Xark!

The ignored Vick issue

It may seem a bit more heated than this on talk radio, but the debate over Michael Vick and his due-process rights really got settled weeks ago. Vick will be convicted or acquitted in federal court, and up until that point he'll be paid as his contract stipulates despite the fact that he won't be playing for the long-suffering Atlanta Falcons. End of story.

A few people will treat this "anti-Vick" decision by the NFL as a proxy issue for their feelings about racism in general, but it's a poor analogy. The league's new commissioner went on a personal-conduct-policy tear months before the Vick indictment, and from a practical standpoint, the Falcons can't afford to have Vick disrupt their 2007 season. They're better off from a competitive standpoint if he sits.

But the big issue before us is what becomes of Vick after the court decision. Jail time is probable if he's convicted, but what if he isn't (which happens to about 10 percent of defendants facing federal indictments)? Will the NFL welcome Vick back?

And this is what brings us to what should be a central issue in the Vick case, but somehow isn't: Gambling.

Isn't it strange that, for all the media attention paid to Vick and dogfighting, so little attention has been paid to the basic purpose of this brutal bloodsport? I've yet to hear or read a commentary that connects the dots between Vick's involvement in an illegal gambling enterprise, at whatever level of plausible deniability, and his simultaneous involvement in a professional sport that must take great pains to keep its operations free of connection to gamblers.

Why is that, exactly?

NFL Draft Day 1 Fantasy Report

From a fantasy football perspective, the top three rounds of this year's NFL Draft were pretty tame. By my count there are only five potential rookie fantasy starters at the end of the day, and few veterans moved around.

SAFEST ROOKIE FROM A FANTASY PERSPECTIVE: Assuming he signs his contract and shows up to minicamp and training camp, RB Marshawn Lynch should be a Day 1 starter for Buffalo. There are reasons to like this player in this situation:  He's the No. 2 RB in this year's class, has a good combination of skills and talents, and he goes to a Bills team that has a good young QB-WR combo in Losman and Evans. Also the Bills invested in offensive linemen during free agency. Lynch doesn't look like a sure-fire NFL star, but he's the kind of guy who could gain 1,100 yards and score eight to 10 times in 2007.

BOOM-BUST PICK: Adrian Peterson dropped to the Vikings at No. 7, and since Minnesota just picked up former Baltimore backup Chester Taylor for big bucks in 2006 free agency, that puts the draft's top RB in an RBBC with a guy coming off a 1,200-yard season. Combine that with his indeterminate recovery from a broken clavicle and it's pretty obvious that Peterson is a high-risk fantasy pick, particularly in teams that don't carry-over players from season to season.

But here's the way I look at it. Bottom line on Peterson is that he'll play. His floor is about 600 yards and five touchdowns. His ceiling? Nobody knows. Peterson comes into the league with powers and abilities far above those of mere mortals.

It says here that he'll split time with Taylor his rookie season, post No. 3 RB fantasy stats, and then move into a true feature-back role in 2008.

GREAT PLAYER, BUT CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM: Everybody in the world agrees that Calvin Johnson is a once-in-a-generation prospect, but his fantasy situation is murky at best. In the first place, he'll be playing alongside the closest thing to a Calvin Johnson clone in the league (Roy Williams). His Mad Scientist offensive coordinator did a poor job of keeping the Lions balanced in 2006, which means that situations, competition and poor QB play could do more to shut down Johnson than any defense opposing coordinators are likely to devise.

Johnson should become a great fantasy player, but it might take him two or three years. Had he gone to Tampa I'd have considered him a potential Top 20 WR in 2007, but right now he looks more like a No. 3 with upside.

TIGHT END CONTRIBUTOR: One of the under-reported stories of Day 1 was the plunge taken by Miami TE Greg Olsen. Considered the No. 11 pick overall by Mel Kiper, Olsen was considered a mid-first-rounder in most mock drafts. When he slid all the way to the Bears at No. 31, Jerry Angelo abandoned his plans to trade down and took the tight end he has been looking for since 2005.

Olsen will not be the starter in Chicago. That distinction will belong to Desmond Clark, who is coming off his Mentos year. But don't get too hung up on that. Olsen will see plenty of action in 2007 and could wind up being a valuable pickup in leagues that require a TE. Just don't overspend to get him, because he's not likely to score like one of the top six NFL TEs.

SITUATIONAL SLEEPER:  Brandon Jackson doesn't strike me as an NFL fantasy stud, but he's a first-day rookie in a good situation. Green Bay can move the football, and Jackson is in position to contend for the starting job. Doesn't mean he'll take advantage of the opportunity, though.

NOT THIS YEAR: Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn might start for their prospective teams  at some point this season, but they're not worth drafting in most fantasy leagues. Picking up as free agents during the season? That's more like  it. 

VETERANS WHOSE STOCK JUST DROPPED: If you've got Chester Taylor on your roster, today was a bad day. Not only did Taylor finish 2006 weak after a strong start, but now he starts the 2007 season as the guy competing with Peterson, one of the most dynamic RBs to come into the league in a decade. He was a protectable player on Friday, but he's a toss-back-in-the-pool guy as of Saturday afternoon.

Steven Jackson is universally recognized as a Top 5 (if not Top 3) fantasy RB. But the Rams may have created a bit of an RBBC when they drafted FB/RB Brian Leonard in the 2nd round. Leonard (who would have been an intriguing fantasy prospect had the Giants drafted him on the previous pick) is just too good to leave on the bench.

VETERANS WHOSE STOCK JUST ROSE: Josh McCown moved from backing up Jon Kitna in Detroit to an open competition for the starting QB job in Oakland. McCown is a journeyman, but he could easily be the opening day starter for the Raiders. Just don't expect to see him keep that job all season.

Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James should both benefit from nice OL upgrades.

SHOES WAITING TO DROP: Somebody is going to trade for Michael Turner, but who? Randy Moss should be moving to Green Bay on Sunday, also.

Devin Hester: 100

From an ESPN article on EA Sports' decision to give Bears return ace Devin Hester a 100-point rating for speed in its Madden 2008 video game. It's the first time the gamemaker has ever given a player a 100 point rating for speed.

Hester has been known to have been lobbying members of the Madden NFL 08 development team for the top speed rating. He's certainly deserving of the honor; after all, there's pure speed and then there's football speed, which measures how fast a player can go weighed down with pads and equipment while 11 men on the other team try to bring him down. As he showed many times during his breakout rookie season, Hester's football speed is top-notch, and now Madden NFL 08 will pay him the ultimate respect by giving him a perfect rating in that category.

This is remarkable, considering the fact that just a year ago, before being drafted in the second round by the Bears, Hester was timed at 4.41 and 4.51 in the 40-yard dash. Decent numbers to be sure, but not even the fastest of his draft class, much less the fastest of all time.

I know this looks bad, but...

OK, down 29-17 with no time left on the clock and everybody gone home looks bad, but I just know we can still pull this one out!

Super Bowl, (& elf panties) bitches!

Rather than attempting to shake the stigma of seriousness from my most recent post via a reprise of the still-popular "Santa sex and elf panties" entry (thank you, John), I've decided to revive Xark's lowbrow appeal by returning to my favorite subject: Myself.

No, wait -- I mean the Chicago Bears (not me, but a psychological extension of me). And rather than just mentioning them, I'm going to attempt to boost traffic by saying something totally, offensively, boldly, outrageously controversial:

THE BEARS ARE GONNA /PWN THE "OVERDOG" COLTS & WIN THE SUPER BOWL! AND THE GUY WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE GAME MVP IS THE ULTIMATE MEDIA/PUNDIT WHIPPING BOY, REX GROSSMAN! AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK, BITCHES!

Also: Oswald did not act alone.

My first Super Bowl

Photo: Nuccio DiNuzzo, Chicago Tribune

I left Chicago -- city of my birth -- when I was 3 or 4. I took up the Chicago Bears habit when I was 11 and Bobby Douglas was their alleged quarterback. I was introduced to Walter Payton on the pages of a Street and Smith's football yearbook, because the Bears were almost never on TV in North Carolina back in the mid-1970s.  When they were on, I watched. Period.

But when they went to the Super Bowl in 1986, I didn't. I was on the Czech border and there was no Armed Forces Network TV there -- just a faint, tinny radio signal in the middle of the night. So the night the Bears won their only Super Bowl, I watched it in my mind's eye in a darkened barracks while the other Op Cell guys slept.

It's been 21 years since that night, and in two weeks -- God willing -- I'll finally get to see them play for a title.

Strangely enough, I actually predicted they would win the NFC way back in August ... and even picked their Super Bowl opponent correctly. Here's hoping I'm right one more time -- because I picked them to win it, too. Here's what I wrote in the conclusion of my prediction post on Aug. 1:

In August of 2006, we stand on the brink of the greatest Bears season since 1985. I recommend we all do our best to enjoy every single second of it. The planets have aligned, and it could be another 20 years since we see anything like this again.

I think one of the secrets to happiness is enjoying things in the moment rather than worrying about how they'll finish up. And this season really made me happy, no matter what the outcome.

NFL Power Rankings: 2006 Final

One last look at the teams from 2006, with glances ahead to the playoffs and the 2007 off-season...

NFL Picks 2006 wrap-up

My first year of picking football games in public is over, and here's my record: 172-82, with a winning percentage of .677. I dropped below .700 with a 6-10 mark in Week 16, but recovered with a relatively strong 10-6 record in the always unpredictable final week of the regular season.

What else did I learn? For the truly geeky, meet me after the jump link for my "Lessons Learned"...

Week 17 NFL Picks

Here's what I wrote a week ago:

Lots of difficult games to project this week, and I've got less confidence in more picks this weeks than I've had all season.

Well, that turned out to be prophetic. I sucked those proverbial donkeys last week on my straight-up picks, going just 6-10 on winners. The only bright spot? My against-the-spread picks, on which I finished 10-6. But if you look at last week's picks you can almost see it coming: I ranked only two games as "confident," while 10 of the remaining 14 got ranked as "Just Guessing." Clearly I just couldn't buy a clue.

The sad part is that my dismal performance finally brought my season average back below 70 percent again (.681), although realistically, that's probably a much more appropriate number. Batting .700 is just gaudy -- it's not something I can expect to do week-in and week-out. So while I was sorry to see the winning percentage go, I'm more relaxed now.

If memory serves, Week 16 was my second losing week of 2006 and undoubtedly the worst week I've had all year. Week 17 is notoriously unpredictable (ask any fantasy football player), but hope springs eternal...

THURSDAY A.M. UPDATE: ATS picks are filed. This week's Best Bets: Seahawks as a road dog, Texans at home (last week's Best Bets went 1-1, and my combined Best Bets record is just 3-4, so clearly this feature hasn't been successful since I started experimenting with it).

Week 17 NFL Power Rankings

These final weeks in the regular season return some strange results -- some of the predictable, some of them not. What we're witnessing now are teams moving in radically different directions. Some, like the Vikings, have already started their rebuilding programs. Others, like Chicago, are tuning up for the playoffs.

And then there's Atlanta. What the HELL was that?