Rookie RB FFB analysis

Every now and then a receiver or a quarterback comes into the NFL as a rookie and makes a significant statistical splash. Finding that guy? It's a crapshoot.

That's why the fantasy focus on NFL Draft Day belongs on the running back group. Look at what Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch did last year.

This year's running back class? It's even better, and much deeper. Here's my first-glimpse fantasy ranking of the guys picked on Day 1.

1. Darren McFadden, (1.4), Oakland: Oakland's offensive line isn't horrible, and there's enough talent at the receiving positions. McFadden will share some carries with 2007 1,000-yard rusher Justin Fargas, but the only things that could slow McFadden in 2008 are the development of QB JaMarcus Russell and a contract holdout that delays his reporting to camp. Remember: This team is still run by Al Davis, which means simple little things can turn into the Baatan Death March. 2008 Fantasy value: Treat him like a No. 2 with upside.  Keeper value: Superstar.
2. Jonathan Stewart (1.13), Carolina: Not only did the Panthers pick up a solid starter in Stewart, they also improved their offensive line by scooping up 6-6, 340-pound tackle Jeff Otah. I'm penciling Otah and Gross in at the tackles, which moves Wharton back to guard, where he belongs. He'll be splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams, but I expect to see Stewart collect about 60 percent of the carries, particularly around the goal line. 2008 Fantasy value: Should be a low-end No. 2, definitely a strong pickup if he's your No. 3. Keeper value: Should be a long-term fantasy starter.
3. Rashard Mendenhall (1.23), Pittsburgh: I liked Mendenhall more than anybody but McFadden, so he's got no shortage of talent and there's still plenty of tread on his tires. He'll be splitting carries with Fast Willie Parker this year, so that's going to keep his numbers down a bit. But to be blunt: I'd like to see the Steelers upgrade their line. 2008 Fantasy value: You might have to pay for him like a No. 2 in a keeper league, but he's likely to put up No. 3 numbers. Keeper value: Star.
4. Matt Forte (2.13 - 44), Chicago: The Bears' 2007 flop had an awful lot to do with a woeful offensive line and the tentative running of Cedric Benson (who ended the season with an injury, again). The book on Forte reads an awful lot like the book on Benson, only with an emphasis on character issues.  The Bears upgraded their offensive line in the first round, and Forte will have a chance to compete for the 1A RB role. 2008 Fantasy value: Here's a guy who'll put up No. 3 numbers, and you'll be able to draft him with a late pick. Keeper value: Possible NFL starter.
5. Felix Jones (1.22), Dallas: Here's a big-play guy who is going to fill the role Julius Jones was supposed to fill. The only problem? It's an RBBC with Marion Barber, and Barber is the goal-line guy who'll rack up the yards in the 4th quarter. 2008 Fantasy value: talented RBBC guys in high-scoring offenses make classic No. 3 RBs, but the chances are you'll have to pay an inflated price for Jones. Keeper value: Should be a top 12 running back within a couple of years.
6. Ray Rice, (2.24 - 55), Baltimore: Here's a workhorse player... who'll sit on the bench behind Willis McGahee. 2008 Fantasy value: He could have been a statistical contributor with another team, but he's a No. 4 in this spot. Keeper value: Could be an NFL starter someday, but it's not clear that he's special fantasy prospect.
7. Chris Johnson (1.24) Tennessee: Here we go again. The Titans just keep taking running back high in the draft. Johnson is light and fast and everything LenDale White isn't. He strikes me as a complementary back, but he'll have prove he can block before he gets to see the field on third down. 2008 Fantasy value: I figure he's a No. 4 with talent. Keeper value: I surely don't know.

More on this tomorrow...