Week 13 NFL Picks

I got lucky for the second week in a row, going 13-2. That doesn't make me an expert though, or I would have noticed that I neglected to pick the Cincinnati v. Cleveland game. Because I'm a dork.

Can I stay lucky for the third straight week? Can I keep my season winning percentage at .714?

I wouldn't bet on it.

Confident

(Last week, 5-0; Five-week record: 19-6)

Ravens at Bengals: Ravens. Cincinnati will be a popular upset pick at home this week, but I'm not buying. Not after watching what the Ravens did to the Steelers last week. They're too talented and mentally mature to let this one get away.

Lions at Patriots: Patriots. No quarter. No mercy.

Colts at Titans: Colts. I know the Titans played them close the last time, and they might do it again. But the Colts win these games. It's why they're an elite team.

Vikings at Bears: Bears. The last one was close and required a big play by Tommie Harris. This one won't be close. Minnesota has the misfortune of facing an irritable Chicago team that's out for revenge and respect.

Chargers at Bills: San Diego. Buffalo has been playing true to identity and improving. They could give the Chargers a tough game, but I doubt it.

Niners at Saints: Saints. Mike Nolan has his guys playing decent football, but Sean Payton has his guys playing at another level.

Cowboys at Giants: Cowboys. Unless Tony Romo falls apart, the Cowboys are going to win this one big, and all hell is going to break loose in New York.

Buccaneers at Steelers: Steelers. The Bucs need to rebuild. The Steelers need to recover. December in Pittsburgh is not a good place if you're a Buc.

Not betting the farm

(Last week, 3-1; Five-week-record: 16-6)

Chiefs at Browns: Browns. This is going to catch people by surprise, but my gut tells me that the Brownies are going to come out tough this week. That's all I'm picking by here.

Jets at Packers: Jets. Something gives me a little extra confidence in this outcome, which really should be treated as a guess if you look at it on paper. Not much separates these teams in terms of talent, which usually means a win for the home team. I'm picking against trend here because I think the Jets have adopted Eric Mangini's gamer mentality. They come in thinking about how to beat you, not whether they're better than you. They know they're not better than anybody. But they're crafty and they play as a team.

Jaguars at Dolphins: Jaguars. I never like picking the Jags, because they're so inconsistent. On the other hand, the Dolphins have won four straight and are like a guy who has hit nine straight free-throws and is about to choke on the tenth.  I think the Jags come out focused and Joey Harrington goes back to being Joey Harrington.

Just guessing

(Last week, 5-1; Five-week record: 18-8)

Cardinals at Rams: Rams. I'm tempted to go upset here (St. Louis is ripe for one), but I get the sense that the Cardinals are just playing out the string now.

Falcons at Redskins: Falcons. This is another game where I'm just flipping a coin. Clearly the Falcons have the talent to win, but they've had the talent to win every game on their current losing streak. I don't get them, but I do understand this is their last chance to salvage some sense of pride in 2006.

Texans at Raiders: Texans. Oakland has a respectable defense, but the shift to John Shoop as offense coordinator is just ridiculous. Watch the Raiders go into an offensive shell in which they try to limit their mistakes. Watch it not work. Houston gets a rare road-game win.

Seahawks at Broncos: Broncos. We'll get to see Jay Cutler for the first time, and it wouldn't surprise me if he had some success. Shanahan will keep it simple and count on the team elevating its execution behind its new playcaller. Meanwhile, the Seahawks go into a hostile environment. They may be favored because of the Cutler factor, but I don't think the Vandy rookie will be what makes or breaks the Broncos.

Panthers at Eagles: Panthers. Wow. Another game against another weak NFC East opponent. I'm picking the healthier, more complete Panthers to win, but really: Who knows with these guys?

Last week: 13-2 overall; 5-0 confident; 3-1 NBTF; 5-1 Just Guessing.

Season: 125-50 (.714 winning percentage)

Comments

[lynn]

Hmm, in field goal range. Havent been throwing too accurately. What shall we do, I guess just fling it to wherever the hell it will land... Oh boy, is Football affecting my blood pressure. What was Carolina thinking????