Little-known fact: Palin = Alaskan for "disaster"

There's no shortage of jackleg commentary on the Palin announcement, and this post definitely fits under that category.

But I just can't stay away: It's like riding a high-speed freight train at the moment when you realize the brakes have failed. No mighty crash yet, but you're starting to understand what's just become inevitable.

Here's why...

"Whoops:" The Reader's Digest Version of this post
(Aug. 31 update) Since this is a longer post and most of us have short attention spans, here's the executive summary:

• QUALIFIED?: Though they appear respectable on first blush (governor is considered a good training ground for presidents), Palin's qualifications are laughably meager.
• GENDER: If the GOP tries to use Palin to attract both cultural conservatives AND pro-Hillary feminists, it risks insulting those Hillary voters.
• DIRECTION: Palin moves McCain away from the center, trading swing votes for higher turnout among evangelicals.
• RURAL POLITICS: Rural politics succeeds via skills that provoke scandal when applied to larger groups. Palin has already run afoul of this rule, producing at least one scandal.
• MCCAIN PER SE: McCain's choice undercuts his strengths vs. Obama, highlights his age and once again calls his judgment into question.
• MEDIA: Putting an untested politician in the media spotlight at the end of the campaign is an enormous risk (with limited rewards).
• PERCEPTION: In comparison to Obama's selection of Biden, McCain's pick makes his campaign look weak and desperate.

Want to understand the reasoning? Read on...

"Qualified?"
What makes a person qualified for national office? Well, being governor is a good start. Sixteen presidents reached the White House via some state's executive mansion, and more significantly, four of the past five rose to prominence as governors.

But Alaska is different: Its population (683,000 in 2007) is less than, say, Forth Worth's, and it's spread over 650,000 square miles. That's a population density of about 1.2 people per square mile, making it almost four times as empty as its closest competitor: Wyoming.

So while being chief executive of a state is good experience, the governor's desk in Juneau (the only state capital not accessible by road) isn't exactly the same thing as the top job in Albany, or Sacramento, or even Cheyenne, for that matter.

Of course, more goes into a person's qualifications for national office than just their most recent job. And while there is absolutely no doubt that Palin has been a successful human being, it now falls to the Republican Party to make the following case:

Two years as governor of Alaska, + a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Idaho + a stint as a TV sports reporter in Anchorage + working in commercial fishing + four years on Wasilla City Council + two terms as mayor of Wasilla (she won her second term with a grand total of 909 votes) + raising five children = credible preparation to become President of the United States at a moment's notice.

Does that mean she couldn't do the job if it fell to her? Of course not. For all we know, John McCain might have picked a uniquely gifted politician based on some subtle insight into her personality. But is her resume likely to inspire confidence among undecided voters?

That's another question entirely.

Gender
Would McCain have named a male 44-year-old Republican governor of Alaska as a running mate? Do I really need to answer that?

The most obvious part of this selection is that it was made to shore up a demographic where Democrats have generally done well. No problem there.

But it might also signal another intention: To exploit perceived anger among disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters.

No doubt there are Hillary partisans who are pissed off about the Democratic primaries and remain angry at Obama. Based on comments I've read and callers I listened to on CSPAN, there are some older feminists who are considering an anybody-but-Obama vote for McCain.

If McCain's thinking is that a woman will boost his profile among women, that's probably sound thinking. But pro-Hillary feminists have little in common with Palin and will be alert to any scent of tokenism.  Should McCain attempt to use Palin as a lever for prying fence-sitting feminists away from their natural party, he risks forcing them back to the Democrats.

The core of  the feminist movement remains Pro-Choice. Assuming that they'll be comfortable with an anti-abortion woman at Veep is a very, very risky assumption. If Clinton supporters perceive it as an insult, the result could be a net loss.

Direction
In traditional presidential politics, candidates run to the left or right during the primaries and triangulate toward the middle during the general election. Obama's selection of a white man with establishment credentials was a status-quo, centrist move.

But McCain is in an odd position, and has been all year. He's as centrist as modern Republicans get, and managed to win the nomination thanks to his party's "winner take all" rules. A series of crowded pluralities put him at the top of the ticket, and the party's far-right and cultural conservative bases were just plain livid.

Hence Palin. Two female friends of mine who come from those bases were very happy with her selection yesterday, as it represented a move back toward their values. Only they're not even close to being politically mainstream in 2008.

Here's the problem for McCain: Both of those women were already going to vote for him. Enthusiastically? Not at all.  But reliably. In picking Palin, McCain is in essence trading a more active base for swing voters. His winning strategy now relies on improving turnout among cultural conservatives who have never liked him.

The "Rural thing"
America has always romanticized rural life, and no doubt the McCain campaign has prepared all sorts of comebacks that will turn criticism of Palin into insults against anyone with a rural background.

But I want to talk about another "rural problem:" politics. Effective politics in rural America is based on person-to-person knowledge. You might run on an abstract platform, but you build roads and fix potholes and run sewer lines by knowing people who do stuff. It isn't the way things work in civics texts, but it's the way things work in Waynesville, NC, and Awendaw, SC.

During my 20-year newspaper career, I saw this pattern play out over and over: A small town hits a development boom, and within five years the old political order falls into chaos, typically because of a scandal. A judge fixes a speeding ticket for a cousin. A mayor gives a contract to a friend without opening it to bids. Invariably, the people implicated in these scandals can't understand why people are so upset. They typically get defensive and bitter.

Palin arrives on the national scene already equipped with her own ready-made podunk scandal.  She just doesn't seem to grasp that this isn't the way other people do politics, that the rules that govern small towns just don't work when you are dealing with more outsiders than insiders.

Best-case scenario for McCain? Palin manages the learning-curve quickly. But she's going to have to adopt new ways of thinking on the fly. And if she makes a gaffe (which she will -- everybody does), she's going to have to avoid a small-town response.

McCain per se
McCain's strongest attribute is that he's the Republican nominee. He's going to get the support of everybody from those whack-jobs who support teaching intelligent-design in public school science classes to people who back gay marriage but believe in trickle-down economics. That's probably 30-35 percent of the electorate.

But you get past that,and the second-strongest thing that McCain's got going for him is that he's a white guy.  There are a lot of white people out there, and a lot of them are just uncomfortable voting for people who aren't white guys. Doesn't mean they hate women. Doesn't mean they hate minorities.  It's just that they've always voted for white guys, and they're not so big on change. They've got a comfort zone, and they don't like to leave it.

McCain's problem? Those two gr0ups tend to overlap.

I think McCain wins by convincing swing voters that the devil they know (old mediocre white guys) is better than the devil they don't (charismatic young black guys who might be secret Muslims). To do that, he has to look solid and trustworthy (two that words have never described McCain). He's got to play Father Knows Best, not Top Gun. This is why he's handed his candidacy over to his Rovian handlers, btw.

Then he goes and picks Palin, a move of stunning political incompetency. Before Friday, it looked like McCain's best debate move against Obama would be to stand there looking white and bland and safe, whilst talking about experience and judgment (Not that his judgment is very good these days -- but you can sell the "Trust Grandpa" product so long as you can make Obama look like Freddie "Boom-Boom" Washington from Welcome Back Kotter).  Now he can't touch the "experience" argument without bringing up the "Palin Problem."

Conservative commentators seemed to be making a big deal out of the idea that Palin would frustrate the Democrats "because you can't play rough with a girl." But that doesn't play well with feminists and could boomerang on them, proving once again that the Rove wing doesn't understand women as anything but stereotypes. Again, it doesn't speak well to McCain's judgment and experience.

Then there's his age. He would be the oldest president ever elected, and he's going to look even older when he's standing on a stage with Obama. Think Palin is going to enter swing voters' minds when they're looking at McCain in that context?

Media
On the day she was nominated, Palin became the focus of the "Little Known Facts" Twittermeme. What's going to happen when Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Lewis Black, Jesus' General and a few million other comedians get their hands on her? What's going to happen when the press starts to turn hostile?

It's a bewildering media landscape these days, and even the pros don't understand it.  The odds are that Palin is going to have tough days. How will she respond? Perhaps more importantly, how will McCain respond?

Perception
The Biden pick didn't excite anybody, but it reflected something important about the Obama campaign: It doesn't need a home run to win, and it knows it.

Palin represents a desperate Republican Party. It needs to shore up its base. It needs to reach out to women. It needs to generate some excitement for an old candidate who hasn't excited anybody since Rove destroyed him in South Carolina eight years ago. And it has to do something to disassociate itself from President Bush, who is going to open the party convention in the midst of a New Orleans hurricane. It's just not easy being GOP this year.

Desperation conveys weakness. And people simply aren't thinking ahead to what's coming: McCain and Obama standing on a stage face-to-face. It's going to be hard for McCain to look presidential in that setting. He's going to look small and frail and prickly and more than a little pathetic. You can also count on The Daily Show to keep making that point.

How will Palin look on the stage next to Biden? Conservatives are giddy over the thought that Biden will have to "dial back" his natural aggression, but if Biden is simply respectful and restrained and stands there and cites his experience, over and over and over, he wins. The burden of proof will be on the unknown candidate, so Palin will have to take the initiative and attack. That carries an enormous risk, as Dan Quayle proved in his encounter with Lloyd Benson.

Conclusion: Another misstep
I know my conservative friends are excited. I know there are people who think this is going to be a winner. They could be right -- I've been wrong plenty.

But everything about the current state of the presidential race reminds me of the late innings of a marathon baseball game. The Democrats hold only a narrow lead, but they haven't had to go to their bullpen yet and the GOP is already swinging for the fences on every pitch. Yes, everything could change with one swing, but you can sense that the game is slipping away from the Republicans.

The mass media is avoiding this conclusion because they win by keeping the race close. But I think it will be hard to obscure this perception a month from now.

We shall see.

Comments

[Joyce Sasser]

Thanks, Dan....just what i needed to hear....your take on this dramatic jump into the unknown.... I think you are correct, but it will be an interesting and exciting run along the way here anyway....historic no matter what comes down the pike.... What I want to know with Palin is how the husband of Palin, who has called himself "1st Dude" as husband of the Alaskan Gov., will describe how he will be a commercial fisherman in DC ... they cannot take care of 5 kids and be a family without being in DC if they were to win, and can't we all just imagine this poor guy trying to find a way to make a living or feel he has significant employment or work within the life he would have there.....
That one is difficult....we have all imagined what a spouse would do in DC for both president and vice president but most of the time we considered that as the female....OR as an ex-president! All of those are relatively easy to do....this one is a lot different......want to watch this one and see just how creative they can be...not that it will matter since they will NOT win the election, but it is an interesting exercise for ALL of us.....
Thanks, Dan....Mom

[Tyler]

Great write-up, thanks ♥

[Daniel]

The Vice President earns more than $198,000 a year, and doesn't have to pay for housing or transportation or health care (they might have to pay SOMETHING for health care, but let's at least conclude that the bennies are EXCELLENT).

If the Palins can't make it on $198,000 a year (Sarah makes $81,000 as governor... do we really think her husband is knocking down $117k PLUS the cost of the family's housing and transport?), then that's really quite a statement. Anyway, as "Second Dude," Palin's husband's job would be to keep a low profile and shut up, as the press would only pay attention to him as a novelty or a "Northern Exposure" buffoon.

Quick quiz: Name three things Lynne Cheney has done (other than write novels with scenes of hot, explicit, lesbian sex in them).

[Robert]

Politico notes that last year Alaska's governor had a salary of $125K, and Mr. Palin made $93K in fishing and oil production.

By the way, did one of those hot lesbian scenes involve the First Lady and the VP?

[Daniel]

My bad. I did my reporting by looking at the Alaska State Statutes.

http://tinyurl.com/58x8qf

I don't doubt that they're probably outdated.

[ncwatterson]

Good job, Daniel-

Let's not forget that there are a lot of people out there who will feel as I do about this pick.

When The media finally hit Google and explained what credentials she had, I was PISSED.

How dare this 72-year old, 4 time cancer survivor DARE to invite this woman to be one heartbeat away from the presidency? It is irresponsible and crass. I don't think I've ever seen such a cynical move in politics.

And as a woman I am insulted at his obvious view of my intellect. That smirk he had on his face. God, if he really needed that badly to get back to his nap, why didn't he just do us all a favor and pack it in, so we can get back to the business of pulling this country back from the abyss?