After a couple of weeks of good luck on my "Just Guessing" picks I took a beating this time, going 2-3 in the category. My record in Week 13 was a so-so 11-5, which brought my season record to 135-55 and lowered my winning percentage to .712.
I've got a couple of upsets in this week's selections that surprised even me...
12/8 UPDATE: As another experiment, I'm going to see what happens if I try to pick against the spread (ATS) as well. Won't include last night's game, obviously...
Confident
(Last week: 6-2; Six-week total: 25-8)
Cleveland (4-8) at Pittsburgh (5-7): Pittsburgh. I probably like Cleveland more than most people this year, but a lot of that was based on the energy of young players like Edwards and Wimbush and the surprising leadership of the gutty Charlie Frye. Last week's semi-stunning upset of the Chiefs, however, was largely the result of heroic play by an unknown backup QB, Derek Anderson, and it's hard to see that happening two weeks in a row. Anderson was a 6th round pick in 2005 by the Ravens, who waived him at the end of his first preseason and lost him to the Browns. Earlier this year he beat out Ken Dorsey for the No. 2 spot. That's all nice and everything, but now this tall kid out of Oregon State goes to Heinz Field, where the Steelers are particularly tough, and he plays against the 9th best defense in the league. Last week the Steelers physically dominated another struggling team. So yeah, I'm confident here.
Tennessee (5-7) at Houston (4-8): Tennessee. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in team defense and they roll with a rookie quarterback. Knowing those two facts, it's hard to imagine that you would ever pick them to win on the road. But two factors contribute to my confidence in the Titans this week: 1. Vince Young has caught carbonated lightning in a bottle, and I'm going to ride that streak until the last of the fizz leaks out; 2. Hey, it's Houston. ATS: Houston -1, so take the Titans.
Seattle (8-4) at Arizona (3-9): Seattle. Both teams are coming down off nice road wins, and it's a division game. You'd like to think that gives the Cardinals a little extra juice at home, but I just don't see that Arizona is making enough progress to challenge a playoff-bound power like the Seahawks. ATS: I'll take Seattle at -3.
Oakland (2-10) at Cincinnati (7-5): Cincinnati. There are problems in Oakland that extend throughout the organization, and yes, they're stuck with the worst offensive coordinator this side of Kevin Gilbride. But they actually do boast the third-best defense in the NFL, and I can't figure out how that happened. You figure that a team with that kind of weapon should have more than two victories, and maybe you start to doubt that the Bengals are a lock to win this game. Well, there are no locks in the NFL, buddy, but this is one of those occasions when you remember that statistics can get you in trouble. Cincinnati is on a roll right now, they're at home, and if the best pass defense in the league bothers them, they'll just pound the Raiders to death with Rudi Johnson. I simply can't see the Benglas bungling this one. ATS: Cincinnati is giving 11 points on this one, but I'm still taking the Bengals.
Not betting the farm
(Last week: 3-0; Six-week total: 19-6 )
New England (9-3) at Miami (5-7): Miami. If there's a football fan who dislikes Nick Saban more than me, I'd like to have beers with him or her, but folks, something about this matchup just keeps whispering "upset" in my ear. The teams have split their series each year since at least 2004. Miami is at home. The Dolphins have the better defense, and the Patriots are accumulating injuries to their defensive unit. Miami lost last week, which could give them added focus this week, while the Patriots were lucky to get out of Detroit with a win. One last thing: Tom Brady isn't himself right now. In the past five weeks he's thrown more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six) en route to a 3-2 record. ATS: I'm taking Miami to win here, so the fact that they're a 3-point underdog doesn't really enter into it.
Indianapolis (10-2) at Jacksonville (7-5): Indianapolis. That was a freakish loss to the freakish Titans last week for the Colts, but I don't think anybody would be stunned if the Jaguars put another loss on them this week. Jacksonsville is the most unpredictable team in the league, and the only thing you can say about them with confidence in 2005 is that the Jags won't win (or lose) three in a row. They're on a one-game winning "streak" at the moment, which means they could be great or awful at home against Indianapolis. Conclusion? Don't analyze the Jags this week. Look at the Colts. They're an elite team with an elite leader, and I'm taking them at home or on the road every week, barring the occasional odd confluence of factors (I picked against them when they played Dallas). It's my inability to account for Jacksonville that keeps this one out of my "confident" category. If the Jags show up alert and turn loose their quite-competent RB duo, they are entirely capable of winning this game. ATS: The Colts are only giving between 1 and 1.5 points here, so that's not a huge consideration. Colts.
Green Bay (4-8) at San Francisco (5-7): San Francisco. The 49ers are on a two-week slide and were undressed by a far-better Saints team last week. The Packers travel to the West Coast on a three-week losing streak that includes a shut-out by New England and a terrible performance against the Jets that left Brett Favre more or less speechless. And therein lies the rub: When two struggling teams with some competence and upside come into a matchup off of big losses, it's hard to predict how they'll react. I'm going with the 49ers based on home field advantage and coaching, but I'm aware that Favre is always capable of putting up a big game, and that gives me pause. ATS: San Francisco is the 4.5-point favorite, so 49ers to win, Packers against the spread.
Denver (7-5) at San Diego (10-2): San Diego. The Chargers have won eight of their last nine, including the game at Mile High that started the Broncos' current three-game losing streak. On top of that they get Denver with a rookie at quarterback and question mark hovering over middle linebacker Al Wilson (sprained neck), the heart and soul of their defense. I expect to see the Chargers win and do well, but this is a division game between two teams that have battled in recent years. A few lucky bounces could turn things around for the reeling Broncos. ATS: Sports books have the Chargers favored at anywhere from -7 to -9. I'm tempted to take the Chargers and give seven, but I'll take the Broncos at 9.
Chicago (10-2) at St. Louis (5-7): Chicago. The Rams have all the makings of a classic get-well game for a Chicago team that has been in retreat on offense its Nov. 5 loss to Miami at Soldier Field. In the first place, the Rams look to be in some kind of disarray, with the quarterback questioning the character of his teammates and rumblings of player dissatisfaction with the new coaching staff. Secondly, the Rams have the league's 23rd-ranked defense, and are actually the second-worst rushing defense (better only than the turnstile Colts). Finally, they play in a dome. My guess is Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner will feature his RB-tandem of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, keeping the Rams' offense on the bench and limiting Rex Grossman to fewer than 25 passing attempts. That said, this is also the venue where Grossman broke his ankle in the 2005 preseason... and it's entirely possible that his critics already have gotten too deeply into his head... and perhaps playing the Bears will motivate St. Louis at home... and what if Marc Bulger's rare tongue-lashing actually motivates the Rams? I don't expect this to happen, but there are just too many questions surrounding the Bears this week for me to feel truly confident. ATS: The Bears are a 6-point favorite, and despite my doubts I'll take the Bears and give the six. When they win this year they tend to win by decent margins.
Just guessing
(Last week: 2-3; Six-week total: 20-11)
Minnesota (5-7) at Detroit (2-10): Lions. This one is just a guess because Detroit is slightly better than awful with Kevin Jones in the lineup at home and the Vikings still don't know who their quarterback is going to be in Week 14. The Lions showed signs of life against the Patriots, while the Vikings took something of a beating from the Bears. Will Brad Johnson get another start? It seems the only thing keeping him a contender for the job is the shoulder separation Brooks Bollinger suffered in Chicago. Rookie Tarvaris Jackson is another option, but boil it all down and you've got a back-to-basics offensive philosophy that doesn't even know who it's leader is going to be. I don't really like the prospects of either of these teams at the moment, but one of them has to win. ATS: I'm a little surprised to see that Vegas has the Lions as the 1-point favorite, but I'm sticking with Detroit to win and win by two or more.
Philadelphia (6-6) at Washington (4-8): Philadelphia. This one is a true toss up. Neither of these teams has a significant future as currently configured, and they're both wildly inconsistent. They also know each other pretty well, so no surprises on scheme or personnel. As for the matchup... flip a coin, buddy. ATS: The line here runs from pick-em to Philly -1.5. Honestly, this is a game I wouldn't bet, but for the sake of the experiment I'll pick the Eagles to win and cover.
New York Giants (6-6) at Carolina (6-6): New York. Another toss up. Hey, did you read the story in The Inky about how Eagles CB Lito Sheppard knew to jump the fade route to Keyshawn Johnson in the final seconds of Philadelphia's comeback win over the Panthers Monday night? The Eagles defensive backs studied film and realized that every time Jake Delhomme looked at a receiver and patted his butt, it meant he was about to throw the fade. Sheppard spotted the signal and played the fade so well that the Panthers were convinced he made illegal contact to get to the outside. Nope, the problem isn't cheating by the Eagles, it's predictability by the Panthers. They lost, in the end, because they were out-coached and out-performed. The Giants are another flavor of coaching disaster, and one of these once-promising teams is going to come out of Week 14 with a losing record. I suspect it will come down to bounces, but my gut says a few more of those bounces will go the Giants way, even on Carolina's home turf. ATS: Carolina is a 3-point favorite, but some sportsbooks have taken this game off their boards, probably because of the thumb injury to Delhomme. I like the Giants to win outright, so yeah, I'd take the points here if they're offered.
Baltimore (9-3) at Kansas City (7-5): Kansas City. This one surprises me, because I respect Baltimore quite a bit and would normally expect them to bounce back strong after an anomalous beat-down like the one they suffered last week against the Bengals. But Kansas City isn't chopped liver, and the Chiefs are coming off their own wake-up-call loss (in overtime, to Cleveland). In looking at the tape, Kansas City didn't look as flat as Baltimore did, and it left me wondering whether the Ravens haven't lost that sense of urgency that animated them early in the year. Call it nothing more than a hunch, but if the Chiefs play their game on offense and McNair doesn't have a significantly better game, Kansas City will win this game and raise some big questions about the AFC North leader. ATS: I'm surprised to see that Vegas agrees with me and is making the Chiefs the favorite by -3. I think it's going to be close, so I'm going to take KC to win, but Baltimore to cover. Seriously, I thought I was picking an upset here.
Atlanta (6-6) at Tampa Bay (3-9): Atlanta. An enigmatic team on the road against a weaker squad is never a strong pick. But the Falcons should get things done here. I think. ATS: Atlanta is -3. I'll take the Falcons and give the points.
Buffalo (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5): New York. I'm taking the Jets at home, but I do so with trepidation. The Bills are playing pretty good football right now, and this is the kind of game that overachieving teams like the Jets can drop (at home, coming off a big win with an inside line on the playoffs, against a struggling division rival). ATS: The Jets are giving 3.5 at home, so I'll take the Bills and the points.
New Orleans (8-4) at Dallas (8-4): New Orleans. Here's the game of the week, and I suspect the entire world will be picking "America's Team" to win it. Call me contrary, but the more I think about this one, the more I believe in the Saints, and here's why: New Orleans has been getting better without anybody noticing, while The Tony Romo Project is the biggest story in the NFL (outside of the "Rex Grossman is Cade McNown in Drag" storyline that everybody on sports talk radio wants to hype). Romo came back to earth a bit last week (though he was still magic in the clutch), but make no mistake: the best QB in the NFC is Drew Brees, and I'm taking the Saints offense to keep the over-confident Cowboys off-balance all game. ATS: This might be the worst line of the week. Dallas is a -7 to -8.5 favorite, and I think they're going to be upset at home. So I definitely like New Orleans against the spread here.
OK, you people who really follow football betting tell me if this is normal: of the 16 teams that came into Week 14 as favorites in Vegas, 10 of them lost outright.
Isn't that odd? Shouldn't a point-spread -- as determined by thousands of wagers -- be a better aggregator of knowledge? It's got to do better than that (.375) over time, right? Forget about the point-spread: What percentage of Vegas favorites actually win outright?
What if one of the reasons that I'm doing better than usual this year has to do with the fact that I don't look at the spreads until after I make my picks? Does avoiding that influence (denying myself select information) prevent bad information from affecting my own intuition?
Posted by: Daniel | Friday, December 15, 2006 at 01:27