at (-9.5) Dallas (late): One of the nice things about that 3-4 defense is you can use it really effectively against the run. Guess who's a one-dimensional running team? Dallas wins behind a strong game by Tony Romo. ATS: Believe it or not, the thing that really created the Vikings' win over the Bears was that QB Tarvaris Jackson didn't turn the ball over. No way that happens again, right? So the Cowboys. OUTCOME: Right on both.
St. Louis at (-9) Seattle (late): Getting Marc Bulger back helps. Getting Steven Jackson back would help more. But until the Rams find an offensive line, this game belongs to the Seahawks, pathetic though they may be. ATS: No Jackson. Sheesh. I feel sorry for the Rams right now, and maybe that's affecting my thinking, but I'll think nine points is a lot. So Rams on a hunch. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Pittsburgh at (+3.5) Denver (SNF): I've got the Steelers as my No. 3 team overall right now, and they're coming off a well-timed bye. The Broncos had better strap up those chinstraps, because the Steelers are going to run right at them. ATS: I'm going to stick with the Steelers. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Indianapolis at (+3) Jacksonville (MNF): This is confident as in "I think the Colts will win," rather than "I think the Colts will win big. Jacksonville is looking much improved. ATS: What the heck: gimme the Jags. Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Not Betting the Farm (Week 6: 0-2 winners, .000; 1-1 ATS, .500. Season: 13-6 winners, .684; 13-6 ATS, .684)
Baltimore at (+3) Buffalo (early): Normally I'd give this to Baltimore big, but the Bills look like they're in one of those stretches where they flirt with adequacy for a few weeks. And the Ravens aren't scaring anybody on offense. This should be a Ravens win, but until they start playing better it's going to be hard to get all confident about them. Sure would be nice to get a big game from Willis McGahee this week if you're a Ravens' fan, eh? ATS: Ravens again.OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
San Francisco at (-9) N.Y. Giants (early:) I think the Giants win at home, but the return of the Alex Smith/Vernon Davis hookup could jumpstart the stalled 49ers attack.ATS: Trent Dilfer is the starter. I'll take the Giants. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Tennessee at (+1) Houston (early): If Vince Young were healthy I'd probably favor the Titans. As it is, I'm looking for the Texans to win, as they should. My hesitancy? The Texans haven't looked good in weeks. ATS: The pick is the ATS pick, so the Texans, again. Wrong on both.
Just Guessing (Week 6: 6-1 winners, .871; 2-5 ATS, .286. Season: 19-19 winners, .500; 15-23 ATS, .395)
Tampa Bay at (-2) Detroit (early): I believe Tampa is the better team, and one of the surprises of 2007. So why am I picking the Lions? Drugs, probably. But it's all about the matchup, and the Lions at home, healthy, playing against the Bucs savvy but slowing DBs is just too good a matchup to pass up. Garcia-to-Galloway is a great hookup, but it's all the Bucs have got at the moment. ATS: Narrow as it is, I'm taking the Bucs. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Kansas City at (-3) Oakland (late): These AFC West games get physical and personal, and they can be awfully hard to call. I'm taking the Chiefs even though they're on the road. ATS: Getting three points really helps me on my Chiefs pick. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Chicago at (-6) Philadelphia (late): The Bears aren't very good right now, but they're not playing as poorly as they've been made out to be. I think they've got the better complete team. Whichever team loses might as well start booking their January tee-times. ATS: With the Bears as the underdog, I really like their chances. OUTCOME: Right on both.
N.Y. Jets at (-6) Cincinnati (late): There were such high hopes for these two mediocre 2006 teams, but they're not even mediocre now. I'll take the Bengals because they're at home, but without much conviction. ATS: I don't see much difference here, so I'm taking the underdog Jets to cover. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Bye weeks: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego
BEST BETS: Coming up...
Oh, you stomped on me last week...
But this week our picks are closer: only two differences with me taking the Bucs and Eagles.
I think that Bucs-Lions game will be fun to watch... strength on strength. But the Bucs have been surprising me all year. Time to go with them. Plus I love the idea of Chucky vs. Martz. Chucky wins on all the points that make football what it is, hard-hitting and gutsy.
Good luck!
Posted by: Rockwell | October 20, 2007 at 06:28 PM