XARK 3.0

  • Xark began as a group blog in June 2005 but continues today as founder Dan Conover's primary blog-home. Posts by longtime Xark authors Janet Edens and John Sloop may also appear alongside Dan's here from time to time, depending on whatever.

Xark media


  • ALIENS! SEX! MORE ALIENS! AND DUBYA, TOO! Handcrafted, xarky science fiction, lovingly typeset for your home printer!

  • XARK TV

  • XARKAGANDA

  • XARKTOONS
Blog powered by Typepad
Member since 06/2005

Statcounter has my back

« Put a little 'aaarh' in tiara | Main | "Victory" »

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Daniel

OK, you people who really follow football betting tell me if this is normal: of the 16 teams that came into Week 14 as favorites in Vegas, 10 of them lost outright.

Isn't that odd? Shouldn't a point-spread -- as determined by thousands of wagers -- be a better aggregator of knowledge? It's got to do better than that (.375) over time, right? Forget about the point-spread: What percentage of Vegas favorites actually win outright?

What if one of the reasons that I'm doing better than usual this year has to do with the fact that I don't look at the spreads until after I make my picks? Does avoiding that influence (denying myself select information) prevent bad information from affecting my own intuition?

The comments to this entry are closed.