Week 17 NFL Picks

Here's what I wrote a week ago:

Lots of difficult games to project this week, and I've got less confidence in more picks this weeks than I've had all season.

Well, that turned out to be prophetic. I sucked those proverbial donkeys last week on my straight-up picks, going just 6-10 on winners. The only bright spot? My against-the-spread picks, on which I finished 10-6. But if you look at last week's picks you can almost see it coming: I ranked only two games as "confident," while 10 of the remaining 14 got ranked as "Just Guessing." Clearly I just couldn't buy a clue.

The sad part is that my dismal performance finally brought my season average back below 70 percent again (.681), although realistically, that's probably a much more appropriate number. Batting .700 is just gaudy -- it's not something I can expect to do week-in and week-out. So while I was sorry to see the winning percentage go, I'm more relaxed now.

If memory serves, Week 16 was my second losing week of 2006 and undoubtedly the worst week I've had all year. Week 17 is notoriously unpredictable (ask any fantasy football player), but hope springs eternal...

THURSDAY A.M. UPDATE: ATS picks are filed. This week's Best Bets: Seahawks as a road dog, Texans at home (last week's Best Bets went 1-1, and my combined Best Bets record is just 3-4, so clearly this feature hasn't been successful since I started experimenting with it).

Confident
Lions at Cowboys: Cowboys. I mean, they've got to win sooner or later, right? And the Lions really and truly suck. Favorite: Cowboys -13. I'll take the Lions to beat the spread.

Raiders at Jets: Jets. It's not like the Jets haven't lost some games they should have won this year, but they've bounced back well and they're a focused group, while the Raiders are coming across the continent to end a year that everyone in the Bay Area would rather forget. Favorite: Jets -13. The Jets don't tend to win big this year, so give me the Raiders to keep it a bit closer.

Cardinals at Chargers: Chargers. Maybe the Chargers will rest their starters once they get a 14 point lead. In that case they'll only win by 20. Favorite: Chargers -13.5. I'll stick with the Chargers to cover.

Bills at Ravens: Ravens. It's always possible that the Ravens will rest their starters, but with a shot at holding court for the AFC playoffs, I suspect they'll pummel the Bills. Favorite: Ravens -9.5. Ravens to win and cover, but not by much.

Not Betting the Farm
Panthers at Saints: Saints. I can't begin to describe how low the Panthers have fallen this season, and the Saints are at home. Favorite: Panthers -3. The favorite here has switched since the opening line and at least one sportsbook has taken this game off the board because nobody knows how long the Saints plan to play their starters. Or the affect Jake Delhomme would have returning to the Panthers lineup in front of his hometown NFL audience. So yes, these are definite x factors... but if I've got a chance to pick a team like the Saints at home and get points? I'm taking it. Saints.

Seahawks at Bucs: Seahawks. The Seahawks showed signs of life playing against the Chargers last week, and the Bucs aren't a great team under Tim Rattay -- just a better team than they were under rookie Bruce Gradkowski.  This actually feels like one of those games where the Seahawks could take out their frustrations a little bit. Favorite: Bucs -3. Another example of a game where the opening line has flip-flopped the favorite because of concerns about how long the Seattle starters will play. Again, this doesn't change who I think will win the game, so I'm taking the Seahawks and the points and feeling fortunate. Check out Mike Holmgren's comments and judge for yourself whether he's going to sit down his stars.

Rams at Vikings: Rams. Two dome teams whose season isn't going anywhere, and the difference here is that the Vikings are already in rebuilding mode while the Rams have remote playoff possibilities and a shot at a .500 season. Favorite: Rams -3. Once again, Vegas changes its mind. The Rams began the week as a 1-point underdog, but are now between 1-point and 3-point favorites. This is awfully close, and represents the kind of game I wouldn't bet, but for the purposes of this exercise, I'll go to Bodog.com where the underdog Vikings are getting 3 points at the moment (other sportsbooks are giving anywhere from 1 point to 2.5).

Falcons at Eagles: Eagles. As screwy as this year has finished up, maybe Michael Vick will go nuts in Philly and end the year on a high note. But it's far more likely that this is the final game of the Jim Mora Jr. Era, and that the resurgent Eagles get one last celebration in front of the home fans. Favorite: Eagles -8. I don't really know why, but I think a touchdown will cover the spread in this one. Give me the Falcons and the points.

49ers at Broncos: Broncos.  If the 49ers were going to be a playoff team the time to prove that was last week against the beatable Cards. Now they draw a trip to Mile High, and that's not a good spot for a young team like this one. Favorite: Broncos -10.5. OK, I don't like the 49ers chances to win here, but let's not forget that the Broncos are far from flawless. Are they really two scores better than the Niners? Not to me.

Packers at Bears: Bears. All sorts of things could affect this game, the final contest of the 2006 regular season. A Brett Favre announcement in the locker room... or maybe things fall so that the Packers are playing for a shot at the post-season and they'll come out breathing fire. But it's more likely that the last playoff slot will have been decided before kickoff, which is an enormous emotional wild card. How will the Packers react to whatever news faces them before squaring off against their traditional rivals on the road? Also making this one hard to pick is the Bears themselves: They've got little motivation to play their hurt players and showed last week that they'll turn to backups in the fourth quarter even with the game still in question. I think we'll get a hearty dose of Grossman and Urlacher, but if the Bears are going to win against the Packers, it's going to fall to guys like Cedric Benson, Brian Griese and Ricky Manning Jr. to pull it out. I think they will. Sunday night game. Favorite: Bears -3. This line has shrunk from -5 since betting began, and it's for the reasons stated above. Thing is, Bears backups on offense are still on par with the Packers' starters (so long as they leave the starting offensive line intact), and the only defensive players who don't have legit backups are Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs (who will play into the second half unless it's a blowout). So even though I missed on them last week (by a point against the Lions),I'll take the Bears and I'll give the three.

Just Guessing
Giants at Redskins: Redskins. Sure, the Giants have "something to play for," and the Redskins are already done. But the Giants have had something to play for for weeks, and they've stunk. The Redskins, meanwhile, are playing like they believe in Jason Campbell, who is far from perfect but making strides. Saturday game. Favorite: Redskins -2.5.  There's been a 5-point swing in Washington's favor since the opening line, making this another "upset" pick that's no longer an upset. Methinks gamblers are waking up to the fact that the Giants just aren't what they should be mentally. I'm sticking with the Redskins, even if they have to win by three to pay off.

Browns at Texans: Texans. I'm sure I'll regret taking the Texans, but they're at home off a big win against a Brownies' unit starting its third journeyman QB of a weary season and acting like a horse that's heading for the barn. You've got to have something wrong with you to care about this game. Favorite:  Houston -4. Considering what's going on with Cleveland at the moment, I think the oddsmakers are being a little generous to the Texans. I'll give the points.

Jaguars at Chiefs: Chiefs. There's no confidence in this pick whatsoever. Favorite: Chiefs -2.5. Actually, this line is all over the map -- 2.5 is just closest to the average. I'll take the Chiefs and give the 2.5, but if I'd shop around and take a bookie that's offering a more narrow line.

Patriots at Titans: Patriots. My second-week-in-a-row of picking against the Titans, the hottest team in the NFL. What am I, crazy? No, the Patriots are just a better team right now. Favorite: Titans -3. Why not rest your starters if you're Bill Belichick? He sure did it last year, and you've probably seen the hit Tom Brady took last week. Here's the true confession: If I wasn't doing this in public and hadn't already made this pick, what I read in the papers this morning would probably convince me to change this selection. As it is I'll remember that nobody really knows anything about pro football, including me, and stick with the Patriots. I'm reminded of how vulnerable the Titans run defense has been, and I've got the feeling that this could be a nice spot for Lawrence Maroney's young legs. Patriots and points.

Steelers at Bengals: Bengals. I think Bill Cowher is great coach, but I think this is his last game. If it is, and the team knows it, they might come out and play inspired football... but then again, they just got their tails whupped by the Ravens for the second time this season, and they might be a demoralized unit. Who knows? I'm really taking the Bengals here more than I'm picking against the Steelers. I expect them to attack and score points.  Favorite: Bengals -6. That's too much. Give me the Steelers to beat the spread.

Dolphins at Colts: Colts. You'd think that the Fins will pound Ronnie Brown all day, and perhaps they will. But I just get a sense that the Colts will take this one at home and go into the playoffs as the league's biggest postseason enigma. Favorite: Colts -9. Again, that's waaaay too many points for these teams in this situation. Dolphins against the spread, please.

Point spreads via USA TODAY.

Statistical postscript: The only way I can finish above .700 for the season is to pick every game correctly this week, a feat I have accomplished only once in my life (it occurred in 1986 while I was doing a border tour at Camp Gates, "The Haingrun Hilton," in the old West Germany). Could it happen again? It's just a little less likely than winning a few thousand dollars in the lottery... Meanwhile, the worst I can finish is .637, or just below the .650 goal I set for myself this season...

Comments

[Rockwell]

I can't believe I had a better week than you for once. You are right about being over .700. I don't know how you did it for so long.

I was at about .690 last year... but this year I'm 100 points off that rate.

But maybe the final regular week bodes well. I only have one pick different... the New York/Washington game. I think this will be close but the Giants will finally get it together.

(Oh, and you should check out my post ”Five Blogs” if you get a chance.)

[Eric]

Hey Xark are you going to post your picks against the spread?

[Daniel]

I love you, Rick Rockwell. Thanks for the generous review!

Eric: The ATS picks are in. I try not to do those before Thursday, so the line has time to develop...