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Wednesday, December 06, 2006


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OK, you people who really follow football betting tell me if this is normal: of the 16 teams that came into Week 14 as favorites in Vegas, 10 of them lost outright.

Isn't that odd? Shouldn't a point-spread -- as determined by thousands of wagers -- be a better aggregator of knowledge? It's got to do better than that (.375) over time, right? Forget about the point-spread: What percentage of Vegas favorites actually win outright?

What if one of the reasons that I'm doing better than usual this year has to do with the fact that I don't look at the spreads until after I make my picks? Does avoiding that influence (denying myself select information) prevent bad information from affecting my own intuition?

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