Fantasy Mashup

WK 17 picks

Another disappointing performance in Week 16 puts me right on the edge when it comes to my season goals (+65 percent winners, +52 percent ATS).

I'll do the final computations later. This week all I'm shooting for is one last round of predictions. I want 11-5 on winners and 10-6 spread picks, but let's face it: Week 17 is a crapshoot, and I've been in a slump for two weeks.

My advice: If you don't have to bet this week, just don't.

Wk. 16 picks

WEEK 15 REPORT:
WINNERS:8-8 (.500); SEASON: 147-79 (.656)
ATS: 7-9 (.437); SEASON: 119-105(.531)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-1; SEASON: 21-20 (.512)

So Week 15 was a pride smackdown for yours truly: Lots of upsets around the league, and I did a poor job of spotting them.

With two weeks to go, my season goals (above .650 on winners, above 52 percent against the spread) are right on the edge. It could go either way, and with Week 17 always so screwy, I could sure use a good week after last week's disaster.

Wk. 15 picks

WEEK 14 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 139-71 (.662)
ATS: 9-7 (.562); SEASON: 112-96 (.538)
ATS BEST BETS: NA; SEASON: 20-19 (.513)

Since somebody asked about it last week (and since I happen to be on vacation instead of my usual working-two-jobs and balls-to-the-wall state), I'm filing these picks on Wednesday.

Had another decent week picking winners, and my 9-7 against the spread was a touch better than my season average of .538. Which should tell you something about the tenuous nature of my campaign against the Vegas line: I'm only three games ahead of the .520 profitability threshold.

Wk 14 picks

WEEK 13 REPORT:
WINNERS: 10-6 (.625); SEASON: 125-67 (.651)
ATS: 5-11 (.312); SEASON: 103-89 (.536)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-3; SEASON: 20-19 (.513)

SUNDAY UPDATE: I picked only two upsets this week and one of those (Bears over Redskins) is already wrong. I'll be shocked if favorites go 14-1 over the next two days, but c'est la vie. That's why I pick games before I look at the Vegas line.

Unlucky Week 13 was my least confident week of the season, and with good reason: while I scraped out a 10-6 record on winners, I took a pounding in Vegas, finishing below .500 against the spread. As I said last week, I was happy to break even on winners (10-6), but failing to do so on the ATS picks was a blow to my ego.

But before we move on to this week's picks, I want to look back at the things I was wrong about in Week 13, because I think it's educational:

PATRIOTS (C/F): Yes, I got the win, but c'mon: I didn't predict this win correctly in any sense beyond dumb luck, and I expect better if I'm ranking a game in the Confident category. Doesn't count against me statistically, but I know better.
BRONCOS (NBTF/BB/F): I can't explain this one. They lost 34-20.
REDSKINS (JG/F): The Redskins controlled the game crumbled in the final minute behind a head-scratching coaching performance and lost by a point.
49ERS (JG/U): I picked the upset, but Vinny played well and Dilfer played horribly.
BROWNS (JG/U): Even with Fitzgerald out, the Cardinals just outplayed the Browns.
BEARS (JG/U): My upset prediction looked solid through about 50 minutes of football and was in play up to the final seconds.
SAINTS (JG/BB/F): Every sign pointed towards a Saints win. Instead, they laid an egg at home against a replacement QB.

For the record, favorites went  a stellar 12-4 this weekend, and even though I picked only four upsets, I picked the wrong ones (my upset picks went 1-3). Vegas wisdom wins this round, big-time.

But can I say I was unlucky? No, not really. Sure, chance is always in play, but when I look back at the week I see only three games that really came down to a coin flip (Patriots, Giants and Bills), and I went 1-2 in those outcomes. That's not unlucky -- that's just a week-to-week wobble.

Wk 13 picks

WEEK 12 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 115-61 (.653)
ATS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 98-78 (.557)
ATS BEST BETS: 3-0; SEASON: 20-16 (.555)

Week 12 turned out pretty well around here,  but that's because favorites went 12-4 this week (I missed on three of the four upset games). Still and all, successful favorites don't help against the spread, and 12-4 in that category made me very happy indeed.

Of course, history reminds me that what goes up naturally comes down, and I'm due a flop week at any time now. But the good news is I'm finally above the .650 mark -- my season goal for straight-up winners -- and my ATS percentage is about seven games above the 52 percent profitability mark. Not stellar numbers. But OK. Even my Best Bets are finally nearing respectability.

Maybe I should quit while I'm ahead. I probably would if I was actually betting on this stuff. The odds are I won't get much better than this.

There's one early game this week, so I'm going to predict that one now and do the rest of the week's games later.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Yep. If last week's 6-0 record in Confident games tells you anything, it's this: I actually felt confident about six games. This week, not so much -- there's only one game I feel confident about, and yes, it's the Patriots.

This is one of wildest-looking weeks of the season so far, and I'll be happy to break even. BTW, it turns out that I picked five upsets this week, and a couple of picks that I thought would be upsets have proven to be slight favorites. Shows what I know.

My biggest point-spread reach of the week? Giving 20 points to the Ravens and still taking the Patriots.

Not Betting the Farm (Thursday night)
Green Bay at (-7) Dallas: This one is getting attention for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which being it's one of the year's greatest matchups, and 40 percent of Americans won't be able to watch it at home. But forget all that. Both these teams are hot right now, with good defenses and great quarterbacks. Ultimately, though, I'm expecting this one to hinge on the matchup between the Cowboys wide receivers and Green Bay's corners. If Harris and Woodson win those individual battles you might see some cracks in Tony Romo's game. Absent that, however, I think Dallas is too good at home and will eventually force the younger Packers into mistakes. Cowboys win a memorable one. ATS: A touchdown is a lot in this one. Packers. OUTCOME: Right on winner, wrong on spread. Hey, Favre got injured. What can I say?

WK 12 picks

WEEK 11 REPORT:
WINNERS: 11-5 (.687); SEASON: 103-57 (.644)
ATS: 11-5 (.687); SEASON: 86-74 (.537)
ATS BEST BETS: 3-1; SEASON: 17-16 (.515)

TURKEY-DAY EDITION:

Three games start the week off Thursday, and rather than trying to jam the entire week in tonight, I'm just going to rate/pick the holiday games, updating later with the rest of the schedule...

Confident
N.Y. Jets at (-14) Dallas  (4:15 p.m.): I watched most of the Jets win over Pittsburgh and I'm still not quite sure how they did it, but you know know what they say: On Any Given Sunday, Any Team Can Beat Any Team Other Than New England. Dallas is probably the best of the three NFC teams worth mentioning, and Tony Romo is often enough to determine the outcome of games. So the Cowboys. ATS: I'm sticking with the Cowboys, even though two touchdowns is a lot to give up to a team that is coming off its best game of the season. OUTCOME: Right on both.

Indianapolis at (+11.5) Atlanta (8:15 p.m.): Really now.  Does this require any discussion? Colts. Duh. ATS: Weird. Why would the Jets get more points at Dallas than the Falcons get against the Colts? True, Indy is nicked up and Peyton Manning looked mortal last week. But come on. Colts. OUTCOME: Right on both.

Not Betting the Farm
Green Bay at (+3.5) Detroit (12:30 p.m.) The most competitive game is the first one, and the Packers should win it handily. So why the caution? Because it's Thanksgiving, a Detroit tradition, and these are division rivals who know each other pretty well. ATS: Packers again.The Lions' promising season has been coming apart in the past month. OUTCOME: Right on both.

Just Guessing
None among the early games.

BEST BETS: I don't know about the rest of the week, but the PACKERS -3.5 at Detroit looks pretty good.

Sunday/Monday games filed after the jump...

Wk 11 picks

WEEK 10 REPORT:
WINNERS: 8-6 (.571); SEASON: 92-52 (.639)
ATS: 10-4 (.714); SEASON: 75-69 (.521)
ATS BEST BETS: NA; SEASON: 14-15 (.521)

Things balance out in life and in football.Two weeks ago my ATS picks went 4-10. Last week? They went 10-4. That was enough to put me back in the profitable range, though not by much. 

 

Wk 10 picks

WEEK 9 REPORT:
WINNERS: 9-5 (.643); SEASON: 84-46 (.646)
ATS: 4-10 (.286); SEASON: 65-65 (.500)
ATS BEST BETS: 2-2; SEASON: 14-15 (.483)

Last week was my worst of the season at picking against the spread, dropping me down to .500 and reminding me to appreciate anything that stays above .520, the profitable percentage.

The strange part? A week after noticing that my combined ATS percentage between the Confident and NBTF categories was starting to look good, I picked a surprising number of NBTF games (seven) and missed the point-spread-pick on every single one of them.

Wk 9 picks

WEEK 8 REPORT:
WINNERS: 7-6 (.538); SEASON: 75-41 (.646)
ATS: 7-6 (.538); SEASON: 61-55 (.526)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-0 (NA); SEASON: 10-11 (.476)

Hmm. Not such a good week last week, but at least I kept it above the .500 line.

One interesting trend that's starting to pick up significance: The spread picks on the 68 games I've rated as better than "Just Guessing" in the first eight weeks have a combined record of .559 against the spread. Thing is, those categories are assigned based on how I feel about the chances of a team winning, not my confidence in a point spread edge.

But if I'd been betting each of those all season, I'd be eight games over .500 and three games ahead of breaking even at 52 percent.

Wk 8 picks

WEEK 6 REPORT:
WINNERS: 11-3 (.786); SEASON: 68-35 (.660)
ATS: 5-9 (.357); SEASON: 54-49 (.524)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-0 (NA); SEASON: 10-11 (.476)

The Football Gods giveth, and the Football Gods taketh away -- like a bunch of spoiled, overgrown babies.

So, yes: I had my best week of picking winners, but I also took a drubbing on my ATS picks.

As for my "Best Bets," well, they just didn't happen, thanks to my participation in the ConvergeSouth tech/media/user conference in Greensboro, NC. I was kinda busy.

But let's put this in perspective: I had a good week because NFL favorites finally had a good week. Favorites went 10-4. with only the Steelers (road), Ravens (road), Raiders (home) and Eagles (home) choking on their opportunities.

And I expected to do well: I ranked seven games as Confident, the highest number I've ranked that securely all season. Six of those games came through for me. Meanwhile, my guesses finally nudged over the .500 mark, thanks to a 4-0 turn in the Just Guessing category.

This week I'm not so confident: Only four games get my Confident label, while seven fall under that Just Guessing header.