Xark!: NFL Power Rankings: 2006 Final

One last look at the teams from 2006, with glances ahead to the playoffs and the 2007 off-season...

Elite teams
1. San Diego Chargers, 14-2 (last week, No. 1): The Chargers are the closest thing in the NFL to a flawless team this year, and that can only mean one thing: Whatever that hidden flaw is is about to explode in their faces. I'm only partially kidding. This is my Super Bowl pick, and I like them so much that I'm tempted to say that there's the Chargers and then there's everyone else. But that's not quite right. There's also the Ravens.

2. Baltimore Ravens, 13-3 (Last week, No. 2): This defense isn't as good as the 2000 version, but that's a ridiculous mark. The 2006 Ravens have a great defense and an offense that is significantly better than the insipid unit that won the Super Bowl six years ago. A good offense and a great defense is a hard combination to beat, which is why they'll play for the AFC Championship in San Diego.

Good teams
3. Chicago Bears, 13-3 (last week, No. 3): I'm keeping them at No. 3 (for no particular reason), but with the defense in reverse and the iffy nature of the passing attack week-to-week recently, I can't call my beloved Bears an elite team anymore. That said, don't believe the hype that's busting them as an early-out playoff team. All the NFC teams this year are flawed, and with the Bears getting healthy in the secondary and the line adjusting to the loss of Pro Bowl DT Tommie Harris, that defense should be better in two weeks. That said, Rex Grossman's meltdown against the Packers is cause for alarm. I'm not disregarding that loss, but it's also pretty clear that Chicago just wasn't mentally prepared for that essentially meaningless game.

4. New England Patriots, 12-4 (last week, No. 4): Let's talk about Lawrence Maroney. Without him the Patriots looked a bit shaky in two consecutive outings, but with him back in the lineup in Week 17 the Patriots pretty much stuck it to the upstart Titans. Maroney is this team's catalyst on offense, and the defense is workmanlike and tough. Oh, and then there's the quarterback, Tom somebody... Despite all these qualities, this team is actually quite the cipher. If they catch fire, they're capable of running away with the title. But it also wouldn't surprise me if they lost to the Jets this weekend.

5. New Orleans Saints, 10-6 (Last week, No. 5): The Colts of the NFC get a bye despite only 10 wins, and here's hoping they get everybody back into the groove they'd been on before last week. The defense isn't as much of a liability as the Colts' is, but if the Saints are going to be successful in the post-season they'll have to put pressure on their opponents via the offense. That's their style, and if they get all their weapons involved they're the most dynamic attack in the league, bar none.

6. Philadelphia Eagles, 10-6 (Last week No. 6). Their starters are backups, and last week when they realized that they'd won the NFC East by default they put in the backups to their backups and still won. Sheesh. These guys are the hottest thing outside of the AFC and they're playing like they're on a mission. Thing is, they're playing above themselves, and everybody has the tape. My thinking goes like this: contain Jeff Garcia and you can start to break this offense down a bit. This is the year of the QB streak, and when these streaks end they end roughly (just ask Tony and Rex about that).

7. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-7 (Last week, No. 14): Did you hear Herm Edwards after the Chiefs made the playoffs? He hammered the idea that the Chiefs were "lucky" to get in and basically berated the media. Was he just being defensive? Nope -- he's playing to his own locker room. The Chiefs will be breathing fire in Indianapolis and -- if they win, as I expect they will -- they're going to pick up some serious juice. Larry Johnson is the second-best running back in the league, and the defense has some bone fide studs on it. Look out. Cinderella wants to kick some ass.

8. Indianapolis Colts, 12-4 (last week, No. 8): The Colts needed a bounce-back game and they got one, but Peyton Manning is going to have to be perfect to make up for the defensive flaws on this squad. This team needs a serious upgrade in the off season, and can concentrate all its efforts on the defensive side.

9. New York Jets, 10-6 (Last week, No. 10): They're getting better as the season winds down, and the Patriots should be nervous. Is there a better match-up in the first round than Belichick vs. Mangini? Mangini has less talent to deploy, but he seems to have a better understanding of his mentor than vice versa. This could be the beginning of a classic rivalry, and long may it run.

10. Seattle Seahawks, 9-7 (Last week, No. 13). They're better than this record, I think, and I expect them to win at least one game in the post-season. You just know that the Cowboys are going to attack the two backups playing corner for the Seahawks this week, and that could be critical, but I like this defense and its ability to pressure the quarterback.

11. Dallas Cowboys, 9-7 (Last week, No. 7): OK, agreed: They've been awful. But this is a talented team with a Hall of Fame coach, and we're in the playoffs now. They can get better quick, and if they connect deep early against the Seahawks, the game could easily flow their way.

The Middle Muddle
12. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-8 (Last week, No. 12): Next year really ought to be the Bengals prime time: Fantastic offensive weapons in the prime of their careers, the Steelers in rebuilding mode, the Ravens aging. They're disappointed, but with a solid off-season they could be a Super Bowl contender in 2007 -- and maybe even the team to beat.

13. Denver Broncos, 9-7 (last week, No. 9): What a flop at home -- and then to lose a key player like that in a drive-by shooting? There's no telling how all of this will play out for the Broncos in the off-season, but it's hard for me to believe that this won't be a greatly improved team in 2007. Jay Cutler to Javon Walker could be a marquee combo for the next 10 years.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-8 (Last week, No. 15): If Jack Del Rio can figure out why this group keeps underachieving and fix that problem, the Jaguars could be a great team. The problem? As the offensive talent matures, the defense is aging.

15. Tennessee Titans, 8-8 (Last week, No. 11): The Titans are the feel-good story of 2006 and it's easy to just project that into the next year. If it only worked that way. There are big holes on the defensive side, and Vince Young is a human being who will regress somewhat as he moves toward what should ultimately be a successful NFL career. So enjoy the Titans -- but don't put too much baggage on them yet.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-9 (Last week: No. 16): Everyone expects Cowher to retire, and I don't think anyone expects the next coach here to walk in and succeed in Year No. 1. Again, there's plenty of talent to go around, but 2006 indicated that this group could go either way. Talk about a tough act to follow as a coach.

17. Buffalo Bills, 7-9 (Last week, No. 17): Bills fans have to be happy with what they saw in Dick Jauron's first year, and J.P. Losman is the new cornerstone of this franchise. He's got great weapons in Evans and McGahee. But for all its improvement, I suspect this team is going to reflect Jauron's teams in Chicago -- competent and prepared, but not capable of playing great football in big games.

Upward to Mediocrity!
18. Green Bay Packers, 8-8 (Last week, No. 19): My nomination for the under-appreciated achievement of the year is the Packer's' .500 season. These guys looked lost in Week 1 against the Bears, but they found themselves as the year wore on, getting better as other teams were wearing out. Sure the Bears were looking ahead to the playoffs in Week 17, but don't let that detract from what the Packers did: They physically whipped Chicago. If Brett Favre comes back, the Packers could even contend for the NFC North in 2007.

19. St. Louis Rams, 8-8 (Last week, No. 20): Four touchdowns by Steven Jackson against the Vikings? That's impressive. Why did it take the Rams 17 weeks to find that offensive identity, against one of the league's best run-defenses? They really need to rebuild, re-tool, reload, whatever -- but there's a core of offensive talent already in place.

20. New York Giants, 8-8 (Last week, No. 18): Will someone please just send this team home? They beat the Redskins -- barely -- and made the playoffs by tiebreakers. I've come to dislike this team intensely -- it's a ship of fools kept afloat by Tiki Barber, who isn't coming back. Without Tiki, they don't come close to winning last week. Here's hoping the Maras fire Tom Coughlin within 24 hours of the upcoming playoff loss to the Eagles.

21. San Francisco 49ers, 7-9 (Last week, No. 22): Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis: the San Francisco triplets. This team didn't belong in the playoffs in 2006, but they'll contend for the NFC West title in 2007.

22. Washington Redskins, 6-10 (Last week, No. 21): Jason Campbell continued to progress in Week 17, and if the coaching staff can keep a grasp on reality they'll build around him instead of constantly fantasizing that they're only a free agent away from a conference title. They aren't. The big question this offseason involves running back. Ladell Betts was just more productive this year than the injured Clinton Portis, and Betts is a free agent. Decisions, decisions.

23. Atlanta Falcons, 7-9 (Last week, No. 23): Do over.

24. Carolina Panthers, 8-8 (Last week, No. 24): Another waste of a season, except in this case the Panthers are left to wonder about the future of their franchise at quarterback and middle linebacker. There's talent here for a title run, so the Panthers need to infuse some talent in a hurry, not piddle around like eccentric gardeners.

25. Minnesota Vikings, 6-10 (Last week, No. 25): Tavaris Jackson is the offensive future, and that's a lonely spot. They've got a journeyman running back in Chester Taylor and no wide receivers to speak of. The defense is solid, but they need some cover corners. This unit has lots of quality role-players, but needs stars and difference-makers.

26. Houston Texans, 6-10 (Last week, No. 27): I still think the Texans and David Carr need to part ways, and yes, they could use a stud running back like Adrian Peterson. But then again, they need linemen... and linebackers... and defensive backs... Here's a young franchise that really hasn't made much progress and now must decide its future at quarterback all over again.

27. Miami Dolphins, 6-10 (Last week, No. 26): I know most people disagree, but the best thing that could happen to this team would be for Nick Saban to sign with the Crimson Tide. The Dolphins need some sanity at quarterback and as many quality offensive linemen as they can acquire. Saban is a prima donna who hasn't proven himself at the professional level but acts like the league and the media owe him respect that he hasn't earned. Come to think of it, that's the way his team played this year.

Their mothers are embarrassed
28. Arizona Cardinals, 5-11 (Last week, No. 28): Matt Leinart and his two wide receivers make this an intriguing team, but everyone knows that the key to its improvement is going to come on the offensive line. The coaching change will be important, so it's hard to project these guys into the future right now.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-12 (Last week, No. 29): Jon Gruden won the Bucs a Super Bowl with Dungy and McKay's players but has managed Tampa's program poorly ever since. The Bucs have needs busting out all over: offensive linemen, defensive linemen, wide receivers, defensive backs. And is Chris Simms really the answer at quarterback? Gruden is in trouble.

30. Cleveland Browns, 4-12 (Last week, No. 30): Romeo Crennel had me convinced around the middle of the season that he had this team headed in the right direction. It didn't turn out that way. The Brownies finished poorly, and despite young talent on both sides of the ball they played like punks in December. For Crennel to survive, Cleveland will have to make dramatic progress in 2007, and I don't know that they're prepared for that kind of improvement.

31. Detroit Lions, 3-13 (Last week, No. 31): Matt Millen says he won't quit no matter how bad the Lions are. This makes sense: quitting would cost him millions. William Clay Ford is going to have to fire him, but that's been obvious to everyone EXCEPT William Clay Ford for at least three years. Just blow this team up.

32. Oakland Raiders, 2-14 (Last week, No. 32): They need new assistant coaches, a new quarterback, new wide receivers and ... you name it. The Raiders need everything. My advice: Start with a quarterback in the draft, and then bring in a veteran QB to care-take the position for a year. Damon Huard, for example. Or maybe Jeff Garcia will want to return to the Bay Area. But for heaven's sake, don't draft Brady Quinn and toss him to the wolves as a rookie, and don't bring him in with guys like Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks on the roster. But the bottom line is what nobody in football wants to talk about: the problem here is future Hall of Famer Al Davis. Until you fix that problem, none of the other problems are going to get fixed. Period.

Comments

You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

One thing of note: Ladell Betts was re-signed December 8, so that decision's already been made. :)

I hear you on the Chargers. A ten game winning streak, sadly, seems ripe for the breaking, and I really see the Ravens being the ones to do it. The Ravens have just gotten better as the season's gone on. At least San Diego wouldn't have to see them in Baltimore again...

Posted by: Jared Smith | Wednesday, January 03, 2007 at 00:16