WEEK 11 REPORT:
WINNERS: 11-5 (.687); SEASON: 103-57 (.644)
ATS: 11-5 (.687); SEASON: 86-74 (.537)
ATS BEST BETS: 3-1; SEASON: 17-16 (.515)
TURKEY-DAY EDITION:
Three games start the week off Thursday, and rather than trying to jam the entire week in tonight, I'm just going to rate/pick the holiday games, updating later with the rest of the schedule...
Confident
N.Y. Jets at (-14) Dallas (4:15 p.m.): I watched most of the Jets win over Pittsburgh and I'm still not quite sure how they did it, but you know know what they say: On Any Given Sunday, Any Team Can Beat Any Team Other Than New England. Dallas is probably the best of the three NFC teams worth mentioning, and Tony Romo is often enough to determine the outcome of games. So the Cowboys. ATS: I'm sticking with the Cowboys, even though two touchdowns is a lot to give up to a team that is coming off its best game of the season. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Indianapolis at (+11.5) Atlanta (8:15 p.m.): Really now. Does this require any discussion? Colts. Duh. ATS: Weird. Why would the Jets get more points at Dallas than the Falcons get against the Colts? True, Indy is nicked up and Peyton Manning looked mortal last week. But come on. Colts. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Not Betting the Farm
Green Bay at (+3.5) Detroit (12:30 p.m.) The most competitive game is the first one, and the Packers should win it handily. So why the caution? Because it's Thanksgiving, a Detroit tradition, and these are division rivals who know each other pretty well. ATS: Packers again.The Lions' promising season has been coming apart in the past month. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Just Guessing
None among the early games.
BEST BETS: I don't know about the rest of the week, but the PACKERS -3.5 at Detroit looks pretty good.
Sunday/Monday games filed after the jump...
THE REST OF THE WEEK
Confident (Week 11: 3-1 winners, .750; 3-1 ATS, .750. Season: 40-13 winners, .755; 28-25 ATS, .528)
Buffalo at (-7.5) Jacksonville (early): This Jaguars team is making me a believer with David Garrard under center. ATS: Jaguars can cover with eight. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Seattle at (+3) St. Louis (early): The Seahawks aren't a great team, but you can almost feel the heat radiating off them since they switched their offensive philosophy. The Rams are getting healthier, but they're not going to have an offensive line this season. ATS: That's an awfully skinny line. Seahawks. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Philadelphia at (-22.5) New England (SNF): The Eagles aren't without talent or professionalism, but they really just aren't good. The Patriots, on the other hand, are absurdly good. ATS: OK, I've been golden picking the Patriots against the spread, but dang. That's a lot of points. Eagles to lose by only three touchdowns. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Miami at (-16) Pittsburgh (MNF): I don't like the way the Steelers are playing the past two weeks, but they'll handle the Fins. ATS: I kinda like the Dolphins to stay within a couple of TDs. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Not Betting the Farm (Week 11: 3-0 winners, 1.000; 3-0 ATS, 1.000. Season: 24-14 winners, .631; 21-17 ATS, .556)
New Orleans at (+3) Carolina (early): Neither team is exactly on top of its game at the moment, but the Saints have more players and the Panthers suck at home this year. ATS: Saints and three? Good by me. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Minnesota at (-7.5) N.Y. Giants (early): I really thought the Giants were going to fall apart this year because of Tom Coughlin's famous inflexibility. Well, if it's possible for a guy to change, Coughlin has really tried to be that guy in 2007, and that's a kind a special story. It's as if something got through to him, he recognized that the world had changed, and he changed with it. I think that makes them winners, and the Giants should get it done against the Vikings. Why the hesitation? I can't quite get a handle on either one of these teams. ATS: Are the Giants a touchdown better than the Vikings? Not if Adrian Peterson is healthy. But he's probably not. Giants. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
San Francisco at (-10) Arizona (late): My only hesitation here is Arizona's habit of disappointing its fans. Otherwise, the Cardinals should roll. ATS: Cardinals. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Just Guessing (Week 11: 5-4 winners, .555; 5-4 ATS, .555. Season: 39-31 winners, .557; 35-35 ATS, .500)
Oakland at (-5.5) Kansas City (early): This game bugs me. I'm taking the home Chiefs, but without any gusto. ATS: Raiders. OUTCOME: Wrong on winner, right on spread.
Washington at (-3) Tampa Bay (early): I've been on the Bucs bandwagon for months now, and if they're ever going to separate themselves this season, now is the time. Thing is, the Redskins are an on-the-fence franchise that sometimes acts like it's on the verge of being a consideration. I've got the Bucs, but Campbell could have something to say about that. ATS: Bucs. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Baltimore at (-10) San Diego (early): It's worse than most people thought for the Ravens, but it's not exactly coming up roses in San Diego. I'm taking the Chargers. ATS: Ravens. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread.
Tennessee at (+1) Cincinnati (early): Another set of teams that are very hard to summarize and explain. Honestly? I don't understand either one of them. ATS: Gimme the Bengals, simply because I keep picking the Titans and I keep being wrong. ATS: Bengals, again. OUTCOME: Right on both.
Houston at (-3) Cleveland (early): I'm feeling the Browns, but the Texans are kinda nuts right now. Something tells me Andre Johnson is going to go bananas. ATS: That winds up being an upset pick, so Texans again. OUTCOME: Wrong on both.
Denver at (-1) Chicago (late): Two up-and-down QBs. Two under-whelming defenses. These are mediocre teams, but I like the Bears to win at home. ATS: Bears. OUTCOME: Right on both.
BEST BETS: (Packers from Thursday).SEAHAWKS, SAINTS. OUTCOME: Right on all three.
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