Note to pol-junkies: Chill

When it comes to politics, I spend most of my conversation time trying to help friends of mine understand what's changed (social media, ad-hocracies, etc.). But with some liberals suddenly getting skittish over things that go bump in the dark, here's my other message:

Dudes: It's AUGUST.

Yes, yes, yes: There's lots to be done. The fund-raising pace has to be maintained. The race is close. And every day brings the new possibility that some bullshit smear will change the focus of the campaign unless the Obama people stay ever-vigilant.

Got it.

But here's what hasn't changed:

1. The lightning round doesn't start until after Labor Day. Americans are sick of politics right now, so give them a break;
2. Obama is going to get a nice boost after Denver;
3. McCain will get one, too, after Minneapolis.  Just don't expect it to be as big as ours;
4. Eventually there are going to be debates, and swing voters are going to eyeball these two men and decide based on all sorts of comparisons, many of which are going to break Obama's way... Besides, I suspect most of the "undecided" voters who aren't going to vote for Obama have pretty much figured that out by now, based on the realization that he's a black guy named BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA. Not exactly John Quincy Adams.
5. Most of the true undecideds are likely to come our way... so long as we don't screw that up by acting like idiots.

The fundamentals of the Democratic case this year are good -- from the mood of the public to the way the state races are shaping up. Liberals/progressives are going to win offices across the country this year, and I think Obama's going to lead the way.

So really: Chill.

Stop sweating/celebrating every little poll fluctuation. Quit obsessing over the veepstakes.  Enough with applying paranoid, loser narratives to every dip and turn.

Too many liberals have forgotten how to be winners. Step No. 1 is, when you take the lead, act like you've been there before.

Comments

[Sam]

This post definitely applies to me. I can't decide if its truly because its worth being nervous about (hey, I was pretty damn sure we were gonna win last time AND the time before that, even though our candidates weren't so charismatic and this whole summer-lovin' thing Obama's got going on doesn't necessarily mean a thing come election time) or just because I'd rather give the elections my attention than whatever is going on in pop culture (although I am quite enjoying the drama of the Olympics).

Maybe it's just because I came of political age just in time to protest Little Bush's inauguration, or maybe its my strong memories of staying up at night as a kid watching Dukakis steadily fail, but I'm not sure I know how to chill out and allow myself to be a political winner. But that's what meditation and running are for.

Anyway, liked the post.

[jj]

speaking from the viewpoint of an independent McCain supporter, i hate polls.

i believe that most (99.9 percent) of the people who do polling have an axe to grind. they cook the results by how they ask the questions and to whom, all in order to influence those who read the poll results.

that, and people lie. the only place they make their true choices known are in the voting booth.

Dan's 100% right: don't listen to polls. or those who want you to obsess over them. just listen to the candidates and vote your conscience.

[Daniel]

I don't hate polls, and I don't think most pollsters have an ax to grind. Their business is RELATIVE predictive accuracy, and there is a science to it.

BUT:

1. Modern polling is based on calls to landline telephones. But telephone usage has changed, and thanks to the proliferation of cell phones, there are real reasons to question the sample that phone polling provides.

2. Asking people what they think when they haven't really thought about something is ... of limited utility. Garbage in, garbage out.

One other thing: Summer polling data during competitive presidential years... really just hasn't been predictive. Particularly before the conventions.

I like polls because you can learn stuff from them. But it's all about how you read them.