Xark!

Week 16 NFL picks

Since some of you have actually written me e-mails asking if I can post these picks earlier because of your office pool deadlines, I'm going to put up some picks now and flesh this out between now and the Thursday game.

Not that anyone did particularly well by following my picks last week: I had another sub-.700 outing, finishing 11-5 (.687) in winners and 9-6 (.600) against the spread (plus, I went just 2-3 on my point-spread "best bets," proving once again that I don't know a thing about picking against Vegas).

Those five losses dropped my season record to 156-66, but my 2006 winning percentage stayed barely above the .700 mark at .702. So there's that...

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:...ATS Picks filed. This week's best bets ATS: Chiefs and Bears to win and cover...

Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

This week wasn't quite as wild as some others, but several respectable teams wound up pratfalling. And don't look now, but the Steelers are back from the dead...

Grossman in context

For those of you who are fans of normal NFL teams, this may be difficult to understand, but... Rex Grossman of the Chicago Bears is having one of the best statistical years in franchise history.

I just looked at Bears records back to 1933, and here's what I found:

Week 15 NFL picks

Last week was my first attempt at picking against the point spread, and I actually did better picking against Vegas (11-4; .733) than I did picking outright winners (10-6; .625). So it wasn't a great week for yours truly again, dropping my season record to 145-61 and my winning percentage to .704.

To stay above the .700 mark, I'll need to get 12 games right in Week 15.

Against-the-spread picks are filed. This week's best bets: Bears and Saints (favorites); Rams, Titans and Bengals (underdogs).

Hey, geniuses: What about Rex now?

Hey, all you football geniuses out there who just knew that Lovie Smith should have benched Rex Grossman last week! You know who you are. You're the ones who spent last week coming up with absurd amounts of media and blog hype all aimed at demonstrating what putzes Grossman and Smith were for their various sins against Chicago football.

Time for you to step up and remind us just how brilliant you are when it comes to handling young quarterbacks.

Week 15 NFL Power Rankings

The elite group gets smaller after three of the seven from last week went down in surprising defeats; the Titans maintain their inflated ranking -- simply because they're so hot, I refuse to put them down where they belong until somebody actually beats them; and the Chargers are still the best team in football.

Oh, and Rex Grossman and the 11-2 Bears? Reports of their demise have been great exaggerated...

But the big story this week is the significant devaluation of a team that's been near the top of this ranking since the beginning of the season: The Indianapolis Colts.

Week 14 NFL Picks

After a couple of weeks of good luck on my "Just Guessing" picks I took a beating this time, going 2-3 in the category. My record in Week 13 was a so-so 11-5, which brought my season record to 135-55 and lowered my winning percentage to .712.

I've got a couple of upsets in this week's selections that surprised even me...

12/8 UPDATE: As another experiment, I'm going to see what happens if I try to pick against the spread (ATS) as well. Won't include last night's game, obviously...

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

Two of the five elite teams from last week went down to upsets and two teams joined the top tier for the first time this season. Despite that there isn't much of a shakeup in this week's list. At this point in the season, it's pretty clear who has a shot and who doesn't.

There's one team climbing the charts with a bullet this week. Can you guess who it is?

The hex on Rex

I'm on the record as a Rex Grossman supporter, though I'd be lying if I called his performance yesterday against the Vikings anything short of awful.

But that doesn't mean you bench the guy. Instead, it means that now is the time Bears fans need to rally around their young quarterback, who is learning his craft in the national spotlight that comes with a 10-2 record, snarky sports media, and a football-crazed city that's used to distrusting its quarterbacks (because they usually suck).

According to what I'm reading, Chicago's sports media is convinced that the majority of Bears fans in Chicago want Rex benched in favor of journeyman Brian Griese. Judging by the boos that cascaded out of the Soldier Field stands after a first-quarter three-and-out Sunday, they might just be right.

But Bears fans who want to bench Grossman might as well be pulling for another team.

Week 13 NFL Picks

I got lucky for the second week in a row, going 13-2. That doesn't make me an expert though, or I would have noticed that I neglected to pick the Cincinnati v. Cleveland game. Because I'm a dork.

Can I stay lucky for the third straight week? Can I keep my season winning percentage at .714?

I wouldn't bet on it.