Fantasy Mashup

Wk 13 picks

WEEK 12 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 115-61 (.653)
ATS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 98-78 (.557)
ATS BEST BETS: 3-0; SEASON: 20-16 (.555)

Week 12 turned out pretty well around here,  but that's because favorites went 12-4 this week (I missed on three of the four upset games). Still and all, successful favorites don't help against the spread, and 12-4 in that category made me very happy indeed.

Of course, history reminds me that what goes up naturally comes down, and I'm due a flop week at any time now. But the good news is I'm finally above the .650 mark -- my season goal for straight-up winners -- and my ATS percentage is about seven games above the 52 percent profitability mark. Not stellar numbers. But OK. Even my Best Bets are finally nearing respectability.

Maybe I should quit while I'm ahead. I probably would if I was actually betting on this stuff. The odds are I won't get much better than this.

There's one early game this week, so I'm going to predict that one now and do the rest of the week's games later.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Yep. If last week's 6-0 record in Confident games tells you anything, it's this: I actually felt confident about six games. This week, not so much -- there's only one game I feel confident about, and yes, it's the Patriots.

This is one of wildest-looking weeks of the season so far, and I'll be happy to break even. BTW, it turns out that I picked five upsets this week, and a couple of picks that I thought would be upsets have proven to be slight favorites. Shows what I know.

My biggest point-spread reach of the week? Giving 20 points to the Ravens and still taking the Patriots.

Not Betting the Farm (Thursday night)
Green Bay at (-7) Dallas: This one is getting attention for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which being it's one of the year's greatest matchups, and 40 percent of Americans won't be able to watch it at home. But forget all that. Both these teams are hot right now, with good defenses and great quarterbacks. Ultimately, though, I'm expecting this one to hinge on the matchup between the Cowboys wide receivers and Green Bay's corners. If Harris and Woodson win those individual battles you might see some cracks in Tony Romo's game. Absent that, however, I think Dallas is too good at home and will eventually force the younger Packers into mistakes. Cowboys win a memorable one. ATS: A touchdown is a lot in this one. Packers. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread. Hey, Favre got injured. What can I say?

WK 12 picks

WEEK 11 REPORT:
WINNERS: 11-5 (.687); SEASON: 103-57 (.644)
ATS: 11-5 (.687); SEASON: 86-74 (.537)
ATS BEST BETS: 3-1; SEASON: 17-16 (.515)

TURKEY-DAY EDITION:

Three games start the week off Thursday, and rather than trying to jam the entire week in tonight, I'm just going to rate/pick the holiday games, updating later with the rest of the schedule...

Confident
N.Y. Jets at (-14) Dallas  (4:15 p.m.): I watched most of the Jets win over Pittsburgh and I'm still not quite sure how they did it, but you know know what they say: On Any Given Sunday, Any Team Can Beat Any Team Other Than New England. Dallas is probably the best of the three NFC teams worth mentioning, and Tony Romo is often enough to determine the outcome of games. So the Cowboys. ATS: I'm sticking with the Cowboys, even though two touchdowns is a lot to give up to a team that is coming off its best game of the season. OUTCOME: Right on both.

Indianapolis at (+11.5) Atlanta (8:15 p.m.): Really now.  Does this require any discussion? Colts. Duh. ATS: Weird. Why would the Jets get more points at Dallas than the Falcons get against the Colts? True, Indy is nicked up and Peyton Manning looked mortal last week. But come on. Colts. OUTCOME: Right on both.

Not Betting the Farm
Green Bay at (+3.5) Detroit (12:30 p.m.) The most competitive game is the first one, and the Packers should win it handily. So why the caution? Because it's Thanksgiving, a Detroit tradition, and these are division rivals who know each other pretty well. ATS: Packers again.The Lions' promising season has been coming apart in the past month. OUTCOME: Right on both.

Just Guessing
None among the early games.

BEST BETS: I don't know about the rest of the week, but the PACKERS -3.5 at Detroit looks pretty good.

Sunday/Monday games filed after the jump...

Wk 11 picks

WEEK 10 REPORT:
WINNERS: 8-6 (.571); SEASON: 92-52 (.639)
ATS: 10-4 (.714); SEASON: 75-69 (.521)
ATS BEST BETS: NA; SEASON: 14-15 (.521)

Things balance out in life and in football.Two weeks ago my ATS picks went 4-10. Last week? They went 10-4. That was enough to put me back in the profitable range, though not by much. 

 

Wk 10 picks

WEEK 9 REPORT:
WINNERS: 9-5 (.643); SEASON: 84-46 (.646)
ATS: 4-10 (.286); SEASON: 65-65 (.500)
ATS BEST BETS: 2-2; SEASON: 14-15 (.483)

Last week was my worst of the season at picking against the spread, dropping me down to .500 and reminding me to appreciate anything that stays above .520, the profitable percentage.

The strange part? A week after noticing that my combined ATS percentage between the Confident and NBTF categories was starting to look good, I picked a surprising number of NBTF games (seven) and missed the point-spread-pick on every single one of them.

Wk 9 picks

WEEK 8 REPORT:
WINNERS: 7-6 (.538); SEASON: 75-41 (.646)
ATS: 7-6 (.538); SEASON: 61-55 (.526)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-0 (NA); SEASON: 10-11 (.476)

Hmm. Not such a good week last week, but at least I kept it above the .500 line.

One interesting trend that's starting to pick up significance: The spread picks on the 68 games I've rated as better than "Just Guessing" in the first eight weeks have a combined record of .559 against the spread. Thing is, those categories are assigned based on how I feel about the chances of a team winning, not my confidence in a point spread edge.

But if I'd been betting each of those all season, I'd be eight games over .500 and three games ahead of breaking even at 52 percent.